⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Tomorrow I will be sharing an updated valuation analysis on $MELI 📈

Believe it or not, $MELI trades for a similar valuation today as it did 5 months ago when it traded for ~$1,700 🤯

5 months ago I stated:

“I consider $MELI a strong buy closer to $1,700💵 (~9% below today’s price) where I can reasonably expect ~14% CAGR while assuming a 36x end multiple, ensuring some margin of safety”

Since reaching my $1,700 target $MELI shares have rallied +46%✅

As I suggested in the post attached below👇🏽

“$MELI boasts an expansive growth trajectory, fueled by powerful network effects that should drive sustained momentum

Key factors contributing to its promising outlook include 🔑

1. Margin expansion

2. Unparalleled access to Latin America's burgeoning economy

3. Network effects that produce self-reinforcing dynamics ensuring long-term competitiveness, among other things

Those buying $MELI today at $1856💵 are buying it for a fair price, with little margin of safety — however, these growth rates have to be revised down substantially for $MELI to miss the mark, even if the company grows earnings at 25% CAGR over the next 5 years, shareholders will likely end up with a decent return

I consider $MELI a strong buy closer to $1,700💵 (~9% below today’s price) where I can reasonably expect ~14% CAGR while assuming a 36x end multiple, ensuring some margin of safety”
____

While a rapid appreciation in share price can be gratifying, it's often counterintuitive for long-term investors

Ideally, I prefer to see these high-quality businesses trade at attractive valuations for an extended period, allowing for the accumulation of shares at a more favorable price

This enables us to build a larger position in a company we believe in, ultimately increasing our potential for long-term returns - Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @Luke__Stan: @DimitryNakhla Thanks for taking the time to share such thoughtful and detailed comments! I'm definitely going to take some time to reflect on what you said and think more deeply about my trading strategy.

BTW, your posts have been incredibly helpful—not just to me, but to all your followers.
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AkhenOsiris
NVDA should save some money and do a RIF on their sales force focused on foreign sales. The US Gov't is now the de facto seller of NVDA GPUs.
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AkhenOsiris
RT @lokoyacap: The shiv move would be waiting until midday to cut the tariffs after everyone spends all night saying nothing real happened
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⁠Wall St Engine
Today's Key Events (All EST) — 05/13/2025

05:00: Trump at Saudi State Visit
06:00: US NFIB Business Optimism Index x
08:30: US CPI
08:55: US Redbook YoY

Before Open 👇
04:30: $JD
05:00: On Holding AG $ONON
05:00: Tencent Music Entertainment Group $TME
06:30: Sea Limited $SE
06:55: Under Armour $UAA
07:00: CyberArk $CYBR
07:25: Honda Motor Co $HMC
07:05: Silicon Laboratories $SLAB
07:10: Camtek Ltd. $CAMT
07:30: Legend Biotech Corporation $LEGN
07:30: Landstar System, Inc. $LSTR

After Hours 👇
16:00: Gevo Inc $GEVO
16:00: Vaxart, Inc. $VXRT
16:00: Exelixis, Inc. $EXEL
16:05: Oklo Inc. $OKLO
16:05: GRAIL Inc. $GRAL
16:05: CAE Inc. $CAE
16:15: Nu Holdings Ltd. $NU
16:15: Evolution Petroleum Corp. $EPM
16:15: KinderCare Learning Companies, Inc. $KLC
18:15: Danaos Corp. $DAC
19:00: Karman Space & Defense $KRMN
20:35: Smart Sand, Inc. $SND
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⁠Wall St Engine
SOFTBANK VISION FUND POSTS FY LOSS

SoftBank’s Vision Fund swung to a ¥115B ($778M) pretax loss for the fiscal year ended March, reversing a ¥128B profit a year earlier. Gains from Didi and Coupang were offset by sharp markdowns in names like AutoStore, and overall investment gains dropped 40% Y/Y.

