Wall St Engine
BARCLAYS ON $RUN (EW; PT $15): 'MORE POSITIVES THAN NEGATIVES
Analyst comments: "Bit of a noisy quarter with change in disclosures, but we view the quarter and update as positive: Despite some impact from tariffs that will hit later in the year, the company was able to maintain the $200-$500mm off cash generation guide, which we expected (see preview) although some of the assumptions underpinning the guide changed. The company now expects stronger demand with growth anticipated in the mid-single digits (vs. prior flat expectation), as some of the weakness seen in the affiliate channel is reversing, offsetting the tariff headwinds, which are slated to increase creation costs by 3-8% (or $1-$3K per customer) this year. Cash generation for the quarter came in at $56mm, above our $12mm estimate, and was used to pay down $27mm of parent debt. The company reported $1.2 bn of aggregate subscriber value (in line with our $1.2 bn sub value), $164mm of contracted net value creation (better than our $125mm) and $2.6 bn contracted net earning assets (in-line with our $2.6 bn). New metrics are more conservative, transparent and better reconcile with GAAP statements: Starting this quarter, the company has started to calculate their metrics a bit differently. From a unit economic perspective, there were 2 things to note: 1) discount rate is floating to more appropriately align with the project-level capital costs each period vs. the fixed 6% it used before and 2) creation costs are more fully burdened with corporate spending that wasn't previously included and can be calculated from line items in the income statement and cash flow statement (vs. the prior convoluted calculations that mostly didn't tie to the financial statements). The company now also provides the upfront net value creation by subtracting this creation cost number from the upfront proceeds it expects to receive from tax equity, non recourse debt and prepayments/upfront incentive for just the contracted portion (no renewal value or any other non-contracted upside). This gives us a rough proxy on how much cash the company should generate from installing these projects during the quarter and while there are some nuances due to timing and working capital, it should better correlate with actual cash generation over time."
Analyst: Christine Cho
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BARCLAYS ON $RUN (EW; PT $15): 'MORE POSITIVES THAN NEGATIVES
Analyst comments: "Bit of a noisy quarter with change in disclosures, but we view the quarter and update as positive: Despite some impact from tariffs that will hit later in the year, the company was able to maintain the $200-$500mm off cash generation guide, which we expected (see preview) although some of the assumptions underpinning the guide changed. The company now expects stronger demand with growth anticipated in the mid-single digits (vs. prior flat expectation), as some of the weakness seen in the affiliate channel is reversing, offsetting the tariff headwinds, which are slated to increase creation costs by 3-8% (or $1-$3K per customer) this year. Cash generation for the quarter came in at $56mm, above our $12mm estimate, and was used to pay down $27mm of parent debt. The company reported $1.2 bn of aggregate subscriber value (in line with our $1.2 bn sub value), $164mm of contracted net value creation (better than our $125mm) and $2.6 bn contracted net earning assets (in-line with our $2.6 bn). New metrics are more conservative, transparent and better reconcile with GAAP statements: Starting this quarter, the company has started to calculate their metrics a bit differently. From a unit economic perspective, there were 2 things to note: 1) discount rate is floating to more appropriately align with the project-level capital costs each period vs. the fixed 6% it used before and 2) creation costs are more fully burdened with corporate spending that wasn't previously included and can be calculated from line items in the income statement and cash flow statement (vs. the prior convoluted calculations that mostly didn't tie to the financial statements). The company now also provides the upfront net value creation by subtracting this creation cost number from the upfront proceeds it expects to receive from tax equity, non recourse debt and prepayments/upfront incentive for just the contracted portion (no renewal value or any other non-contracted upside). This gives us a rough proxy on how much cash the company should generate from installing these projects during the quarter and while there are some nuances due to timing and working capital, it should better correlate with actual cash generation over time."
