⁠Wall St Engine
Trump: "Too Late” Jerome Powell is a FOOL, who doesn’t have a clue. Other than that, I like him very much! https://t.co/rcnk8FQvwi
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⁠Wall St Engine
$UPS is sticking to its plan to cut over half its Amazon delivery business by mid-2026, even as tariff uncertainty grows. CFO says the move gives UPS more control over margins by focusing on more profitable shipments. The pivot also includes $3.5B in cost cuts and a push into healthcare logistics.
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⁠Wall St Engine
Eli Lilly $LLY announces key leadership shifts to support its next phase of growth. Ilya Yuffa will now lead the US business, while Patrik Jonsson takes over Lilly International. Kenneth Custer is promoted to EVP of Cardiometabolic Health, joining the executive committee.
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⁠Wall St Engine
BOE CUTS KEY RATE BY 25BPS TO 4.25%, AS EXPECTED
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⁠Wall St Engine
$SHOP | Shopify Q1'25 Earnings Highlights

🔹 Revenue: $2.36B (Est. $2.33B) 🟢; +27% YoY
🔹 Oper. Income: $203M (Est. $208M) 🔴; +136% YoY
🔹 GMV: $74.75B (Est. $74.8B) 🟡; +23% YoY
🔹 MRR: $182M; +20.5% YoY

Q2'25 Guide:
🔹 Revenue: Expected to grow at a mid-20s % rate YoY vs 23% est 😐
🔹 Gross Profit Dollars: Expected to grow at high-teens % rate YoY
🔹 Operating Expense as % of Revenue: 39%–40%
🔹 Free Cash Flow Margin: Mid-teens (in line with Q1)
🔹 Stock-based Compensation: ~$120M

Segment Revenue:
🔹 Subscription Solutions: $620M (UP +21% YoY)
🔹 Merchant Solutions: $1.74B (UP +29% YoY)

Other Key Metrics:
🔹 Gross Profit: $1.17B; UP +22% YoY
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $363M; UP +56% YoY
🔹 Free Cash Flow Margin: 15% (vs. 12% YoY)
🔹 Net Income Excl. Equity Investments: $226M; UP +57% YoY

Operational Highlights:
🔸 Achieved 7 consecutive quarters of GMV growth above 20%
🔸 Free cash flow margin remained in double-digits for the 7th straight quarter
🔸 8 consecutive quarters of pro forma revenue growth >25%

CEO Harley Finkelstein Commentary:
🔸 "Our Q1 results confirm that we are delivering both growth and profitability at scale. Businesses perform better on Shopify, regardless of market conditions."

CFO Jeff Hoffmeister Commentary:
🔸 "Another very strong quarter for Shopify with 27% revenue growth and continued margin strength. Highlights our operational discipline and merchant-first strategy."
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⁠Wall St Engine
$WBD | Warner Bros. Discovery Q1'25 Earnings Highlights

🔹 Adj EPS: -$0.18 (Est. -$0.13) 🔴
🔹 Revenue: $8.98B (Est. $9.59B) 🔴
🔹 Total Subscribers: 122.3M (Est. 119.8M) 🟢; +5.3M QoQ

Streaming Segment
🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: $339M
🔹 Goal: ≥ $1.3B Streaming EBITDA in FY25
🔹 Subscriber Growth: +5.3M in Q1; +22.6M YoY
🔹 International Expansion: Max now in 85+ markets

Key Shows Driving Viewership:
🔹 White Lotus S3: 25M avg viewers/ep
🔹 The Pitt: 12M avg viewers; Season 2 greenlit
🔹 Local Hits:
🔹 Mexico's Like Water for Chocolate
🔹 Brazil's Scars of Beauty
🔹 The Eastern Gate (Poland), When No One Sees Us (Spain)

🔸 “Streaming growth driven by premium content, global rollouts, bundling, and improved user features.”

Studios Segment
🔹 Profitability: YoY improvement in Adj EBITDA
🔹 Minecraft Movie: ~$900M global box office
🔹 Sinners: ~$250M box office, 97% critic/audience rating
🔹 Superman releasing July 11
🔹 TV Pipeline: Running Point, Ted Lasso S4, Peacemaker S2, Harry Potter series (2027)

🔸 “Studios gaining traction across film, TV, and licensing with strong IP monetization.”

