⁠Wall St Engine
$CELH | Celsius Holdings Q1 2025 Earnings Highlights:

🔹 Revenue: $329.3M (Est. $348.6M) 🔴
🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.18 (Est. $0.20) 🔴
🔹 Gross Margin: 52.3% (+110 bps YoY)
🔹 Adj EBITDA: $69.7M vs. $88.0M YoY

Segment Revenue:
🔹 North America: $306.5M, DOWN -10% YoY
🔹 International: $22.8M, UP +41% YoY
🔹 Organic growth in EMEA; new launches in UK, Ireland, France, Australia & NZ
🔹 Excluding 2024 launches, international revenue UP +9% YoY

Retail Performance:
🔹 U.S. Retail Dollar Sales: CELSIUS -3% YoY

Dollar Share:
🔹 CELSIUS: 10.9% (DOWN -140bps YoY)
🔹 Alani Nu: 5.3% (UP +221bps YoY)
🔹 Combined CELH Portfolio: 16.2% (UP +81bps YoY)
🔹 Alani Nu surpassed $1B in trailing 12-month retail sales (as of Apr. 13, 2025)

Market Share by Country:
🔹 Sweden: 13.5% | Finland: 6.0% | New Zealand: 4.5%
🔹 Canada: 4.0% | Australia: 2.5% | Ireland: 1.2%
🔹 France: 0.6% | Great Britain: 0.2%

Commentary & Strategic Update:
🔸 Closed Alani Nu® acquisition on April 1, 2025, adding a second billion-dollar brand

🔸 Gross margin improved due to sourcing efficiencies
🔸 SG&A rose 22% YoY to $120.3M, driven by acquisition-related costs and global headcount investments

🔸 Q1 revenue decline attributed to timing of distributor incentives and lower promo activity compared to prior year

🔸 CEO: “Momentum building in Q2 with stronger shelf presence and international traction; well-positioned for leadership in modern energy”
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BofA Reiterates Buy Rating on $F, PT $14, Says Ford Positioned to Capitalize on U.S. Footprint

Analyst comments: "Ford delivered a solid performance in 1Q25, and the lower losses in Model e were encouraging. Management continued to emphasize the strength of Ford’s portfolio in the core truck market, though they acknowledged that high volatility limits forward visibility. While the estimated impact from tariffs is not insignificant, we believe it is relatively manageable in the broader context. Ford is well positioned to capitalize on its large U.S. manufacturing footprint, which should help the automaker gain market share. We reiterate our Buy rating."

Analyst: John Murphy
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$RACE | Ferrari Q1'25 Earnings Highlights

🔹 Revenue: €1.79B (Est. €1.77B) 🟢
🔹 Diluted EPS: €2.30 (Est. €2.25) 🟢
🔹 Net Profit: €412M (vs. €352M YoY) +17%

FY25 Guidance:
🔹 Adj. EPS: €8.46 – €8.60 (vs. Est. €8.94) 🔴
🔹 Revenue: > €7.0B (vs. €6.7B in 2024)
🔹 Adj. EBITDA: ≥ €2.68B, Margin ≥ 38.3%
🔹 Adj. EBIT: ≥ €2.03B, Margin ≥ 29.0%
🔹 Industrial FCF: ≥ €1.20B
🔸 Tariff Impact Risk: Potential -50bps drag on EBITDA/EBIT margin

Other Key Q1 Metrics:
🔹 EBITDA: €693M (vs. €605M YoY) +15%
🔹 Industrial Free Cash Flow: €620M
🔹 Gross Margin (EBITDA): 38.7% (vs. 38.2% YoY) +50 bps
🔹 EBIT Margin: 30.3% (vs. 27.9% YoY) +240 bps

Shipments:
🔹 Total Units: 3,593 (vs. 3,560 YoY) +1%
🔹EMEA: +8%
🔹Americas: +3%
🔹Mainland China, HK & Taiwan: -25%
🔹Rest of APAC: -6%
🔹 Product Mix: 51% ICE / 49% Hybrid

Segment Revenue:
🔹 Cars & Spare Parts: €1.536B (UP +11%)
🔹 Sponsorship, Commercial & Brand: €191M (UP +32%)
🔹 Other (e.g., financial services): €64M (UP +10%)

Commentary & Strategic Updates:
🔸 CEO: “Strong profitability driven by product mix and demand for personalizations. Strategy remains focused on quality of revenue.”
🔸 Six new models in 2025 including 296 Speciale, 296 Speciale A, and the first Ferrari Elettrica.
🔸 SG&A rose due to racing and brand investments; offset partially by model phase-outs reducing D&A.
🔸 Net industrial debt improved to €49M (from €180M in Dec 2024).