Analyst: Christine Cho
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Tesla’s $TSLA push to trademark “Robotaxi” has hit a snag, per Tech Crunch. The USPTO just refused the trademark for vehicles, calling it too generic. Tesla has 3 months to respond. Meanwhile, “Cybercab” and ride-hailing-related “Robotaxi” marks are still under review. https://t.co/oL2vGmm5u1
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Tesla’s $TSLA push to trademark “Robotaxi” has hit a snag, per Tech Crunch. The USPTO just refused the trademark for vehicles, calling it too generic. Tesla has 3 months to respond. Meanwhile, “Cybercab” and ride-hailing-related “Robotaxi” marks are still under review. https://t.co/oL2vGmm5u1
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Wall St Engine
Nintendo expects demand for the new Switch 2, launching June 5, to lift profit this year despite a sharp drop in FY24 earnings. The company sees FY25 net income rising 7.6% to ¥300B on 15M Switch 2 unit sales. Tariffs remain a key risk, with execs warning they’ve already cost tens of billions of yen.
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Nintendo expects demand for the new Switch 2, launching June 5, to lift profit this year despite a sharp drop in FY24 earnings. The company sees FY25 net income rising 7.6% to ¥300B on 15M Switch 2 unit sales. Tariffs remain a key risk, with execs warning they’ve already cost tens of billions of yen.
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Trump: "Too Late” Jerome Powell is a FOOL, who doesn’t have a clue. Other than that, I like him very much! https://t.co/rcnk8FQvwi
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Trump: "Too Late” Jerome Powell is a FOOL, who doesn’t have a clue. Other than that, I like him very much! https://t.co/rcnk8FQvwi
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Wall St Engine
$UPS is sticking to its plan to cut over half its Amazon delivery business by mid-2026, even as tariff uncertainty grows. CFO says the move gives UPS more control over margins by focusing on more profitable shipments. The pivot also includes $3.5B in cost cuts and a push into healthcare logistics.
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$UPS is sticking to its plan to cut over half its Amazon delivery business by mid-2026, even as tariff uncertainty grows. CFO says the move gives UPS more control over margins by focusing on more profitable shipments. The pivot also includes $3.5B in cost cuts and a push into healthcare logistics.
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$SHOP | Shopify Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $2.36B (Est. $2.33B) 🟢; +27% YoY
🔹 Oper. Income: $203M (Est. $208M) 🔴; +136% YoY
🔹 GMV: $74.75B (Est. $74.8B) 🟡; +23% YoY
🔹 MRR: $182M; +20.5% YoY
Q2'25 Guide:
🔹 Revenue: Expected to grow at a mid-20s % rate YoY vs 23% est 😐
🔹 Gross Profit Dollars: Expected to grow at high-teens % rate YoY
🔹 Operating Expense as % of Revenue: 39%–40%
🔹 Free Cash Flow Margin: Mid-teens (in line with Q1)
🔹 Stock-based Compensation: ~$120M
Segment Revenue:
🔹 Subscription Solutions: $620M (UP +21% YoY)
🔹 Merchant Solutions: $1.74B (UP +29% YoY)
Other Key Metrics:
🔹 Gross Profit: $1.17B; UP +22% YoY
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $363M; UP +56% YoY
🔹 Free Cash Flow Margin: 15% (vs. 12% YoY)
🔹 Net Income Excl. Equity Investments: $226M; UP +57% YoY
Operational Highlights:
🔸 Achieved 7 consecutive quarters of GMV growth above 20%
🔸 Free cash flow margin remained in double-digits for the 7th straight quarter
🔸 8 consecutive quarters of pro forma revenue growth >25%
CEO Harley Finkelstein Commentary:
🔸 "Our Q1 results confirm that we are delivering both growth and profitability at scale. Businesses perform better on Shopify, regardless of market conditions."
CFO Jeff Hoffmeister Commentary:
🔸 "Another very strong quarter for Shopify with 27% revenue growth and continued margin strength. Highlights our operational discipline and merchant-first strategy."
