Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: “There are 60,000 economists in the US, many of them employed full-time, trying to forecast recessions and interest rates. If they could do it successfully twice in a row, they’d all be millionaires by now. As far as I know, most of them are still gainfully employed, which ought to tell us something”
— Peter Lynch 🗣️
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RT @DimitryNakhla: “There are 60,000 economists in the US, many of them employed full-time, trying to forecast recessions and interest rates. If they could do it successfully twice in a row, they’d all be millionaires by now. As far as I know, most of them are still gainfully employed, which ought to tell us something”
— Peter Lynch 🗣️
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Wall St Engine
CHINA VICE PREMIER HE LIFENG TO MEET WITH BESSENT: CHINA MOFA
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CHINA VICE PREMIER HE LIFENG TO MEET WITH BESSENT: CHINA MOFA
BESSENT, GREER TO MEET WITH CHINA 🇨🇳 TO LAUNCH TRADE TALKS tweet
twitter.com
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The All-In Podcast
NEW INTERVIEW: secretary of the interior doug burgum sits down with friedberg!🛢️🔋⚡️
this interview was recorded at sabine pass in louisiana
@SecretaryBurgum joined @friedberg to discuss:
-- how his background in tech and as governor of north dakota led to his role in the administration
-- america's energy emergency: ai, competing with china, the energy addition roadmap
-- making america more risk-on
-- creating a national balance sheet
++ much more
(0:00) friedberg introduces secretary burgum
(2:11) burgum's background and how it led him to his role in the administration
(10:56) understanding the state of american energy production and how we got here
(22:32) america's energy emergency, unlocking potential, keeping up with china, increasing national risk tolerance
(34:22) burgum's national balance sheet idea: how it could help reduce national debt
(42:25) mining, overseeing the epa, aligning agencies with outcomes
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NEW INTERVIEW: secretary of the interior doug burgum sits down with friedberg!🛢️🔋⚡️
this interview was recorded at sabine pass in louisiana
@SecretaryBurgum joined @friedberg to discuss:
-- how his background in tech and as governor of north dakota led to his role in the administration
-- america's energy emergency: ai, competing with china, the energy addition roadmap
-- making america more risk-on
-- creating a national balance sheet
++ much more
(0:00) friedberg introduces secretary burgum
(2:11) burgum's background and how it led him to his role in the administration
(10:56) understanding the state of american energy production and how we got here
(22:32) america's energy emergency, unlocking potential, keeping up with china, increasing national risk tolerance
(34:22) burgum's national balance sheet idea: how it could help reduce national debt
(42:25) mining, overseeing the epa, aligning agencies with outcomes
tweet
twitter.com
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Offshore
Photo
App Economy Insights
Visuals of the week (so far):
🪙 $BRK Buffett steps down
🕵️ $PLTR Palantir's acceleration
↗️ $AMD AMD's surprise guidance
🏎️ $RACE Ferrari's pricing power.
💊 $HIMS Hims & Hers' pivot
⚡️ $CELH Celsius + Alani and more!
https://t.co/QUA3PQhE2J
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Visuals of the week (so far):
🪙 $BRK Buffett steps down
🕵️ $PLTR Palantir's acceleration
↗️ $AMD AMD's surprise guidance
🏎️ $RACE Ferrari's pricing power.
💊 $HIMS Hims & Hers' pivot
⚡️ $CELH Celsius + Alani and more!
https://t.co/QUA3PQhE2J
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Wall St Engine
$EA delivered a strong Q4, reporting a $254M profit—up 40% from last year—driven by “College Football 25” and over $1B in bookings from its American Football segment.
Full-year net bookings hit $7.36B, with live services making up 73%. Looking ahead, EA forecasts FY26 bookings of $7.6B to $8B, helped by continued strength in its sports titles, double-digit monetization growth in “FC,” and the upcoming “Battlefield” release. The delay of GTA 6 to FY27 removes a major competitive headwind, giving EA more room to capture market share. Shares jumped 6% after hours.
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$EA delivered a strong Q4, reporting a $254M profit—up 40% from last year—driven by “College Football 25” and over $1B in bookings from its American Football segment.
Full-year net bookings hit $7.36B, with live services making up 73%. Looking ahead, EA forecasts FY26 bookings of $7.6B to $8B, helped by continued strength in its sports titles, double-digit monetization growth in “FC,” and the upcoming “Battlefield” release. The delay of GTA 6 to FY27 removes a major competitive headwind, giving EA more room to capture market share. Shares jumped 6% after hours.