Other Highlights:
🔸 Participated in Exor’s accelerated bookbuild, repurchasing €300M in shares
🔸 Announced commercial pricing update post-April 2 due to U.S. import tariffs (up to +10% pricing for non-exempt models)
🔸 Lifestyle segment expected to grow in contribution
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$CEG | Constellation Energy Q1'25 Earnings Highlights

🔹 Revenue: $6.79B (Est. $5.24B) 🟢
🔹 Adj. EPS: $2.14 (Est. $2.16) 🔴
🔹 Adj. Net Income: $673M (vs. $579M YoY) +16%

FY25 Guidance:
🔹 Adj. EPS: $8.90–$9.60 (Est. $9.57) 🟡
🔸 Guidance reaffirmed despite macro/policy uncertainty
🔸 Calpine acquisition expected to close by Q4'25

Other Q1 Metrics:
🔹 Nuclear Output: 45,582 GWh (vs. 45,391 GWh YoY)
🔹 Nuclear Capacity Factor: 94.1% (vs. 93.3% YoY)
🔹 Gas Fleet Dispatch Match: 99.2% (vs. 97.9% YoY)
🔹 Renewables Capture: 96.2% (vs. 96.3% YoY)

Strategic Updates:
🔸 Crane Clean Energy Center selected for fast-track PJM interconnect
🔸 PJM approved >1,150 MW of clean capacity additions from CEG
🔸 CEO: “We’re powering the AI era… demand from tech partners surging”
🔸 Actively investing in clean, firm capacity amid AI and national security focus

Commentary:
🔸 “Q1 strength highlights fleet reliability, customer demand, and strategic positioning.”
🔸 CEG reaffirmed its long-term value creation strategy, leveraging nuclear/gas mix
🔸 Acquisition of Calpine to create the largest competitive clean energy retailer in U.S.
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$SEDG | SolarEdge Q1'25 Earnings Highlights

🔹 Revenue: $219.5M (Est. $204.2M) 🟢
🔹 EPS: ($1.14) (Est. ($1.16)) 🟢

Q2'25 Guidance:
🔹 Revenue: $265M–$285M (Est. $243.7M) 🟢
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$DDOG | Datadog Q1'25 Earnings Highlights

🔹 Revenue: $762M (Est. $739M) 🟢; +25% YoY
🔹 EPS (Non-GAAP): $0.46 (Est. $0.43) 🟢
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $244M; +28%
🔹 $100K+ ARR Customers: ~3,770 (vs. 3,340 YoY) +13%

FY25 (Raised):
🔹 Revenue: $3.215B–$3.235B (Est. $3.19B) 🟢
🔹 EPS (Non-GAAP): $1.67–$1.71 (Prior: $1.65–$1.70 | Est. $1.69) 🟡

Q2 Guidance:
🔹 Revenue: $787M–$791M (Est. $768M) 🟢
🔹 EPS (Non-GAAP): $0.40–$0.42 (Est. $0.40) 🟢

Other Key Q1 Metrics:
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $272M
🔹 Non-GAAP Operating Margin: 22%
🔹 NG Gross Margin: 80% (vs. 83% YoY)
🔹 FCF Margin: 32% (vs. 31% YoY)

Commentary & Strategic Updates
🔸 CEO: “We’re innovating rapidly to help customers solve mission-critical problems in modern cloud environments.”
🔸 M&A: Acquired Eppo (feature flagging) & Metaplane (data observability)
🔸 Named Leader: Forrester Wave AIOps Platforms Q2 2025
🔸 New DC: Announced first data center in Australia
🔸 DASH Conference: Scheduled June 10–11 in NYC
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$DASH | DoorDash Q1'25 Earnings Highlights

🔹 Revenue: $3.03B (Est. $3.09B) 🔴
🔹 EPS: $0.44 (Est. $0.39) 🟢
🔹 Adj EBITDA: $590M (vs. $371M YoY) +59%
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $494M (vs. $487M YoY)
🔹 Net Revenue Margin: 13.1% (Flat YoY)

Guidance (Q2'25):
🔹 Marketplace GOV: $23.3B – $23.7B (Est. 23.5B) 😐
🔹 Adj EBITDA: $600M – $650M
🔸 Expects Q/Q margin improvement through Q3

Key Operating Metrics:
🔹 Total Orders: 732M; +18% YoY
🔹 Marketplace GOV: $23.08B; +20% YoY
🔹 Avg Order Frequency: All-time high
🔹 DashPass & Wolt+ Memberships: Y/Y growth accelerated
🔹 International MAUs: Double-digit Y/Y growth

Acquisition Announcements:
🔸 SevenRooms (Hospitality software, $1.2B deal)
🔸 Deliveroo plc (UK-based, $2.9B all-cash offer)
🔸 Purpose: Enhance commerce platform, expand categories, increase international scale
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BARCLAYS CUTS PORSCHE AG TO EQUALWEIGHT, PT TO €42.50 FROM €62.50.