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$SHOP | Shopify Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $2.36B (Est. $2.33B) 🟢; +27% YoY
🔹 Oper. Income: $203M (Est. $208M) 🔴; +136% YoY
🔹 GMV: $74.75B (Est. $74.8B) 🟡; +23% YoY
🔹 MRR: $182M; +20.5% YoY
Q2'25 Guide:
🔹 Revenue: Expected to grow at a mid-20s % rate YoY vs 23% est 😐
🔹 Gross Profit Dollars: Expected to grow at high-teens % rate YoY
🔹 Operating Expense as % of Revenue: 39%–40%
🔹 Free Cash Flow Margin: Mid-teens (in line with Q1)
🔹 Stock-based Compensation: ~$120M
Segment Revenue:
🔹 Subscription Solutions: $620M (UP +21% YoY)
🔹 Merchant Solutions: $1.74B (UP +29% YoY)
Other Key Metrics:
🔹 Gross Profit: $1.17B; UP +22% YoY
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $363M; UP +56% YoY
🔹 Free Cash Flow Margin: 15% (vs. 12% YoY)
🔹 Net Income Excl. Equity Investments: $226M; UP +57% YoY
Operational Highlights:
🔸 Achieved 7 consecutive quarters of GMV growth above 20%
🔸 Free cash flow margin remained in double-digits for the 7th straight quarter
🔸 8 consecutive quarters of pro forma revenue growth >25%
CEO Harley Finkelstein Commentary:
🔸 "Our Q1 results confirm that we are delivering both growth and profitability at scale. Businesses perform better on Shopify, regardless of market conditions."
CFO Jeff Hoffmeister Commentary:
🔸 "Another very strong quarter for Shopify with 27% revenue growth and continued margin strength. Highlights our operational discipline and merchant-first strategy."
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Wall St Engine
$WBD | Warner Bros. Discovery Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Adj EPS: -$0.18 (Est. -$0.13) 🔴
🔹 Revenue: $8.98B (Est. $9.59B) 🔴
🔹 Total Subscribers: 122.3M (Est. 119.8M) 🟢; +5.3M QoQ
Streaming Segment
🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: $339M
🔹 Goal: ≥ $1.3B Streaming EBITDA in FY25
🔹 Subscriber Growth: +5.3M in Q1; +22.6M YoY
🔹 International Expansion: Max now in 85+ markets
Key Shows Driving Viewership:
🔹 White Lotus S3: 25M avg viewers/ep
🔹 The Pitt: 12M avg viewers; Season 2 greenlit
🔹 Local Hits:
🔹 Mexico's Like Water for Chocolate
🔹 Brazil's Scars of Beauty
🔹 The Eastern Gate (Poland), When No One Sees Us (Spain)
🔸 “Streaming growth driven by premium content, global rollouts, bundling, and improved user features.”
Studios Segment
🔹 Profitability: YoY improvement in Adj EBITDA
🔹 Minecraft Movie: ~$900M global box office
🔹 Sinners: ~$250M box office, 97% critic/audience rating
🔹 Superman releasing July 11
🔹 TV Pipeline: Running Point, Ted Lasso S4, Peacemaker S2, Harry Potter series (2027)
🔸 “Studios gaining traction across film, TV, and licensing with strong IP monetization.”
Global Linear Networks
🔹 Domestic Ad Revenue: +5% YoY
🔹 Affiliate Rate Growth: +2%
🔹 Pay TV Subs: -9%
🔹 EMEA: ~20% of global ad revenue
🔹 Sports Lineup: March Madness boost in Q1; French Open & NASCAR coming Q2
🔸 “Balancing decline in linear with strong international performance and bundled offerings.”
Financials & Capital
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $302M
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $553M
🔹 Gross Debt: $38.0B
🔹 Cash Balance: $4.0B
🔹 Net Leverage: 3.8x
🔸 “Focused on deleveraging and capturing interest savings via proactive debt restructuring.”
