Wall St Engine
$AFRM | Affirm Q3'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $783.1M (Est. $781.7M) 🟢; UP +36% YoY
🔹 EPS: $0.01 (Est. -$0.01) 🟢
🔹 Adj. Oper Income: $173.7M; UP +$95M YoY
🔹 Adj. Oper Margin: 22.2%; UP +860 bps YoY
🔹 RLTC: $352.6M; UP +53% YoY
🔹 GMV: $8.6B; UP +36% YoY
Guidance
🔹 FY25 Revenue: $3.163B–$3.193B (Est. $3.177B) 🟡
🔹 FY25 GMV: $35.7B–$36.0B
🔹 Q4 Revenue: $815M–$845M (Est. $841.6M) 🟡
🔹 Q4 GMV: $9.4B–$9.7B
🔹 Q4 Adj. Operating Margin: 23%–25%
Q1 Segment & Operational Metrics
🔹 Affirm Card GMV: $807M; UP +115% YoY
🔹 Direct-to-Consumer GMV: $2.4B; UP +50% YoY
🔹 Monthly 0% APR GMV: +44% YoY (13% of GMV, highest in 2 years)
🔹 Total Transactions: 31.3M; UP +46% YoY
🔹 Active Consumers: 21.9M; UP +23% YoY
🔹 Cardholders: 1.9M+; more than doubled YoY
🔹 Active Merchants: 358K; UP +23% YoY
🔹 Repeat Usage Rate: 94%
Credit & Capital Metrics
🔹 Avg. Funding Cost: 7.1%; DOWN -50 bps YoY
🔹 Loans Sold: UP +72% YoY
🔹 30+ Day Delinquency Rate: 2.4%; DOWN -5 bps QoQ
🔹 Capital Liquidity: $2.1B (cash + securities)
🔹 Funding Capacity: $23.3B (supports >$50B in annual GMV)
🔹 Equity Capital Required Ratio: 4.6%
Strategic & Product Updates
🔸 Extended Shopify partnership through June 2028 (Canada beta live, UK next)
🔸 Signed new deals with Adyen, JPMorgan Payments, and Costco
🔸 Announced 10-year UATP partnership for scaling travel offerings
🔸 Launched AI-driven real-time merchant dispute adjudication
🔸 Dollar-based net expansion: >115%; Merchant renewal rate: >97%
Management Commentary
🔸 Affirm outpacing peers in GMV growth and RLTC efficiency
🔸 Rapid growth in merchant-funded 0% APR adoption
🔸 Affirm Card in-store GMV up over 150% YoY
🔸 Confident in macro resilience via flexible credit and AI-based risk models
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$AFRM | Affirm Q3'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $783.1M (Est. $781.7M) 🟢; UP +36% YoY
🔹 EPS: $0.01 (Est. -$0.01) 🟢
🔹 Adj. Oper Income: $173.7M; UP +$95M YoY
🔹 Adj. Oper Margin: 22.2%; UP +860 bps YoY
🔹 RLTC: $352.6M; UP +53% YoY
🔹 GMV: $8.6B; UP +36% YoY
Guidance
🔹 FY25 Revenue: $3.163B–$3.193B (Est. $3.177B) 🟡
🔹 FY25 GMV: $35.7B–$36.0B
🔹 Q4 Revenue: $815M–$845M (Est. $841.6M) 🟡
🔹 Q4 GMV: $9.4B–$9.7B
🔹 Q4 Adj. Operating Margin: 23%–25%
Q1 Segment & Operational Metrics
🔹 Affirm Card GMV: $807M; UP +115% YoY
🔹 Direct-to-Consumer GMV: $2.4B; UP +50% YoY
🔹 Monthly 0% APR GMV: +44% YoY (13% of GMV, highest in 2 years)
🔹 Total Transactions: 31.3M; UP +46% YoY
🔹 Active Consumers: 21.9M; UP +23% YoY
🔹 Cardholders: 1.9M+; more than doubled YoY
🔹 Active Merchants: 358K; UP +23% YoY
🔹 Repeat Usage Rate: 94%
Credit & Capital Metrics
🔹 Avg. Funding Cost: 7.1%; DOWN -50 bps YoY
🔹 Loans Sold: UP +72% YoY
🔹 30+ Day Delinquency Rate: 2.4%; DOWN -5 bps QoQ
🔹 Capital Liquidity: $2.1B (cash + securities)
🔹 Funding Capacity: $23.3B (supports >$50B in annual GMV)
🔹 Equity Capital Required Ratio: 4.6%
Strategic & Product Updates
🔸 Extended Shopify partnership through June 2028 (Canada beta live, UK next)
🔸 Signed new deals with Adyen, JPMorgan Payments, and Costco
🔸 Announced 10-year UATP partnership for scaling travel offerings
🔸 Launched AI-driven real-time merchant dispute adjudication
🔸 Dollar-based net expansion: >115%; Merchant renewal rate: >97%
Management Commentary
🔸 Affirm outpacing peers in GMV growth and RLTC efficiency
🔸 Rapid growth in merchant-funded 0% APR adoption
🔸 Affirm Card in-store GMV up over 150% YoY
🔸 Confident in macro resilience via flexible credit and AI-based risk models
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Wall St Engine
$DKNG | DraftKings Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $1.41B (Est. $1.44B) 🔴; UP +20% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.12 (Est. $0.22) 🔴
🔹 MUPs: 4.3M; UP +28% YoY
