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Wall St Engine
NASDAQ 100 $QQQ RECORDS 2ND BIGGEST DAILY GAIN SINCE MAR. 2022 https://t.co/7LNS9GnTdc
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NASDAQ 100 $QQQ RECORDS 2ND BIGGEST DAILY GAIN SINCE MAR. 2022 https://t.co/7LNS9GnTdc
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Wall St Engine
$ACHR | Archer Aviation Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: Not specified (pre-revenue stage)
🔹 Net Loss: $(93.4)M, improved from $(116.5)M YoY
🔹 Adj EBITDA: $(109.0)M, widened from $(86.8)M YoY
🔹 Total Operating Expenses (GAAP): $144.0M, flat YoY
🔹 Non-GAAP Operating Expenses: $113.1M, +$24M YoY
🔹 Cash & Equivalents: $1.03B, +$195.9M QoQ (record high)
🔹 Cash Burn (Ops + Investing): $(104.6)M
🔹 Shares Outstanding: ~540.4M
🔹 EPS (GAAP): $(0.17), improved from $(0.36) YoY
Strategic & Commercial Updates
🔸 UAE launch on track – Midnight aircraft delivery expected in coming months; infrastructure approved
🔸 First "Launch Edition" customers: Abu Dhabi Aviation & Ethiopian Airlines
🔸 Palantir partnership – Joint development of AI-based aviation systems
🔸 NYC air taxi network with United Airlines – Ongoing infrastructure and operational planning
Q2 2025 Guidance
🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: $(100)M to $(120)M
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$ACHR | Archer Aviation Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: Not specified (pre-revenue stage)
🔹 Net Loss: $(93.4)M, improved from $(116.5)M YoY
🔹 Adj EBITDA: $(109.0)M, widened from $(86.8)M YoY
🔹 Total Operating Expenses (GAAP): $144.0M, flat YoY
🔹 Non-GAAP Operating Expenses: $113.1M, +$24M YoY
🔹 Cash & Equivalents: $1.03B, +$195.9M QoQ (record high)
🔹 Cash Burn (Ops + Investing): $(104.6)M
🔹 Shares Outstanding: ~540.4M
🔹 EPS (GAAP): $(0.17), improved from $(0.36) YoY
Strategic & Commercial Updates
🔸 UAE launch on track – Midnight aircraft delivery expected in coming months; infrastructure approved
🔸 First "Launch Edition" customers: Abu Dhabi Aviation & Ethiopian Airlines
🔸 Palantir partnership – Joint development of AI-based aviation systems
🔸 NYC air taxi network with United Airlines – Ongoing infrastructure and operational planning
Q2 2025 Guidance
🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: $(100)M to $(120)M
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Wall St Engine
$ASTS Q1'25 Business Update:
Commercialization Outlook
🔹 Expects H2 2025 revenue opportunity of $50–75M from early network deployments
🔹 Continuing rollout of direct-to-device broadband with AT&T, Rakuten, Verizon, Vodafone
🔹 Planning broadband activations across U.S., Europe, Japan using premium low-band spectrum
Technology & Network Highlights
🔸 Completed two-way broadband video calls using unmodified smartphones in U.S., Europe, and Japan
🔸 Block 1 satellites: 693 sq ft; 10x BW3 capacity
🔸 Block 2 satellites: 2,400 sq ft; 100x BW3 capacity
Strategic & Operational Developments
🔸 Announced multi-provider satellite launch plan with five launches scheduled over 6–9 months
🔸 Manufacturing ramp: targeting 6 satellites/month cadence in 2025; phased array cadence to be met by Q3
🔸 On track with manufacturing of 40 Block 2 BlueBird satellites, procuring for over 50 total
🔸 Initiated gateway equipment bookings of $13.6M in Q1, expected ~$10M per quarter in 2025
🔸 Signed new DIU contract (up to $20M) for U.S. Government support via a prime contractor
Other Metrics:
🔹 Cash Position: $874.5M as of March 31, 2025 (vs. $567.5M as of Dec 31, 2024)
🔹 Adjusted Operating Expenses: $44.9M (vs. $40.8M in Q4 2024)
🔹 Capital Expenditures: $124.1M (vs. $86.0M in Q4 2024)
Regulatory & Spectrum Progress
🔸 Received FCC STA for Band 14 FirstNet testing (public safety broadband)
🔸 Established coordination agreement with U.S. National Science Foundation
🔸 Signed long-term access to 45 MHz of premium mid-band U.S. spectrum
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$ASTS Q1'25 Business Update:
Commercialization Outlook
🔹 Expects H2 2025 revenue opportunity of $50–75M from early network deployments