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$WBD | Warner Bros. Discovery Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Adj EPS: -$0.18 (Est. -$0.13) 🔴
🔹 Revenue: $8.98B (Est. $9.59B) 🔴
🔹 Total Subscribers: 122.3M (Est. 119.8M) 🟢; +5.3M QoQ
Streaming Segment
🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: $339M
🔹 Goal: ≥ $1.3B Streaming EBITDA in FY25
🔹 Subscriber Growth: +5.3M in Q1; +22.6M YoY
🔹 International Expansion: Max now in 85+ markets
Key Shows Driving Viewership:
🔹 White Lotus S3: 25M avg viewers/ep
🔹 The Pitt: 12M avg viewers; Season 2 greenlit
🔹 Local Hits:
🔹 Mexico's Like Water for Chocolate
🔹 Brazil's Scars of Beauty
🔹 The Eastern Gate (Poland), When No One Sees Us (Spain)
🔸 “Streaming growth driven by premium content, global rollouts, bundling, and improved user features.”
Studios Segment
🔹 Profitability: YoY improvement in Adj EBITDA
🔹 Minecraft Movie: ~$900M global box office
🔹 Sinners: ~$250M box office, 97% critic/audience rating
🔹 Superman releasing July 11
🔹 TV Pipeline: Running Point, Ted Lasso S4, Peacemaker S2, Harry Potter series (2027)
🔸 “Studios gaining traction across film, TV, and licensing with strong IP monetization.”
Global Linear Networks
🔹 Domestic Ad Revenue: +5% YoY
🔹 Affiliate Rate Growth: +2%
🔹 Pay TV Subs: -9%
🔹 EMEA: ~20% of global ad revenue
🔹 Sports Lineup: March Madness boost in Q1; French Open & NASCAR coming Q2
🔸 “Balancing decline in linear with strong international performance and bundled offerings.”
Financials & Capital
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $302M
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $553M
🔹 Gross Debt: $38.0B
🔹 Cash Balance: $4.0B
🔹 Net Leverage: 3.8x
🔸 “Focused on deleveraging and capturing interest savings via proactive debt restructuring.”
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$CROX | Crocs Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Adj EPS: $3.00 (Est. $2.49) 🟢
🔹 Revenue: $937M (Est. $907.9M) 🟢; +1.4% YoY (cc)
🔹 Inventories: $391M (Flat YoY)
FY25 Guidance Withdrawn
🔹 Prior guide was EPS $12.70–13.15; Revenue growth +2–2.5%
🔹 Withdrawal due to macro/trade-policy uncertainty
Brand & Segment Highlights
Crocs Brand
🔹 Revenue: $762M; +2.4% YoY (+4.2% cc)
🔹 DTC Revenue: $285M; +1.1% YoY (+2.5% cc)
🔹 Wholesale Revenue: $477M; +3.2% YoY (+5.3% cc)
🔹 North America: $369M; -3.8% YoY (-3.4% cc)
🔹 International: $393M; +8.9% YoY (+12.3% cc)
HEYDUDE Brand
🔹 Revenue: $176M; -9.8% YoY (-9.5% cc)
🔹 DTC Revenue: $65M; +8.3% YoY
🔹 Wholesale Revenue: $111M; -17.9% YoY
Other Key Metrics:
🔹 Gross Margin: 57.8% (vs. 56.0% YoY)
🔹 Adj Oper Margin: 23.8% (vs. 27.1% YoY)
🔹 Cash: $166M (vs. $159M YoY)
🔹 Debt: $1.48B (vs. $1.73B YoY)
🔹 CapEx: $15M (vs. $16M YoY)
🔹 Share Buybacks: $61M (0.6M shares @ avg $100.23)
🔹 $1.3B in remaining repurchase authorization
CEO Andrew Rees Commentary
🔸 “Proud of our Q1 outperformance despite volatility—both Crocs and HEYDUDE contributed to upside.”
