⁠Wall St Engine
Powell says he can’t weigh in directly on the upcoming US-China trade talks in Switzerland but notes we're entering a new phase as the administration kicks off negotiations. Says trade outcomes could “materially change the picture—or not,” but that’s for the administration to do.
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⁠Wall St Engine
FED'S POWELL: BIG SPIKE IN IMPORTS TO BEAT TARIFFS SHOULD REVERSE IN 2Q. LIKELY NET EXPORTS TO HAVE A LARGE POSITIVE CONTRIBUTION TO GDP.
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⁠Wall St Engine
FED'S POWELL: SWINGS IN GDP DATA WON'T REALLY CHANGE THINGS FOR US.
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⁠Wall St Engine
FED POWELL: FOCUS IS ON MAKING BEST DECISIONS FOR AMERICAN PEOPLE
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⁠Wall St Engine
DOUBLELINE'S JEFFREY GUNDLACH:

AS ECONOMY WEAKENS, LONG-TERM RATES COULD GO UP; DON'T TAKE FIRST QUARTER GDP AT FACE VALUE; MIGHT HAVE TO DO YIELD CURVE CONTROL
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⁠Wall St Engine
As the Fed stuck with the “wait and see” stance throughout the conf, Polymarket odds currently show just a 15% chance of no rate cuts in 2025.

Both CME FedWatch and Polymarket are still leaning toward 3 cuts by year-end. https://t.co/J7QUFnS15a
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⁠Wall St Engine
The U.S. is weighing tariff exemptions on strollers and car seats as prices climb for American families. About 97% of strollers and 87% of car seats used in the U.S. are imported from China. Brands like Graco have already hiked prices by 20% amid rising costs.
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⁠Wall St Engine
Gilead Sciences $GILD plans to invest $11B in U.S. R&D and manufacturing, part of a broader $43B economic impact over five years. The move includes new facilities, tech upgrades, & will create around 800 direct & 2,200 indirect jobs by 2028. GILD has already invested $15B in the past decade.
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⁠Wall St Engine
TRUMP TO RESCIND GLOBAL CHIP CURBS AMID AI RESTRICTIONS DEBATE
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⁠Wall St Engine
BREAKING: Trump plans to rescind global chip export restrictions, including Biden-era AI diffusion rule. Officials are preparing the repeal as $NVDA reportedly pushed back hard against the rule and lobbied for its reversal.
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⁠Wall St Engine
S&P 500 Closing Bell Heatmap (May 07, 2025)

$SPY +0.44% 🟩
$QQQ +0.39% 🟩
$DJI +0.70% 🟩
$IWM +0.32% 🟩

S&P 500 Opening Bell Heatmap (May 07, 2025)

$SPY +0.21% 🟩
$QQQ flat ⬜
$DJI +0.39% 🟩
$IWM +0.47% 🟩 - Wall St Engine
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⁠Investing visuals
$AXON Q1 Earnings 🚨

• Revenue $603M vs $586M Est.
• EPS $1.41 vs. $1.24 Est.
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⁠Wall St Engine
$MELI | MercadoLibre Q1'25 Earnings Highlights

🔹 Revenue: $5.93B (Est. $5.52B) 🟢; UP +37% YoY | +64% FX-neutral
🔹 EPS: $9.74 (Est. $8.27) 🟢
🔹 TPV: $58.3B; UP +43% YoY |
🔹 GMV: $13.3B; UP +17% YoY
🔹 Items Sold: 492M; UP +28% YoY
🔹 Unique Active Buyers: 67M; UP +25% YoY
🔹 Fintech Monthly Active Users: 64M; UP +31% YoY

Segment Highlights
Commerce
🔸 GMV: $13.3B; +17% USD | +40% FXN
🔹 Brazil GMV: +10% USD | +30% FXN
🔹 Mexico GMV: +14% USD | +23% FXN
🔹 Argentina GMV: +77% USD | +126% FXN
🔹 Items Sold: +28% YoY; led by +65% YoY in Supermarket category
🔹 Unique Active Buyers: 67M; +25% YoY
🔸 Fulfillment penetration in Brazil: surpassed 60% in March
🔸 Cost per order declined YoY in Brazil, Mexico, Chile

Advertising
🔹 Revenue Growth: +50% YoY FX-neutral
🔸 Display share of Ads revenue up nearly 10ppts YoY
🔸 Mercado Play app launched on smart TVs—70M+ addressable devices

Fintech / Mercado Pago
🔹 TPV: $58.3B; +43% USD | +72% FXN
🔹 TPV Acquiring: $40.3B; +32% USD | +59% FXN
🔹 Credit Portfolio: $7.8B; +75% YoY
🔸 Brazil contributed +$800M QoQ to credit portfolio
🔹 15–90 Day NPL: 8.2%; stable YoY
🔹 NIMAL Spread: 22.7% (vs. 31.5% YoY); QoQ contraction due to seasonality and credit mix
🔸 Strong ecosystem stickiness from deposits and credit use
🔸 New merchant savings pot in Brazil pays 100% of benchmark rate

Geographic Performance (FX-neutral Revenue Growth YoY)
🔹 Argentina: +184%
🔹 Mexico: +51%
🔹 Brazil: +41%
🔹 Commerce Segment: +57%
🔹 Fintech Segment: +73%
🔹 Total MELI: +64%

Other Metrics
🔹 Income from Operations: $763M; UP +45% YoY
🔹 Operating Margin: 12.9%
🔹 Net Income: $494M; Margin 8.3%
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $7M
🔹 CapEx: $256M
🔹 Depreciation & Amortization: $172M
🔹 Net Payment Transactions: 3.44B; +42% YoY
🔹 Acquiring TPV Growth:
  🔸 Brazil: ~30% FXN
  🔸 Mexico: ~50% FXN
  🔸 Argentina: +144% FXN | +93% USD

Management Commentary
🔸 “Argentina’s rebound drove record growth, balancing strategic investments in Brazil and Mexico.”
🔸 “We are scaling Supermarket and Payments, improving UX, and reinforcing ecosystem flywheels.”
🔸 “The launch of Mercado Play and expansion of Display Ads strengthen our long-term ad monetization roadmap.”
🔸 “Credit growth remains robust and disciplined, with a stable risk profile and improving first-payment default rates in Brazil.”
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⁠Investing visuals
$MELI Crushed Q1 Earnings 🚨

• Revenue $5.93B vs $5.52B Est.
• EPS $9.74 vs. $8.27 Est.
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