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A new bipartisan bill aims to crack down on AI chip smuggling to China by requiring post-sale tracking of chips like those made by Nvidia $NVDA. Lawmakers say the tech to verify chip location already exists and should be used to enforce U.S. export controls.
Source: Reuters https://t.co/wnuEJKpVmB
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A new bipartisan bill aims to crack down on AI chip smuggling to China by requiring post-sale tracking of chips like those made by Nvidia $NVDA. Lawmakers say the tech to verify chip location already exists and should be used to enforce U.S. export controls.
Source: Reuters https://t.co/wnuEJKpVmB
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HKMA chief Eddie Yue says Hong Kong has been cutting duration in US Treasuries and diversifying into non-U.S. assets. The Exchange Fund is also shifting currency exposure in its investment portfolio to manage risk.
FWIW, Hong Kong ranks as the 12th largest foreign holder of USTs https://t.co/ELjHI6zi5w
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HKMA chief Eddie Yue says Hong Kong has been cutting duration in US Treasuries and diversifying into non-U.S. assets. The Exchange Fund is also shifting currency exposure in its investment portfolio to manage risk.
FWIW, Hong Kong ranks as the 12th largest foreign holder of USTs https://t.co/ELjHI6zi5w
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While Apollo flagged liquidity concerns in “off-the-run” credit, PIMCO points to record-high trading volumes and tight IG bid-ask spreads as signs the broader public credit market is holding up just fine. As they put it: “No material signs of stress in public IG credit.” https://t.co/BD4lJzEHgO
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While Apollo flagged liquidity concerns in “off-the-run” credit, PIMCO points to record-high trading volumes and tight IG bid-ask spreads as signs the broader public credit market is holding up just fine. As they put it: “No material signs of stress in public IG credit.” https://t.co/BD4lJzEHgO
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Wall St Engine
JPMorgan Downgrades $SG to Neutral from Overweight, Lowers PT to $25 from $32
Analyst comments: "Sweetgreen is an example of major valuation changes – both positive and negative – that often occur during periods of sales momentum shifts in high-growth small- and mid-cap coverage. We are downgrading Sweetgreen to Neutral with a $25 December 2026 price target for several reasons. First, we see underlying demand trends continuing to soften, with further impact moving into higher-income demographics. Absolute value has become an issue at the brand, with most protein-containing bowls/salads priced at $13–17, or 7–30% higher on average than peers. Loyalty programs can help improve value and customer communication, but they are increasingly considered standard across the restaurant space. Second, restaurant supply growth has been exceeding demand, driving greater consumer choice in a digital world where convenience is commoditized and price transparency is high. Third, Sweetgreen is expected to remain free cash flow negative through FY30, with a minimum $100 million cash balance suggesting low double-digit percentage annual unit growth at best from FY26–30."
Analyst: Rahul Krotthapalli
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JPMorgan Downgrades $SG to Neutral from Overweight, Lowers PT to $25 from $32
Analyst comments: "Sweetgreen is an example of major valuation changes – both positive and negative – that often occur during periods of sales momentum shifts in high-growth small- and mid-cap coverage. We are downgrading Sweetgreen to Neutral with a $25 December 2026 price target for several reasons. First, we see underlying demand trends continuing to soften, with further impact moving into higher-income demographics. Absolute value has become an issue at the brand, with most protein-containing bowls/salads priced at $13–17, or 7–30% higher on average than peers. Loyalty programs can help improve value and customer communication, but they are increasingly considered standard across the restaurant space. Second, restaurant supply growth has been exceeding demand, driving greater consumer choice in a digital world where convenience is commoditized and price transparency is high. Third, Sweetgreen is expected to remain free cash flow negative through FY30, with a minimum $100 million cash balance suggesting low double-digit percentage annual unit growth at best from FY26–30."