Global Linear Networks
🔹 Domestic Ad Revenue: +5% YoY
🔹 Affiliate Rate Growth: +2%
🔹 Pay TV Subs: -9%
🔹 EMEA: ~20% of global ad revenue
🔹 Sports Lineup: March Madness boost in Q1; French Open & NASCAR coming Q2

🔸 “Balancing decline in linear with strong international performance and bundled offerings.”

Financials & Capital
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $302M
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $553M
🔹 Gross Debt: $38.0B
🔹 Cash Balance: $4.0B
🔹 Net Leverage: 3.8x

🔸 “Focused on deleveraging and capturing interest savings via proactive debt restructuring.”
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⁠Wall St Engine
ConocoPhillips $COP beats Q1 profit estimates with $2.09 EPS vs. $2.06 expected, as production jumps to 2.38M boepd. The company also announced longtime CFO Bill Bullock will retire after 39 years.
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⁠Wall St Engine
Kenvue $KVUE tops Q1 estimates with EPS of $0.24 vs. $0.23 expected on $3.74B revenue. Guides FY25 sales growth of 1–3% despite FX and tariff headwinds. Margin expected to dip as tariffs weigh, but management stays focused on sustainable growth.
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⁠Wall St Engine
$CROX | Crocs Q1'25 Earnings Highlights

🔹 Adj EPS: $3.00 (Est. $2.49) 🟢
🔹 Revenue: $937M (Est. $907.9M) 🟢; +1.4% YoY (cc)
🔹 Inventories: $391M (Flat YoY)

FY25 Guidance Withdrawn
🔹 Prior guide was EPS $12.70–13.15; Revenue growth +2–2.5%
🔹 Withdrawal due to macro/trade-policy uncertainty

Brand & Segment Highlights
Crocs Brand
🔹 Revenue: $762M; +2.4% YoY (+4.2% cc)
🔹 DTC Revenue: $285M; +1.1% YoY (+2.5% cc)
🔹 Wholesale Revenue: $477M; +3.2% YoY (+5.3% cc)
🔹 North America: $369M; -3.8% YoY (-3.4% cc)
🔹 International: $393M; +8.9% YoY (+12.3% cc)

HEYDUDE Brand
🔹 Revenue: $176M; -9.8% YoY (-9.5% cc)
🔹 DTC Revenue: $65M; +8.3% YoY
🔹 Wholesale Revenue: $111M; -17.9% YoY

Other Key Metrics:
🔹 Gross Margin: 57.8% (vs. 56.0% YoY)
🔹 Adj Oper Margin: 23.8% (vs. 27.1% YoY)
🔹 Cash: $166M (vs. $159M YoY)
🔹 Debt: $1.48B (vs. $1.73B YoY)
🔹 CapEx: $15M (vs. $16M YoY)
🔹 Share Buybacks: $61M (0.6M shares @ avg $100.23)
🔹 $1.3B in remaining repurchase authorization

CEO Andrew Rees Commentary
🔸 “Proud of our Q1 outperformance despite volatility—both Crocs and HEYDUDE contributed to upside.”
🔸 “The current environment presents an opportunity to gain share as we focus on execution and lean into our competitive advantages.”
🔸 “We’re remaining disciplined and transparent while navigating a rapidly shifting trade landscape.”
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⁠Wall St Engine
CHINA'S XI:

MANY NEW, IMPORTANT CONSENSUSES WERE REACHED

CHINA, RUSSIA SHOULD MAKE NEW AND GREATER CONTRIBUTIONS TO SAFEGUARDING INTERNATIONAL FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE
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⁠Wall St Engine
$PTON | Peloton Q3'25 Earnings Highlights

🔹 Adj EPS: -$0.12 (Est. -$0.07) 🔴
🔹 Revenue: $624M (Est. $623.0M) 🟢; DOWN -13% YoY
🔹 Adj EBITDA: $89.4M (Est. $85M) 🟢; UP +1,434% YoY

Full-Year FY25 Guidance (Updated)
🔹 Revenue: $2.455B–$2.47B (Est. $2.46B) 🟡
🔹 Adj EBITDA: $330M–$350M (Prior: $300M–$350M) 🟢
🔹 Connected Fitness Subscriptions: 2.77M–2.79M (Prior: 2.75M)
🔹 App Subscriptions: 0.54M–0.55M (DOWN -12% YoY)
🔹 Total Gross Margin: 50.0% (vs. 44.7% FY24); +530 bps YoY
🔹 Free Cash Flow: ~$250M (Including ~$5M headwind from tariffs)