🔹 Avg. Revenue per MUP: $108; -5% YoY
FY25 Guide (Lowered)
🔹 Revenue: $6.20B–$6.40B (Prior: $6.30B–$6.60B) 🔴; vs. Est. $7.61B
🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $800M–$900M (Prior: $900M–$1.0B)
Product & Geographic Highlights
🔹 Live with mobile sports betting in 25 U.S. states + D.C. (~49% of U.S. population)
🔹 iGaming live in 5 states (~11% of U.S. population)
🔹 Active in Ontario, Canada (~40% of Canadian population)
🔹 Missouri legalization passed; launch pending regulatory approval
Management Commentary
🔸 CEO Jason Robins: “If not for customer-friendly outcomes in March, we would be raising guidance. Product enhancements are driving outperformance and strong customer engagement.”
🔸 CFO Alan Ellingson: “Healthy balance sheet supported share repurchases in Q1.”
🔹 Share Repurchase: 3.7M shares in Q1 under existing buyback program
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$DKNG | DraftKings Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $1.41B (Est. $1.44B) 🔴; UP +20% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.12 (Est. $0.22) 🔴
🔹 MUPs: 4.3M; UP +28% YoY
🔹 Avg. Revenue per MUP: $108; -5% YoY
FY25 Guide (Lowered)
🔹 Revenue: $6.20B–$6.40B (Prior: $6.30B–$6.60B) 🔴; vs. Est. $7.61B
🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $800M–$900M (Prior: $900M–$1.0B)
Product & Geographic Highlights
🔹 Live with mobile sports betting in 25 U.S. states + D.C. (~49% of U.S. population)
🔹 iGaming live in 5 states (~11% of U.S. population)
🔹 Active in Ontario, Canada (~40% of Canadian population)
🔹 Missouri legalization passed; launch pending regulatory approval
Management Commentary
🔸 CEO Jason Robins: “If not for customer-friendly outcomes in March, we would be raising guidance. Product enhancements are driving outperformance and strong customer engagement.”
🔸 CFO Alan Ellingson: “Healthy balance sheet supported share repurchases in Q1.”
🔹 Share Repurchase: 3.7M shares in Q1 under existing buyback program
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Investing visuals
$NET Q1 Earnings 🚨
• Revenue $479 Mln vs Est. $469 Mln (2% beat)
• EPS $0.16 vs Est. $0.16 (in line)
Shares are up 4% after hour https://t.co/yYqcC2itet
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$NET Q1 Earnings 🚨
• Revenue $479 Mln vs Est. $469 Mln (2% beat)
• EPS $0.16 vs Est. $0.16 (in line)
Shares are up 4% after hour https://t.co/yYqcC2itet
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Wall St Engine
$COIN | Coinbase Q1'5 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $2.03B (Est. $2.2B) 🔴
🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.24 (Est. $2.09) 🔴
🔹 Transaction Revenue: $1.26B (Est. $1.33B) 🔴
🔹 Subscription & Services Revenue: $698M (Est. $702.5M) 🔴; UP +37% YoY, +9% QoQ
🔹 Trading Volume: $393B (Est. $392.7B) 🟢
Q2 '25 Guidance
🔹 Subscription & Services Revenue: $600M–$680M
🔹 Tech + G&A Expenses: $700M–$750M
🔹 Sales & Marketing Expenses: $215M–$315M
🔹 April Transaction Revenue: ~$240M
Other Key Metrics:
🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $930M
🔹 Net Income: $66M
🔹 Adjusted Net Income: $527M
🔹 Gross USDC Balances in Coinbase Products: $12.3B; UP +49% QoQ
🔹 Derivatives Volume: $804B; Market share up significantly
🔹 Assets Under Custody: $212B; UP +$25B QoQ
Strategic & Product Updates
🔸 Acquiring Deribit for $2.9B (cash + stock) to become leading crypto options exchange
🔸 U.S. Executive Order establishes Strategic Bitcoin Reserve — seen as validation of Bitcoin as a sovereign financial asset
🔸 SEC lawsuit dismissed with prejudice — major legal win for Coinbase
🔸 Registered as VASP in Argentina and India; expanded global regulatory footprint
🔸 Launched Bitcoin-backed USDC loans; over $160M issued
🔸 Coinbase One Premium and Verified Pools scaling across retail and institutional clients