Analyst: Rahul Krotthapalli
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Wall St Engine
Morgan Stanley Reiterates Equalweight Rating on $HIMS, PT $40; 'This marked the first time in the company’s history that next quarter revenue was guided below the Street"
"Hims posted a substantial beat in Q1’25 and guided Q2 revenue below the Street and EBITDA essentially in line. Revenue increased 111% year-over-year to $586 million, well ahead of our estimate of $531 million and the Street's $535 million. EBITDA of $91 million beat by $30 million, driven by revenue upside and material leverage in sales and marketing (39% of sales vs. estimated 45%). For Q2, management guided to revenue of $540 million and EBITDA of $70 million at the midpoint, versus Street expectations of $567 million and $71 million. The company reiterated 2025 guidance of $2.3–$2.4 billion in revenue and raised EBITDA guidance by $20 million to a range of $295–$335 million.
Positives include: 1) a 50% EBITDA beat in the quarter, raising 2025 guidance by 7%; 2) expanded weight loss offerings through a partnership with Novo, with management targeting at least $725 million in weight loss revenue in 2025, and citing a 300% year-over-year increase in oral drug subscribers; 3) a new hormone category launch (low testosterone and menopause support) expected by year-end.
Negatives include: 1) gross margin of 73% in Q1, which missed Street expectations by 420 basis points—the second consecutive quarterly miss; 2) this is the first time in the company’s history that next quarter revenue was guided below Street expectations; 3) moderation in sexual health revenue growth as the company shifts mix toward daily use and de-emphasizes on-demand, potentially raising concerns over slowing category growth or rising competition."
Analyst: Craig Hettenbach
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Morgan Stanley Reiterates Equalweight Rating on $HIMS, PT $40; 'This marked the first time in the company’s history that next quarter revenue was guided below the Street"
"Hims posted a substantial beat in Q1’25 and guided Q2 revenue below the Street and EBITDA essentially in line. Revenue increased 111% year-over-year to $586 million, well ahead of our estimate of $531 million and the Street's $535 million. EBITDA of $91 million beat by $30 million, driven by revenue upside and material leverage in sales and marketing (39% of sales vs. estimated 45%). For Q2, management guided to revenue of $540 million and EBITDA of $70 million at the midpoint, versus Street expectations of $567 million and $71 million. The company reiterated 2025 guidance of $2.3–$2.4 billion in revenue and raised EBITDA guidance by $20 million to a range of $295–$335 million.
Positives include: 1) a 50% EBITDA beat in the quarter, raising 2025 guidance by 7%; 2) expanded weight loss offerings through a partnership with Novo, with management targeting at least $725 million in weight loss revenue in 2025, and citing a 300% year-over-year increase in oral drug subscribers; 3) a new hormone category launch (low testosterone and menopause support) expected by year-end.
Negatives include: 1) gross margin of 73% in Q1, which missed Street expectations by 420 basis points—the second consecutive quarterly miss; 2) this is the first time in the company’s history that next quarter revenue was guided below Street expectations; 3) moderation in sexual health revenue growth as the company shifts mix toward daily use and de-emphasizes on-demand, potentially raising concerns over slowing category growth or rising competition."
Analyst: Craig Hettenbach
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Hidden Value Gems
Thank you for voting! Almost every fifth shareholder plans to sell their stock in the near-term. A bit surprised by the high percentage.
#BRK
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Thank you for voting! Almost every fifth shareholder plans to sell their stock in the near-term. A bit surprised by the high percentage.
#BRK
If you are a Berkshire shareholder, will you sell some or all of your shares in the next 1-2 weeks following yesterday’s news?
- Yes
- No
- Haven’t decided yet tweet
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Wall St Engine
Goldman Sachs Reiterates Neutral Rating on $TSLA, PT $235; Cites FSD Progress
Analyst comments: "On February 25, 2025, media outlets reported that Tesla had pushed an update to some users who had previously purchased Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) software (~$8,750 USD) that included several FSD-like features such as automatic lane change, traffic light detection, and turning capabilities. Tesla noted on its 1Q25 earnings call that it was able to launch supervised FSD in China using minimal localized data by leveraging its more generalized software. However, media reports suggest FSD has historically performed better in the U.S. due to more extensive data and refinement time. Tesla acknowledged the value of localized training and parameters.