🔹 Continuing rollout of direct-to-device broadband with AT&T, Rakuten, Verizon, Vodafone
🔹 Planning broadband activations across U.S., Europe, Japan using premium low-band spectrum
Technology & Network Highlights
🔸 Completed two-way broadband video calls using unmodified smartphones in U.S., Europe, and Japan
🔸 Block 1 satellites: 693 sq ft; 10x BW3 capacity
🔸 Block 2 satellites: 2,400 sq ft; 100x BW3 capacity
Strategic & Operational Developments
🔸 Announced multi-provider satellite launch plan with five launches scheduled over 6–9 months
🔸 Manufacturing ramp: targeting 6 satellites/month cadence in 2025; phased array cadence to be met by Q3
🔸 On track with manufacturing of 40 Block 2 BlueBird satellites, procuring for over 50 total
🔸 Initiated gateway equipment bookings of $13.6M in Q1, expected ~$10M per quarter in 2025
🔸 Signed new DIU contract (up to $20M) for U.S. Government support via a prime contractor
Other Metrics:
🔹 Cash Position: $874.5M as of March 31, 2025 (vs. $567.5M as of Dec 31, 2024)
🔹 Adjusted Operating Expenses: $44.9M (vs. $40.8M in Q4 2024)
🔹 Capital Expenditures: $124.1M (vs. $86.0M in Q4 2024)
Regulatory & Spectrum Progress
🔸 Received FCC STA for Band 14 FirstNet testing (public safety broadband)
🔸 Established coordination agreement with U.S. National Science Foundation
🔸 Signed long-term access to 45 MHz of premium mid-band U.S. spectrum
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Offshore
Video
The All-In Podcast
Chamath: USA Needs to Increase the Appetite for Risk Capital, or Face Stagnation 🇺🇸📈
@chamath laid out how the US can jumpstart a declining private investment landscape:
-- de-regulation ✂️
-- encouraging competition 👊
-- incentivizing exits 💰
"It's hard to make money. It's just so hard."
"And if you view making money as some derogatory thing and you put a bunch of impediments in the way, the downstream impact is: interesting ways to make money will be out of fashion, and simple ways of making money will be the only things that people do."
"The problem is that society doesn't move forward if all you do are simple things."
"You need people who are willing to put risk capital to buy these lottery tickets."
"And if you marginalize the upside, you're just gonna have exactly that: a stagnant society of marginal things that doesn't move along."
"If you look, for example, in the last five year period in China or Canada, two totally different political regimes, but they both had the same thing happen."
"Which is, the amount of investment capital that went into both of those countries fell off of a cliff for two totally separate reasons."
"And you can look historically back, and we know what this looks like, which is countries stagnate in the absence of investment and risk capital."
"Not to slag Europe, but part of what Europe got wrong was that compact didn't exist."
"Too many administrators, too many hall monitors, not enough ability to put risk capital to work and actually get gigantic outcomes."
"The most important thing we can do on that dimension is to figure out how to have less regulation, have these companies fight it out, and create the incentives for these smaller businesses to be bought and or to go public."
"And unless people fundamentally embrace that idea, we're gonna lose."
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Chamath: USA Needs to Increase the Appetite for Risk Capital, or Face Stagnation 🇺🇸📈
@chamath laid out how the US can jumpstart a declining private investment landscape:
-- de-regulation ✂️
-- encouraging competition 👊
-- incentivizing exits 💰
"It's hard to make money. It's just so hard."
"And if you view making money as some derogatory thing and you put a bunch of impediments in the way, the downstream impact is: interesting ways to make money will be out of fashion, and simple ways of making money will be the only things that people do."
"The problem is that society doesn't move forward if all you do are simple things."
"You need people who are willing to put risk capital to buy these lottery tickets."