🔸 Base L2 network achieved $4B in stablecoin balances; launched Flashblocks for sub-second transaction speed
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$COIN | Coinbase Q1'5 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $2.03B (Est. $2.2B) 🔴
🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.24 (Est. $2.09) 🔴
🔹 Transaction Revenue: $1.26B (Est. $1.33B) 🔴
🔹 Subscription & Services Revenue: $698M (Est. $702.5M) 🔴; UP +37% YoY, +9% QoQ
🔹 Trading Volume: $393B (Est. $392.7B) 🟢
Q2 '25 Guidance
🔹 Subscription & Services Revenue: $600M–$680M
🔹 Tech + G&A Expenses: $700M–$750M
🔹 Sales & Marketing Expenses: $215M–$315M
🔹 April Transaction Revenue: ~$240M
Other Key Metrics:
🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $930M
🔹 Net Income: $66M
🔹 Adjusted Net Income: $527M
🔹 Gross USDC Balances in Coinbase Products: $12.3B; UP +49% QoQ
🔹 Derivatives Volume: $804B; Market share up significantly
🔹 Assets Under Custody: $212B; UP +$25B QoQ
Strategic & Product Updates
🔸 Acquiring Deribit for $2.9B (cash + stock) to become leading crypto options exchange
🔸 U.S. Executive Order establishes Strategic Bitcoin Reserve — seen as validation of Bitcoin as a sovereign financial asset
🔸 SEC lawsuit dismissed with prejudice — major legal win for Coinbase
🔸 Registered as VASP in Argentina and India; expanded global regulatory footprint
🔸 Launched Bitcoin-backed USDC loans; over $160M issued
🔸 Coinbase One Premium and Verified Pools scaling across retail and institutional clients
🔸 Base L2 network achieved $4B in stablecoin balances; launched Flashblocks for sub-second transaction speed
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Wall St Engine
$NET | Cloudflare Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $479.1M (Est. $469.65M) 🟢; +27% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.16 (Est. $0.16) 🟡
Guidance
🔹 FY25 Revenue: $2.09B–$2.094B (Est. $2.09B) 🟡
🔹 FY25 EPS: $0.79–$0.80 (Est. $0.82) 🔴
🔹 Q2 Revenue: $500M–$501M (Est. $500.9M) 🟡
🔹 Q2 EPS: $0.18 (Est. $0.19) 🔴
Other Metrics:
🔹 Adj. Operating Income: $56M
🔹 Adj. Gross Profit: $369.3M (77.1% margin)
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $52.9M; UP +49% YoY
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $145.8M; UP +98% YoY
🔹 Cash & Short-term Investments: $1.91B
Strategic Highlights
🔸 Landed largest contract in company history ($100M+), driven by Workers platform
🔸 Signed longest-term SASE deal to date
🔸 Achieved highest YoY net new ACV growth in 3 years
CEO Matthew Prince Commentary
🔸 “We kicked off 2025 with confidence, momentum, and strong results.”
🔸 “Innovation wins—from networking, to security, to AI, Cloudflare is the envy of the industry.”
🔸 “Deal size, length, and caliber of customers show Cloudflare’s growing strategic value.”
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$NET | Cloudflare Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $479.1M (Est. $469.65M) 🟢; +27% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.16 (Est. $0.16) 🟡
Guidance
🔹 FY25 Revenue: $2.09B–$2.094B (Est. $2.09B) 🟡
🔹 FY25 EPS: $0.79–$0.80 (Est. $0.82) 🔴
🔹 Q2 Revenue: $500M–$501M (Est. $500.9M) 🟡
🔹 Q2 EPS: $0.18 (Est. $0.19) 🔴
Other Metrics:
🔹 Adj. Operating Income: $56M
🔹 Adj. Gross Profit: $369.3M (77.1% margin)
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $52.9M; UP +49% YoY
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $145.8M; UP +98% YoY
🔹 Cash & Short-term Investments: $1.91B
Strategic Highlights
🔸 Landed largest contract in company history ($100M+), driven by Workers platform
🔸 Signed longest-term SASE deal to date
🔸 Achieved highest YoY net new ACV growth in 3 years
CEO Matthew Prince Commentary
🔸 “We kicked off 2025 with confidence, momentum, and strong results.”