🔸 “The current environment presents an opportunity to gain share as we focus on execution and lean into our competitive advantages.”
🔸 “We’re remaining disciplined and transparent while navigating a rapidly shifting trade landscape.”
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$CROX | Crocs Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Adj EPS: $3.00 (Est. $2.49) 🟢
🔹 Revenue: $937M (Est. $907.9M) 🟢; +1.4% YoY (cc)
🔹 Inventories: $391M (Flat YoY)
FY25 Guidance Withdrawn
🔹 Prior guide was EPS $12.70–13.15; Revenue growth +2–2.5%
🔹 Withdrawal due to macro/trade-policy uncertainty
Brand & Segment Highlights
Crocs Brand
🔹 Revenue: $762M; +2.4% YoY (+4.2% cc)
🔹 DTC Revenue: $285M; +1.1% YoY (+2.5% cc)
🔹 Wholesale Revenue: $477M; +3.2% YoY (+5.3% cc)
🔹 North America: $369M; -3.8% YoY (-3.4% cc)
🔹 International: $393M; +8.9% YoY (+12.3% cc)
HEYDUDE Brand
🔹 Revenue: $176M; -9.8% YoY (-9.5% cc)
🔹 DTC Revenue: $65M; +8.3% YoY
🔹 Wholesale Revenue: $111M; -17.9% YoY
Other Key Metrics:
🔹 Gross Margin: 57.8% (vs. 56.0% YoY)
🔹 Adj Oper Margin: 23.8% (vs. 27.1% YoY)
🔹 Cash: $166M (vs. $159M YoY)
🔹 Debt: $1.48B (vs. $1.73B YoY)
🔹 CapEx: $15M (vs. $16M YoY)
🔹 Share Buybacks: $61M (0.6M shares @ avg $100.23)
🔹 $1.3B in remaining repurchase authorization
CEO Andrew Rees Commentary
🔸 “Proud of our Q1 outperformance despite volatility—both Crocs and HEYDUDE contributed to upside.”
🔸 “The current environment presents an opportunity to gain share as we focus on execution and lean into our competitive advantages.”
🔸 “We’re remaining disciplined and transparent while navigating a rapidly shifting trade landscape.”
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$PTON | Peloton Q3'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Adj EPS: -$0.12 (Est. -$0.07) 🔴
🔹 Revenue: $624M (Est. $623.0M) 🟢; DOWN -13% YoY
🔹 Adj EBITDA: $89.4M (Est. $85M) 🟢; UP +1,434% YoY
Full-Year FY25 Guidance (Updated)
🔹 Revenue: $2.455B–$2.47B (Est. $2.46B) 🟡
🔹 Adj EBITDA: $330M–$350M (Prior: $300M–$350M) 🟢
🔹 Connected Fitness Subscriptions: 2.77M–2.79M (Prior: 2.75M)
🔹 App Subscriptions: 0.54M–0.55M (DOWN -12% YoY)
🔹 Total Gross Margin: 50.0% (vs. 44.7% FY24); +530 bps YoY
🔹 Free Cash Flow: ~$250M (Including ~$5M headwind from tariffs)
Segment Performance
Subscription
🔹 Revenue: $418.5M; DOWN -4% YoY
🔹 Gross Margin: 69.0% (vs. 68.1% YoY)
🔹 Contribution Margin: 72.9% (vs. 72.3% YoY)
🔹 Ending Paid Connected Fitness Subscriptions: 2.88M; DOWN -6% YoY
🔹 Avg Monthly Churn: 1.2% (Flat YoY)
Connected Fitness Products
🔹 Revenue: $205.5M; DOWN -27% YoY
🔹 Gross Margin: 14.3% (vs. 4.2% YoY)
Other Key Metrics:
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $94.7M
🔹 Operating Expenses: $350.5M; DOWN -23% YoY
🔹 Net Loss: -$47.7M; Improvement from -$167.3M YoY
Strategic Updates
🔸 Subscription growth is the core strategy, offsetting hardware softness
🔸 New CEO Peter Stern (ex-Apple & Ford) is executing a pivot to software and recurring revenue
🔸 Marketing cut -46% YoY, yet hardware sales decline was less severe at -27%
🔸 300 bps YoY increase in men joining Peloton
🔸 70,000 members used newly launched kettlebell training
🔸 Nearly 500,000 users started AI-powered Personalized Plans
🔸 Expanded reach via Hilton hotels, Amazon, and a UT Austin campus studio
🔸 International expansion supported by AI-driven subtitles and localized campaigns
CEO Peter Stern Commentary
🔸 “We delivered at the high end or above on all key Q3 metrics. Our shift toward subscriptions is working, and our cost structure is leaner.”