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Wall St Engine
Today's Key Events (All EST) — 05/07/2025
07:00: US MBA Mortgage Applications
10:00: US Treasury Sec. Bessent
12:00: Bessent Meets With GOP on Tax
14:00: FOMC Rate Decision
14:30: FOMC Press Conference w/ Chair Powell
15:00: US Consumer Credit
Before Open 👇
01:00: Fiverr International $FVRR
01:30: Novo Nordisk $NVO
06:00: Barrick Gold $GOLD
06:00: Oscar Health $OSCR
06:40: Walt Disney $DIS
06:55: Uber Technologies $UBER
06:55: Emerson Electric $EMR
07:00: Vistra Energy $VST
08:00: Unity $U
After Hours 👇
16:01: MercadoLibre $MELI
16:01: Axon Enterprise $AXON
16:01: Symbotic $SYM
16:02: Arm Holdings $ARM
16:05: AppLovin $APP
16:05: IonQ $IONQ
16:05: Fortinet $FTNT
16:05: Dutch Bros $BROS
16:05: Paycom Software $PAYC
16:10: Carvana $CVNA
16:15: Q2 Holdings $QTWO
16:15: Occidental $OXY
16:15: Honest Company $HNST
16:15: AMC Entertainment $AMC
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Today's Key Events (All EST) — 05/07/2025
07:00: US MBA Mortgage Applications
10:00: US Treasury Sec. Bessent
12:00: Bessent Meets With GOP on Tax
14:00: FOMC Rate Decision
14:30: FOMC Press Conference w/ Chair Powell
15:00: US Consumer Credit
Before Open 👇
01:00: Fiverr International $FVRR
01:30: Novo Nordisk $NVO
06:00: Barrick Gold $GOLD
06:00: Oscar Health $OSCR
06:40: Walt Disney $DIS
06:55: Uber Technologies $UBER
06:55: Emerson Electric $EMR
07:00: Vistra Energy $VST
08:00: Unity $U
After Hours 👇
16:01: MercadoLibre $MELI
16:01: Axon Enterprise $AXON
16:01: Symbotic $SYM
16:02: Arm Holdings $ARM
16:05: AppLovin $APP
16:05: IonQ $IONQ
16:05: Fortinet $FTNT
16:05: Dutch Bros $BROS
16:05: Paycom Software $PAYC
16:10: Carvana $CVNA
16:15: Q2 Holdings $QTWO
16:15: Occidental $OXY
16:15: Honest Company $HNST
16:15: AMC Entertainment $AMC
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Wall St Engine
$NVO | Novo Nordisk Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: DKK 78.1B (Est: DKK78.7B) 😐; +19% YoY
🔹 Net Profit: DKK 29.0B (Est: DKK27.9B) 🟢
🔹 Wegovy: DKK 17.4B (Est: DKK19.0B) 🔴
🔹 Ozempic: DKK 32.7B (Est: DKK32.3B) 🟢
FY25 Guide:
🔹 Cuts Revenue Growth (cc): Now +13–21% vs. prior +16–24% 🔴
🔹 Maintained Operating Profit Growth (cc): +16–24%
Q1 Segment Performance
🔹 US Revenue: +20% YoY
🔹 Obesity Revenue: +67% YoY
🔹 Insulin Revenue: +13% YoY
🔹 Rare Disease Revenue: +5% YoY
🔹 Free Cash Flow: DKK 10B (+89% YoY)
🔸 CEO: ~1/3 of US obesity market now held by GLP-1 compounders
🔸 CFO: Expects 2H utilization step-up for Wegovy and potential label expansion in Q3
🔸 GLP-1 penetration impacted by rapid compounding expansion in the US
🔸 Actively addressing unlawful and unsafe compounding practices
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$NVO | Novo Nordisk Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: DKK 78.1B (Est: DKK78.7B) 😐; +19% YoY
🔹 Net Profit: DKK 29.0B (Est: DKK27.9B) 🟢
🔹 Wegovy: DKK 17.4B (Est: DKK19.0B) 🔴
🔹 Ozempic: DKK 32.7B (Est: DKK32.3B) 🟢
FY25 Guide:
🔹 Cuts Revenue Growth (cc): Now +13–21% vs. prior +16–24% 🔴
🔹 Maintained Operating Profit Growth (cc): +16–24%
Q1 Segment Performance
🔹 US Revenue: +20% YoY
🔹 Obesity Revenue: +67% YoY
🔹 Insulin Revenue: +13% YoY
🔹 Rare Disease Revenue: +5% YoY
🔹 Free Cash Flow: DKK 10B (+89% YoY)
🔸 CEO: ~1/3 of US obesity market now held by GLP-1 compounders
🔸 CFO: Expects 2H utilization step-up for Wegovy and potential label expansion in Q3
🔸 GLP-1 penetration impacted by rapid compounding expansion in the US
🔸 Actively addressing unlawful and unsafe compounding practices
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Wall St Engine
Citi Maintains Neutral on $CAVA, Lowers PT to $114 from $120
Analyst comments: "Key questions ahead of 1Q25 earnings (5/15 AMC) include: (1) Progress on the relaunched loyalty program in terms of member engagement, and where CAVA stands on offering more targeted consumer promotions; (2) The impact of the new labor and deployment model on productivity across dayparts, including peak efficiency and areas of unmet demand; (3) Updates on operational initiatives such as AI make-line monitoring, Project Soul, and the new KDS test, and whether benefits are expected to drop to the bottom line or be reinvested; (4) Tariff impacts on the P&L or build/equipment costs; (5) Expectations for new product innovation in 2025.