🔸 “Innovation wins—from networking, to security, to AI, Cloudflare is the envy of the industry.”
🔸 “Deal size, length, and caliber of customers show Cloudflare’s growing strategic value.”
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Wall St Engine
$TMDX | TransMedics Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $143.5M (Est. $123.66M) 🟢; +48% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.70 (Est. $0.26) 🟢
🔹 Aircraft Fleet: 21 owned as of March 31, 2025
FY25 Guidance (Raised)
🔹 Revenue: $565M–$585M (Est. $540.5M) 🟢
🔹 Midpoint represents +30% YoY growth
Other Metrics:
🔹 Net Income: $25.7M (18% of revenue);
🔹 Gross Margin: 61% (vs. 62% YoY; 59% QoQ)
🔹 Operating Expenses: $60.8M (vs. $47.5M YoY)
🔹 Stock-based Compensation Expense: $8.7M (vs. $6.5M YoY)
🔹 Cash Balance: $310.1M
Strategic & Clinical Highlights
🔸 Strength driven by expanded OCS use (especially Liver & Heart) under National OCS Program (NOP)
🔸 Announced design center and disposables manufacturing facility in Mirandola, Italy
🔸 Hosted 10 scientific abstracts at ISHLT showcasing OCS/NOP clinical value
🔸 Logistics services contributed to revenue upside
CEO Dr. Waleed Hassanein Commentary
🔸 “Q1 performance underscores our strong execution and the unique attributes of our business.”
🔸 “With the strength of OCS NOP, we’re confident in our ability to sustain this momentum through 2025 and beyond.”
🔸 “We remain focused on enabling broader organ utilization and cost-efficient transplant outcomes.”
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$TMDX | TransMedics Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $143.5M (Est. $123.66M) 🟢; +48% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.70 (Est. $0.26) 🟢
🔹 Aircraft Fleet: 21 owned as of March 31, 2025
FY25 Guidance (Raised)
🔹 Revenue: $565M–$585M (Est. $540.5M) 🟢
🔹 Midpoint represents +30% YoY growth
Other Metrics:
🔹 Net Income: $25.7M (18% of revenue);
🔹 Gross Margin: 61% (vs. 62% YoY; 59% QoQ)
🔹 Operating Expenses: $60.8M (vs. $47.5M YoY)
🔹 Stock-based Compensation Expense: $8.7M (vs. $6.5M YoY)
🔹 Cash Balance: $310.1M
Strategic & Clinical Highlights
🔸 Strength driven by expanded OCS use (especially Liver & Heart) under National OCS Program (NOP)
🔸 Announced design center and disposables manufacturing facility in Mirandola, Italy
🔸 Hosted 10 scientific abstracts at ISHLT showcasing OCS/NOP clinical value
🔸 Logistics services contributed to revenue upside
CEO Dr. Waleed Hassanein Commentary
🔸 “Q1 performance underscores our strong execution and the unique attributes of our business.”
🔸 “With the strength of OCS NOP, we’re confident in our ability to sustain this momentum through 2025 and beyond.”
🔸 “We remain focused on enabling broader organ utilization and cost-efficient transplant outcomes.”
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Wall St Engine
$HUBS | HubSpot Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $714.1M (Est. $699.88M) 🟢; UP +16% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $1.78 (Est. $1.77) 🟢
🔹 Avg. Subscription Revenue per Customer: $11,038; DOWN -4% YoY
Guidance
🔹 Q2 Revenue: $738M–$740M (Est. $725.4M) 🟢
🔹 Q2 EPS: $2.10–$2.12 (Est. $2.13) 🔴
🔹 FY25 Revenue: $3.036B–$3.044B (Est. $2.997B) 🟢
🔹 FY25 EPS: $9.29–$9.37 (Est. $9.18) 🟢
Other Key Metrics:
🔹 Subscription Revenue: $698.7M; UP +16% YoY
🔹 Prof. Services & Other Revenue: $15.4M; UP +13% YoY
🔹 Adj. Operating Income: $100.3M
🔹 Adj. Operating Margin: 14.0%
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $122.3M; UP +18% YoY
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $161.6M
🔹 Calculated Billings: $766.8M; UP +20% YoY
🔹 Customer Count: 258,258; UP +19% YoY
🔹 Cash + Investments: $2.2B
Strategic & Business Highlights
🔸 Authorized $500M share repurchase program (12-month window)
🔸 AI-first strategy driving engagement — Customer Agent cited as standout success
🔸 Positioning as platform of choice amid tech stack consolidation trends
CEO Yamini Rangan Commentary
🔸 “We had a solid start to 2025, with continued revenue growth and customer expansion.”
