� 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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⁠Wall St Engine
FED’S POWELL:

ECONOMY IS IN A SOLID POSITION; LABOR-MARKET CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED SOLID

SURVEYS SUGGEST TARIFFS DRIVING INFLATION EXPECTATIONS

LONGER-TERM INFLATION EXPECTATIONS CONSISTENT WITH GOAL

CURRENT POLICY STANCE LEAVES FED ‘WELL-POSITIONED’ TO RESPOND IN TIMELY MANNER

UNUSUAL SWING IN TRADE COMPLICATED GDP MEASUREMENT
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FED POWELL: TARIFFS ANNOUNCED SO FAR HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY LARGER THAN ANTICIPATED
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FED POWELL: WAITING FOR GREATER CLARITY BEFORE ADJUSTING POLICY
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FED POWELL: IF LARGE INCREASES IN TARIFFS AS ANNOUNCED ARE SUSTAINED, WILL SEE HIGHER INFLATION, LOWER EMPLOYMENT
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POWELL REITERATES: IN A GOOD PLACE TO WAIT AND SEE; DON'T THINK WE NEED TO BE IN A HURRY, CAN BE PATIENT
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FED POWELL: WHEN THINGS DEVELOP, WE CAN MOVE QUICKLY WHEN APPROPRIATE, CAN'T GIVE A TIMEFRAME ON THAT
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FED POWELL:

WON'T MAKE PROGRESS ON GOALS THIS YEAR IF TARIFFS STAY

THIS IS NOT A SITUATION WHERE WE CAN BE PREEMPTIVE

THE 2024 RATE CUTS WEREN'T PREEMPTIVE. "IF ANYTHING, IT WAS A LITTLE LATE."
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FED POWELL: TRUMP CALLING FOR RATE CUTS DOESN'T AFFECT OUR JOB AT ALL
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FED POWELL:

I CAN'T CONFIDENTLY SAY I KNOW THE APPROPRIATE RATE PATH; MY GUT TELLS ME THAT UNCERTAINTY IS EXTREMELY ELEVATED

RISKS OF HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT AND HIGHER INFLATION HAVE RISEN, BUT NOT YET IN DATA
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FED POWELL:

QE WASNT BEYOND THE CONFINES OF OUR MANDATE; WE COULD HAVE EXPLAINED IT BETTER

DIDNT WANT SHARP TIGHTENING OF FINANCIAL CONDITIONS WHEN ECONOMY WAS VULNERABLE

ON CLIMATE, OVER AND OVER YOU'VE HEARD ME SAY FED'S ROLE IS VERY VERY NARROW

THAT'S WHAT WE'VE DONE; WE'VE DONE VERY LITTLE ON CLIMATE
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FED POWELL: WE DON'T SEE BIG ECONOMIC EFFECTS IN THE DATA YET; PEOPLE ARE WORRIED, BUT SHOCK HASN'T HIT YET
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POWELL: THE DEBT IS ON AN UNSUSTAINABLE PATH
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Fed's Powell: “I think they don’t need my advice -- and our advice -- on how to do fiscal policy. Any more than we need their advice on monetary policy.”
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Powell says he can’t weigh in directly on the upcoming US-China trade talks in Switzerland but notes we're entering a new phase as the administration kicks off negotiations. Says trade outcomes could “materially change the picture—or not,” but that’s for the administration to do.
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⁠Wall St Engine
FED'S POWELL: BIG SPIKE IN IMPORTS TO BEAT TARIFFS SHOULD REVERSE IN 2Q. LIKELY NET EXPORTS TO HAVE A LARGE POSITIVE CONTRIBUTION TO GDP.
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FED'S POWELL: SWINGS IN GDP DATA WON'T REALLY CHANGE THINGS FOR US.
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FED POWELL: FOCUS IS ON MAKING BEST DECISIONS FOR AMERICAN PEOPLE
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DOUBLELINE'S JEFFREY GUNDLACH:

AS ECONOMY WEAKENS, LONG-TERM RATES COULD GO UP; DON'T TAKE FIRST QUARTER GDP AT FACE VALUE; MIGHT HAVE TO DO YIELD CURVE CONTROL
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