🔸 “Tariff risk is real, but manageable. We’re well-positioned to lead in fitness and wellness.”
🔸 “Excited about FY26 plans. Strategy is centered on improving outcomes, growing lifetime value, and operating with excellence.”
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$PTON | Peloton Q3'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Adj EPS: -$0.12 (Est. -$0.07) 🔴
🔹 Revenue: $624M (Est. $623.0M) 🟢; DOWN -13% YoY
🔹 Adj EBITDA: $89.4M (Est. $85M) 🟢; UP +1,434% YoY
Full-Year FY25 Guidance (Updated)
🔹 Revenue: $2.455B–$2.47B (Est. $2.46B) 🟡
🔹 Adj EBITDA: $330M–$350M (Prior: $300M–$350M) 🟢
🔹 Connected Fitness Subscriptions: 2.77M–2.79M (Prior: 2.75M)
🔹 App Subscriptions: 0.54M–0.55M (DOWN -12% YoY)
🔹 Total Gross Margin: 50.0% (vs. 44.7% FY24); +530 bps YoY
🔹 Free Cash Flow: ~$250M (Including ~$5M headwind from tariffs)
Segment Performance
Subscription
🔹 Revenue: $418.5M; DOWN -4% YoY
🔹 Gross Margin: 69.0% (vs. 68.1% YoY)
🔹 Contribution Margin: 72.9% (vs. 72.3% YoY)
🔹 Ending Paid Connected Fitness Subscriptions: 2.88M; DOWN -6% YoY
🔹 Avg Monthly Churn: 1.2% (Flat YoY)
Connected Fitness Products
🔹 Revenue: $205.5M; DOWN -27% YoY
🔹 Gross Margin: 14.3% (vs. 4.2% YoY)
Other Key Metrics:
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $94.7M
🔹 Operating Expenses: $350.5M; DOWN -23% YoY
🔹 Net Loss: -$47.7M; Improvement from -$167.3M YoY
Strategic Updates
🔸 Subscription growth is the core strategy, offsetting hardware softness
🔸 New CEO Peter Stern (ex-Apple & Ford) is executing a pivot to software and recurring revenue
🔸 Marketing cut -46% YoY, yet hardware sales decline was less severe at -27%
🔸 300 bps YoY increase in men joining Peloton
🔸 70,000 members used newly launched kettlebell training
🔸 Nearly 500,000 users started AI-powered Personalized Plans
🔸 Expanded reach via Hilton hotels, Amazon, and a UT Austin campus studio
🔸 International expansion supported by AI-driven subtitles and localized campaigns
CEO Peter Stern Commentary
🔸 “We delivered at the high end or above on all key Q3 metrics. Our shift toward subscriptions is working, and our cost structure is leaner.”
🔸 “Tariff risk is real, but manageable. We’re well-positioned to lead in fitness and wellness.”
🔸 “Excited about FY26 plans. Strategy is centered on improving outcomes, growing lifetime value, and operating with excellence.”
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