"And if you marginalize the upside, you're just gonna have exactly that: a stagnant society of marginal things that doesn't move along."
"If you look, for example, in the last five year period in China or Canada, two totally different political regimes, but they both had the same thing happen."
"Which is, the amount of investment capital that went into both of those countries fell off of a cliff for two totally separate reasons."
"And you can look historically back, and we know what this looks like, which is countries stagnate in the absence of investment and risk capital."
"Not to slag Europe, but part of what Europe got wrong was that compact didn't exist."
"Too many administrators, too many hall monitors, not enough ability to put risk capital to work and actually get gigantic outcomes."
"The most important thing we can do on that dimension is to figure out how to have less regulation, have these companies fight it out, and create the incentives for these smaller businesses to be bought and or to go public."
"And unless people fundamentally embrace that idea, we're gonna lose."
tweet
Offshore
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Wall St Engine
MCDONALD’S $MCD 🇺🇸 is launching its biggest hiring spree in 5 years—aiming to bring on 375,000 workers across its 13,000 U.S. restaurants this summer as it gears up for expansion. That’s more than double the number of jobs the entire U.S. economy added in April. https://t.co/5ndJVl3kuK
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MCDONALD’S $MCD 🇺🇸 is launching its biggest hiring spree in 5 years—aiming to bring on 375,000 workers across its 13,000 U.S. restaurants this summer as it gears up for expansion. That’s more than double the number of jobs the entire U.S. economy added in April. https://t.co/5ndJVl3kuK
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Wall St Engine
$AMC is cutting ticket prices by 50% every Wednesday starting July 9 to boost weekday traffic. The discount applies to all formats—including IMAX—but is only available for AMC loyalty members. Comes as the chain sees early Q2 box office recovery after a rough Q1. https://t.co/LpsOjkkMqg
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$AMC is cutting ticket prices by 50% every Wednesday starting July 9 to boost weekday traffic. The discount applies to all formats—including IMAX—but is only available for AMC loyalty members. Comes as the chain sees early Q2 box office recovery after a rough Q1. https://t.co/LpsOjkkMqg
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
5 months ago I stated:
“I consider $MELI a strong buy closer to $1,700💵 (~9% below today’s price) where I can reasonably expect ~14% CAGR while assuming a 36x end multiple, ensuring some margin of safety”
Since reaching my $1,700 target $MELI shares have rallied +46%✅
As I suggested in the post attached below👇🏽
“$MELI boasts an expansive growth trajectory, fueled by powerful network effects that should drive sustained momentum
Key factors contributing to its promising outlook include 🔑
1. Margin expansion
2. Unparalleled access to Latin America's burgeoning economy
3. Network effects that produce self-reinforcing dynamics ensuring long-term competitiveness, among other things
Those buying $MELI today at $1856💵 are buying it for a fair price, with little margin of safety — however, these growth rates have to be revised down substantially for $MELI to miss the mark, even if the company grows earnings at 25% CAGR over the next 5 years, shareholders will likely end up with a decent return
I consider $MELI a strong buy closer to $1,700💵 (~9% below today’s price) where I can reasonably expect ~14% CAGR while assuming a 36x end multiple, ensuring some margin of safety”
____
While a rapid appreciation in share price can be gratifying, it's often counterintuitive for long-term investors
Ideally, I prefer to see these high-quality businesses trade at attractive valuations for an extended period, allowing for the accumulation of shares at a more favorable price
This enables us to build a larger position in a company we believe in, ultimately increasing our potential for long-term returns
A quality valuation analysis on $MELI 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 49.60x
•1-Year Mean: 48.36x
As you can see, $MELI appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive roughly the same in earnings per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $MELI is a great business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $6.67B
•Long-Term Debt: $3.04B
$MELI has a strong balance sheet, an ok BB+ S&P Credit Rating & 20x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL🆗➡️✅
•2019: (4.8%)
•2020: 3.7%
•2021: 8.1%
•2022: 14.2%
•2023: 25.3%
•LTM: 20.1%
RETURN ON EQUITY🆗➡️✅
•2019: (14.2%)
•2020: (0.1%)
•2021: 5.2%
•2022: 28.7%
•2023: 40.3%
•LTM: 42.6%
$MELI has strong and improved return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2018: $1.44B
•2023: $14.47B
•CAGR: 58.64%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2018: $133.35M
•2023: $4.63B
•CAGR: 203.29%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2018: ($0.82)
•2023: $22.84
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 44.53M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 51.28M
MARGINS🆗➡️✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 52.5%
•LTM Operating Margins: 11.4%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 7.8%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive roughly the same in EPS
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $MELI has to grow earnings at a 24.80% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (24.80%) required growth rate:
2024E: $33.59 (47.1% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $45.76 (36.2% YoY)
2026E: $62.50 (36.6% YoY)
$MELI has an ok track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $MELI ends 2026 with $62.50 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
40x P/E: $2500💵 … ~15.5% CAGR
38x P/E: $2375💵 … ~12.7% CAGR
36x P/E: $2250💵 … ~9.7% CAGR
34x P/E: $2125💵 … ~6.7% CAGR
As you can see, $MELI appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >38x earnings (a multiple justified by its growth rate & moat)
$MELI boasts an expansive growth traj[...]