Footfall data slowed in the quarter (+18.6% year-over-year vs. +25.4% in 4Q), with January being strongest and April the slowest. App usage showed gradual improvement, and Bloomberg data indicated sales/traffic slowed but remained around +20%. New guest mix stayed near ~40% in 1Q, consistent with 4Q. Fourteen units opened in the quarter, ahead of Street expectations (13).
We adjust our 2025E/2026E EPS to $0.46/$0.63 from $0.37/$0.53 on lower depreciation and amortization expectations. Our price target moves to $114, reflecting a 60x EV/EBITDA multiple on our forward 12-month EBITDA estimate (down from ~4.6x to ~4.1x the market multiple) to account for a broadly choppy backdrop in the restaurant sector."
Analyst: Jon Tower
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Citi Maintains Neutral on $CAVA, Lowers PT to $114 from $120
Analyst comments: "Key questions ahead of 1Q25 earnings (5/15 AMC) include: (1) Progress on the relaunched loyalty program in terms of member engagement, and where CAVA stands on offering more targeted consumer promotions; (2) The impact of the new labor and deployment model on productivity across dayparts, including peak efficiency and areas of unmet demand; (3) Updates on operational initiatives such as AI make-line monitoring, Project Soul, and the new KDS test, and whether benefits are expected to drop to the bottom line or be reinvested; (4) Tariff impacts on the P&L or build/equipment costs; (5) Expectations for new product innovation in 2025.
Footfall data slowed in the quarter (+18.6% year-over-year vs. +25.4% in 4Q), with January being strongest and April the slowest. App usage showed gradual improvement, and Bloomberg data indicated sales/traffic slowed but remained around +20%. New guest mix stayed near ~40% in 1Q, consistent with 4Q. Fourteen units opened in the quarter, ahead of Street expectations (13).
We adjust our 2025E/2026E EPS to $0.46/$0.63 from $0.37/$0.53 on lower depreciation and amortization expectations. Our price target moves to $114, reflecting a 60x EV/EBITDA multiple on our forward 12-month EBITDA estimate (down from ~4.6x to ~4.1x the market multiple) to account for a broadly choppy backdrop in the restaurant sector."
Analyst: Jon Tower
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Wall St Engine
BofA Reiterates Underperform on $CELH, PT $30
Analyst comments: "Light 1Q results were more complicated than expected. Year-ago laps against Essentials distribution expansion muddied the view on underlying demand. Shipment pull-forward into 4Q and a step-up in promotions created a larger-than-anticipated gap between scanner data and reported results. Underlying demand remains unclear, with scanner data showing a -2% year-over-year decline through April 19, largely due to lapping a Club channel promotional event and only a slight sales decline in other scanned retail. We expect year-over-year consumption to improve over the rest of the quarter, but now also factor in a promotional increase that could hurt 2Q sales before becoming a tailwind in 2H25.
Alani Nu remains a question mark until more information is shared by management on an expected modeling call. Inventory step-up is likely to weigh on Alani’s gross margin in the near term, though the long-term 50% gross margin target remains possible."
Analyst: Jonathan Keypour
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BofA Reiterates Underperform on $CELH, PT $30
Analyst comments: "Light 1Q results were more complicated than expected. Year-ago laps against Essentials distribution expansion muddied the view on underlying demand. Shipment pull-forward into 4Q and a step-up in promotions created a larger-than-anticipated gap between scanner data and reported results. Underlying demand remains unclear, with scanner data showing a -2% year-over-year decline through April 19, largely due to lapping a Club channel promotional event and only a slight sales decline in other scanned retail. We expect year-over-year consumption to improve over the rest of the quarter, but now also factor in a promotional increase that could hurt 2Q sales before becoming a tailwind in 2H25.
Alani Nu remains a question mark until more information is shared by management on an expected modeling call. Inventory step-up is likely to weigh on Alani’s gross margin in the near term, though the long-term 50% gross margin target remains possible."
Analyst: Jonathan Keypour
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