Analyst says they underestimated the scale of Porsche’s volume, cost, and product reset. EPS slashed ~30–37% through 2027, with limited near-term recovery. Valuation still rich at 14x vs peers like BMW near 6.5x.
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MARRIOTT $MAR TRIMS 2025 OUTLOOK, SEES ROOM REV GROWTH OF 1.5%–3.5% VS PRIOR 2%–4%.
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INDIA TRADE MINISTER: IF EUROPEAN UNION PUTS A CARBON TAX, INDIA WILL HAVE TO RETALIATE
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EU 🇪🇺 SAID TO TARGET €100 BILLION OF US GOODS WITH TARIFFS IF TALKS FAIL

Bloomberg reports the European Commission may unveil the proposal this week, aiming to counter Trump's tariffs. In 2023, the EU posted a €48B trade surplus with the US, per EC data—driven by strong goods exports, offset partly by a €109B services deficit.
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FORD $F CEO JIM FARLEY: LEAST IMPACTED AND MOST ABLE TO ABSORB TARIFFS - CNBC
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GERMAN 🇩🇪 PARLIAMENT TO RECONVENE AT 1500 LOCAL TIME, 1300 GMT, ON TUESDAY AFTER FAILURE OF FIRST VOTE ON CHANCELLOR - N-TV
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HERE'S WHAT ANALYSTS HAVE TO SAY AFTER $HIMS EARNINGS:

1) Needham – $61 PT – BUY – Ryan MacDonald

"We reiterate our Buy rating following the company's strong 1Q beat that was driven primarily by weight loss. However, given the transition of compound GLP-1 customers that received commercially available doses, HIMS' 2Q rev guide came in light of consensus. While shares are trading off on the 2Q guide, we believe this creates an attractive buying opportunity for investors as HIMS' expanding portfolio of weight loss offerings positions the company well to better retain and grow its base of subscribers in the category, while new category launches in 2H25 will contribute to the growth algorithm to achieve a new $6.5B rev target in 2030. Given new category expansion requires investment, we were also impressed that growth will not come at the expense of margin expansion, with HIMS maintaining its 20% expectation for 2030."

2) Morgan Stanley – $40 PT – EQUALWEIGHT – Craig Hettenbach

"Hims posted a substantial beat in Q1’25 and guided Q2 revenue below the Street and EBITDA essentially in line. Revenue increased 111% y/y to $586mn, well ahead of our estimate of $531mn and the Street at $535mn. EBITDA of $91mn beat by $30mn, driven by revenue upside and significant S&M leverage (39% vs. estimated 45%). Guidance for Q2 revenue of $540mn and EBITDA of $70mn is below Street at $567mn/$71mn. Positives: 50% beat on EBITDA; expanded weight loss offerings including Novo partnership; oral drug subscribers +300% y/y; new hormone category to launch by year-end. Negatives: GM of 73% missed expectations (second straight miss), first-ever guide below Street, and moderation in sexual health growth due to mix shift."

3) Truist Securities – $33 PT – HOLD – Jailendra Singh

"HIMS posted 1Q25 results with revenues and adjusted EBITDA ahead. The majority of the beat ($42M of $47M) came from GLP-1 offerings, which likely supported reaffirmed full-year outlook. Q2 revenue guide was below consensus due to transitions off compounded GLP-1s and seasonal benefits in Q1. Sexual health may remain volatile as the company shifts to daily-use models. However, FY25 EBITDA guidance was raised by $15–$20M. Overall, a mixed quarter—better than bearish fears on core business, but short of bullish expectations for consistent beat-and-raise."

4) Leerink Partners – $42 PT – MARKET PERFORM (Raised from $40) – Michael Cherny

"HIMS’s 2Q earnings touched on key flash points as it shifts to next-gen GLP-1 sales via its Novo Nordisk partnership, oral options, and liraglutide. Reiterated weight management guidance shows category strength, but with semaglutide still in use, long-term clarity is needed. While sexual health trends remain choppy, 2030 targets point to solid growth. We raise PT to $42 based on higher profitability pull-through, maintain 24x CY26 EBITDA multiple, and reiterate Market Perform given upside potential vs. durability concerns."

5) TD Cowen – $38 PT – HOLD (Raised from $30) – Jonna Kim

"HIMS remains differentiated via its trusted brand and personalized offerings, but we think consistent beat-and-raise performance will be tough going forward. Comparisons get harder and competition for branded GLP-1s is increasing. Net subscriber adds slowed to ~135k in Q1 vs. ~180k in Q4/3Q24. This reflects higher CAC for weight loss versus other categories like hair loss. Core business growth moderated, and while weight loss is a key driver, we stay Hold as we watch for shifts in consumer behavior and GLP-1 transitions."

6) BofA Securities – $28 PT – UNDERPERFORM (Raised from $26) – Michael Cherny

"Following this quarter’s earnings, we see a wider range of revenue outcomes. If HIMS leans into personalized semaglutide, it could exceed guidance and generate $900M+ in GLP-1 revenue[...]

for 2025—but this could reintroduce litigation risks. Alternatively, reinvesting in core might stabilize growth but hit the low end of guidance. HIMS could do both, which adds upside risk to our estimates. While operating leverage improved, we maintain our cautious view due to macro headwinds and potential risk reintroduction. PT raised to $28, same valuation basis."
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INDIA 🇮🇳 OFFICIAL SAYS US TRADE NEGOTIATIONS GOING EXTREMELY WELL
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US MARCH TRADE GAP WIDENS TO RECORD $140.5B; EST. $137.2B https://t.co/nB8AGennLa
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