5 months ago I stated:
“I consider $MELI a strong buy closer to $1,700💵 (~9% below today’s price) where I can reasonably expect ~14% CAGR while assuming a 36x end multiple, ensuring some margin of safety”
Since reaching my $1,700 target $MELI shares have rallied +46%✅
As I suggested in the post attached below👇🏽
“$MELI boasts an expansive growth trajectory, fueled by powerful network effects that should drive sustained momentum
Key factors contributing to its promising outlook include 🔑
1. Margin expansion
2. Unparalleled access to Latin America's burgeoning economy
3. Network effects that produce self-reinforcing dynamics ensuring long-term competitiveness, among other things
Those buying $MELI today at $1856💵 are buying it for a fair price, with little margin of safety — however, these growth rates have to be revised down substantially for $MELI to miss the mark, even if the company grows earnings at 25% CAGR over the next 5 years, shareholders will likely end up with a decent return
I consider $MELI a strong buy closer to $1,700💵 (~9% below today’s price) where I can reasonably expect ~14% CAGR while assuming a 36x end multiple, ensuring some margin of safety”
____
While a rapid appreciation in share price can be gratifying, it's often counterintuitive for long-term investors
Ideally, I prefer to see these high-quality businesses trade at attractive valuations for an extended period, allowing for the accumulation of shares at a more favorable price
This enables us to build a larger position in a company we believe in, ultimately increasing our potential for long-term returns
A quality valuation analysis on $MELI 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 49.60x
•1-Year Mean: 48.36x
As you can see, $MELI appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive roughly the same in earnings per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $MELI is a great business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $6.67B
•Long-Term Debt: $3.04B
$MELI has a strong balance sheet, an ok BB+ S&P Credit Rating & 20x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL🆗➡️✅
•2019: (4.8%)
•2020: 3.7%
•2021: 8.1%
•2022: 14.2%
•2023: 25.3%
•LTM: 20.1%
RETURN ON EQUITY🆗➡️✅
•2019: (14.2%)
•2020: (0.1%)
•2021: 5.2%
•2022: 28.7%
•2023: 40.3%
•LTM: 42.6%
$MELI has strong and improved return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2018: $1.44B
•2023: $14.47B
•CAGR: 58.64%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2018: $133.35M
•2023: $4.63B
•CAGR: 203.29%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2018: ($0.82)
•2023: $22.84
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 44.53M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 51.28M
MARGINS🆗➡️✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 52.5%
•LTM Operating Margins: 11.4%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 7.8%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive roughly the same in EPS
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $MELI has to grow earnings at a 24.80% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (24.80%) required growth rate:
2024E: $33.59 (47.1% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $45.76 (36.2% YoY)
2026E: $62.50 (36.6% YoY)
$MELI has an ok track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $MELI ends 2026 with $62.50 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
40x P/E: $2500💵 … ~15.5% CAGR
38x P/E: $2375💵 … ~12.7% CAGR
36x P/E: $2250💵 … ~9.7% CAGR
34x P/E: $2125💵 … ~6.7% CAGR
As you can see, $MELI appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >38x earnings (a multiple justified by its growth rate & moat)
$MELI boasts an expansive growth traj[...]