SoftBank remains deep in the AI race — backing OpenAI with $30B and committing to acquire Ampere for $6.5B. It’s also a partner in Trump’s Stargate AI infra push. Still, SoftBank shares are down 17% YTD.
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⁠Wall St Engine
Pres. Trump has officially landed in Saudi Arabia for his 1st overseas trip this term. He was welcomed in Riyadh by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. He is expected to push for investment deals, w/ regional geopolitics & economic ties also on the agenda.

https://t.co/qUJZcBCQbQ
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⁠Wall St Engine
Nissan plans to cut its number of vehicle production plants from 17 to 10 and is holding off on its full-year profit forecast due to U.S. tariff uncertainty. The company’s results are expected to reduce Renault’s Q1 net income by about €2.2 billion.
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⁠Wall St Engine
CHINA REMOVES BAN ON BOEING $BA DELIVERIES AFTER US TRADE TRUCE https://t.co/Du2eFnvzcj
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⁠Wall St Engine
Following the US-China tariff truce, Chinese rare-earth exporters are still waiting to hear whether they can resume sales to the US. Neither side has confirmed if Beijing’s export controls—adde.d Apr 4—have been lifted. - BBG
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⁠Wall St Engine
With Trump’s 90-day tariff cut in play, companies like Therabody and Bogg Bag are restarting production and racing to ship out stock held in China. Ports like Boston are seeing demand pick back up, but shipping delays and rising container prices are likely. (BBG)
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⁠Wall St Engine
$GOOGL FACES €12B IN CIVIL CLAIMS ACROSS EUROPE

Dozens of price comparison sites are suing Google for damages after the EU’s €2.4B antitrust ruling. Claims span 7countries, with major suits in London, Berlin & Amsterdam. Plaintiffs allege unfairly diverted web traffic &profits
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⁠Wall St Engine
Mercedes-Benz will move output of its top-selling GLC to Alabama, U.S. by late 2027 as Trump’s tariffs drive up import costs. The GLC, which starts just under $50K, saw U.S. sales jump 58% last year to over 64,000 units.
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⁠Wall St Engine
ELON MUSK, SAM ALTMAN, JENSEN HUANG TO ATTEND LUNCH WITH TRUMP, MBS IN RIYADH https://t.co/qLDuGqKOH1
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⁠Wall St Engine
Barclays Upgrades $SWK to Overweight from Equalweight, Raises PT to $90 from $69

Analyst comments: "We upgrade our rating on SWK to Overweight from Equalweight, alongside an increase in our EPS estimates, and our price target moves to $90. We highlight the following: 1. EPS 'worst case' looks to be off the table for now. Following the news that U.S.–China tariffs would be significantly lower than what was discussed in April, we have revised our EPS estimates to be closer to where they sat prior to April 2, i.e., nearer to $5 in 2025, which compares with the initial EPS guide of ~$5.25, and the recent post-April 2 framework scenario of ~$4.50. In 2026, we estimate EPS of $5.76 vs the Street at $5.64, based on organic sales growth of +4% and adjusted operating margin expansion of +100bps. As a reminder, SWK had screened as the most vulnerable within multi-industry to U.S.–China tariffs. Our revised estimates now embed 30% U.S. tariffs on China and 10% China tariffs on the U.S., down from 145% and 125% prior."

Analyst: Julian Mitchell
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⁠Wall St Engine
Wolfe Research Upgrades $FSLR to Outperform from Peerperform, Sets PT at $221

Analyst comments: "We rate FSLR an Outperform as a direct way to benefit from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) as well as anti-China sentiment. The proposed bill by the House Ways and Means Committee shortens the 45X runway by a year, but in our view, likely helps resolve any lingering investor concerns over election fears jeopardizing IRA tax credits. The fact that we're seeing Republican support and a tax bill reaffirming 45X likely suggests the credit is safe from repeal. Downside risks include warranty issues related to Series 7 panels, perceived disadvantages in thin film technology, new competition in the U.S. market that eventually drives down average selling prices, customer project delays or contract cancellation risk, and logistics or freight issues that can cause negative surprises."

Analyst: Steve Fleishman
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