Segment Performance
Subscription
🔹 Revenue: $418.5M; DOWN -4% YoY
🔹 Gross Margin: 69.0% (vs. 68.1% YoY)
🔹 Contribution Margin: 72.9% (vs. 72.3% YoY)
🔹 Ending Paid Connected Fitness Subscriptions: 2.88M; DOWN -6% YoY
🔹 Avg Monthly Churn: 1.2% (Flat YoY)

Connected Fitness Products
🔹 Revenue: $205.5M; DOWN -27% YoY
🔹 Gross Margin: 14.3% (vs. 4.2% YoY)

Other Key Metrics:
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $94.7M
🔹 Operating Expenses: $350.5M; DOWN -23% YoY
🔹 Net Loss: -$47.7M; Improvement from -$167.3M YoY

Strategic Updates
🔸 Subscription growth is the core strategy, offsetting hardware softness
🔸 New CEO Peter Stern (ex-Apple & Ford) is executing a pivot to software and recurring revenue
🔸 Marketing cut -46% YoY, yet hardware sales decline was less severe at -27%
🔸 300 bps YoY increase in men joining Peloton
🔸 70,000 members used newly launched kettlebell training
🔸 Nearly 500,000 users started AI-powered Personalized Plans
🔸 Expanded reach via Hilton hotels, Amazon, and a UT Austin campus studio
🔸 International expansion supported by AI-driven subtitles and localized campaigns

CEO Peter Stern Commentary
🔸 “We delivered at the high end or above on all key Q3 metrics. Our shift toward subscriptions is working, and our cost structure is leaner.”
🔸 “Tariff risk is real, but manageable. We’re well-positioned to lead in fitness and wellness.”
🔸 “Excited about FY26 plans. Strategy is centered on improving outcomes, growing lifetime value, and operating with excellence.”
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⁠Wall St Engine
CHINA'S XI:

CHINA, RUSSIA SHOULD BE TRUE FRIENDS OF 'STEEL'

CHINA, RUSSIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN PRACTICAL COOPERATION IN VARIOUS FIELDS, LAY A SOLID FOUNDATION FOR COMPREHENSIVE STRATEGIC COOPERATION

WE SHOULD WORK TOGETHER IN HARMONY AND BE LEADERS IN GLOBAL GOVERNANCE

CHINA, RUSSIA SHOULD PUSH BILATERAL RELATIONS TO BE MORE MATURE AND RESILIENT
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⁠Wall St Engine
$CARS.com suspends FY25 revenue guidance citing macro and tariff uncertainty, but keeps growth plans in place. Reaffirms FY25 adj. EBITDA margin outlook at 29–31%, and sees Q2 margins at 27–29%. Company says partners remain committed despite shifting spend.
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⁠Wall St Engine
CHINA'S XI: CHINA, RUSSIA TO EXPAND COOPERATION ON TRADE, ENERGY, AGR
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⁠Wall St Engine
Here’s what analysts are saying after the $GOOGL selloff tied to Eddy Cue’s AI search comments:

Wells Fargo (Equal Weight, PT $175): "The time to debate changes in search behavior has come to a close... Expect Google to more aggressively exploit its distribution advantage, pushing AI Search in the main search bar. Expect disruption to follow, but better sooner than later."

Bank of America (Buy, PT $200): "Apple commentary reflects changing search landscape; queries are still growing." Cue noted “increasing usage of new Gen-AI platforms,” and that “AI search providers could eventually replace traditional engines like Google.”

Citi (Buy, PT $200): "Competition in the Search landscape is at its highest level in potentially…ever." But: "We are focused on GOOGL’s newer products gaining GenAI share—Gemini, AI Overviews & AI Mode." Also highlights “AI Max”, enabling “2X higher conversion rate at 31% lower cost” for clients like L'Oréal.

Morgan Stanley (Overweight, PT $185): "Sentiment has (again) troughed. Shares now trade at 15x FY26 $10 EPS estimate—a trough multiple and tactically a strong buying opportunity."
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⁠Investing visuals
$SHOP Q1 Earnings 🚨

• Revenue $2.36B vs Est. $2.33B
• EPS $0.25 vs Est. $0.26
• GMV $74.8B vs Est. $74.8B

Shares are down -9% pre-market https://t.co/rDIluj049D
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