🔸 “Our AI-first strategy is working—Customer Agent is delivering strong results.”
🔸 “HubSpot is well-positioned to drive long-term durable growth through innovation and platform consolidation.”
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$HUBS | HubSpot Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $714.1M (Est. $699.88M) 🟢; UP +16% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $1.78 (Est. $1.77) 🟢
🔹 Avg. Subscription Revenue per Customer: $11,038; DOWN -4% YoY
Guidance
🔹 Q2 Revenue: $738M–$740M (Est. $725.4M) 🟢
🔹 Q2 EPS: $2.10–$2.12 (Est. $2.13) 🔴
🔹 FY25 Revenue: $3.036B–$3.044B (Est. $2.997B) 🟢
🔹 FY25 EPS: $9.29–$9.37 (Est. $9.18) 🟢
Other Key Metrics:
🔹 Subscription Revenue: $698.7M; UP +16% YoY
🔹 Prof. Services & Other Revenue: $15.4M; UP +13% YoY
🔹 Adj. Operating Income: $100.3M
🔹 Adj. Operating Margin: 14.0%
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $122.3M; UP +18% YoY
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $161.6M
🔹 Calculated Billings: $766.8M; UP +20% YoY
🔹 Customer Count: 258,258; UP +19% YoY
🔹 Cash + Investments: $2.2B
Strategic & Business Highlights
🔸 Authorized $500M share repurchase program (12-month window)
🔸 AI-first strategy driving engagement — Customer Agent cited as standout success
🔸 Positioning as platform of choice amid tech stack consolidation trends
CEO Yamini Rangan Commentary
🔸 “We had a solid start to 2025, with continued revenue growth and customer expansion.”
🔸 “Our AI-first strategy is working—Customer Agent is delivering strong results.”
🔸 “HubSpot is well-positioned to drive long-term durable growth through innovation and platform consolidation.”
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Wall St Engine
President Trump is calling for a 30-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, warning that either side could face sanctions if they break the truce. https://t.co/79UqwIqGlT
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President Trump is calling for a 30-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, warning that either side could face sanctions if they break the truce. https://t.co/79UqwIqGlT
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Wall St Engine
Adobe $ADBE will offer U.S. government agencies a 70% discount on software packages—including Acrobat—through November, following a DOGE-led review of tech spending. https://t.co/NZPrzD8rjL
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Adobe $ADBE will offer U.S. government agencies a 70% discount on software packages—including Acrobat—through November, following a DOGE-led review of tech spending. https://t.co/NZPrzD8rjL
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Capital Employed
Another fresh batch of Q1 2025 fund letters just added.
89 added now in total.
The majority of funds are in negative territory this year to date.
https://t.co/lJZP1lUdTx https://t.co/NNg5Ufn6TA
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Another fresh batch of Q1 2025 fund letters just added.
89 added now in total.
The majority of funds are in negative territory this year to date.
https://t.co/lJZP1lUdTx https://t.co/NNg5Ufn6TA
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Hidden Value Gems
Cannot remember a company where SOTP valuation was lower than the share price.
“Listed companies Shell, Chevron, ExxonMobil and TotalEnergies, as well as Abu Dhabi’s Adnoc, have separately run the numbers, according to industry sources and advisers, while oil trader Vitol could be interested in elements of the business.”
“A sum of the parts valuation suggests BP’s assets are worth in excess of £120bn, without including debt and liabilities, more than twice its current market capitalisation of £57bn, which follows a sharp slump in its shares over the past 12 months.”
$BP
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Cannot remember a company where SOTP valuation was lower than the share price.
“Listed companies Shell, Chevron, ExxonMobil and TotalEnergies, as well as Abu Dhabi’s Adnoc, have separately run the numbers, according to industry sources and advisers, while oil trader Vitol could be interested in elements of the business.”
“A sum of the parts valuation suggests BP’s assets are worth in excess of £120bn, without including debt and liabilities, more than twice its current market capitalisation of £57bn, which follows a sharp slump in its shares over the past 12 months.”
$BP
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