Initial reviews indicate FSD in China has performed relatively well despite limited data collection, though some note issues such as confusion around local traffic rules (e.g., entering bike lanes on turns) and sporadic lane errors. Tesla’s FSD is one of several ADAS options in China, where many local competitors already offer such features standard on mainstream vehicles. We believe the level of technology and cost improvements Tesla can achieve with FSD will be critical to its long-term autonomy economics, both globally and in China.
There have also been media reports suggesting China aims to tighten regulations on testing, deploying, and marketing smart driving features. Tesla intends to launch its robotaxi service in Texas starting June 2025, and we believe the vehicle cost structure—approximately $35.5K in COGS globally in 1Q25—could offer a cost advantage in the U.S. market if its technology proves viable. Any future China robotaxi initiative would face a more competitive landscape, and success would hinge on technological development, scale/cost advantages, and regulatory approval."
Analyst: Mark Delaney
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Goldman Sachs Reiterates Neutral Rating on $TSLA, PT $235; Cites FSD Progress
Analyst comments: "On February 25, 2025, media outlets reported that Tesla had pushed an update to some users who had previously purchased Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) software (~$8,750 USD) that included several FSD-like features such as automatic lane change, traffic light detection, and turning capabilities. Tesla noted on its 1Q25 earnings call that it was able to launch supervised FSD in China using minimal localized data by leveraging its more generalized software. However, media reports suggest FSD has historically performed better in the U.S. due to more extensive data and refinement time. Tesla acknowledged the value of localized training and parameters.
Initial reviews indicate FSD in China has performed relatively well despite limited data collection, though some note issues such as confusion around local traffic rules (e.g., entering bike lanes on turns) and sporadic lane errors. Tesla’s FSD is one of several ADAS options in China, where many local competitors already offer such features standard on mainstream vehicles. We believe the level of technology and cost improvements Tesla can achieve with FSD will be critical to its long-term autonomy economics, both globally and in China.
There have also been media reports suggesting China aims to tighten regulations on testing, deploying, and marketing smart driving features. Tesla intends to launch its robotaxi service in Texas starting June 2025, and we believe the vehicle cost structure—approximately $35.5K in COGS globally in 1Q25—could offer a cost advantage in the U.S. market if its technology proves viable. Any future China robotaxi initiative would face a more competitive landscape, and success would hinge on technological development, scale/cost advantages, and regulatory approval."
Analyst: Mark Delaney
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HERE'S WHAT ANALYSTS HAVE TO SAY AFTER $PLTR EARNINGS:
1) DA Davidson – $115 PT – NEUTRAL (Raised from $100) - Gil Luria
"Palantir reported a strong quarter with revenue growth accelerating further due to 'unrelenting' demand in a seasonally light quarter. Despite recent uncertainty introduced from tariff announcements, Palantir continues to see underlying momentum in the business landing a record number of $1M deals. Palantir produced strong results with a revenue beat of ~$24M in the quarter, compared to its TTM average of $33M, with revenue growth accelerating to 39% Y/Y, compared to 36% last quarter. Palantir's US business continues to drive results landing the lion share of new customers in the quarter. US commercial revenue had yet another healthy quarter growing 75% Y/Y excluding revenue from strategic commercial contracts, compared to 76% growth last quarter. Revenue from strategic commercial contracts was $5.1M, in-line with management expectations. Overall, Palantir had its highest US Commercial total contract value of $810M."
2) Morgan Stanley – $98 PT – EQUALWEIGHT (Raised from $90) - Sanjit Singh
"What Did We Learn from Q1? Palantir Is Firing on Nearly All Cylinders. On the government side, YoY revenue growth accelerated to +45% YoY while the company closed 139 deals over $1 million in TCV including 51 deals over $5 million and 31 over $10 million. A record $810 million in US Commercial TCV was booked in Q1 - up +183% YoY. US commercial business grew +71% YoY from +63% in Q4. International government accelerated to +46% YoY from +29%. International commercial was the only weak spot, falling -5% YoY."
3) Goldman Sachs – $90 PT – NEUTRAL (Raised from $80) - Gabriela Borges
"We continue to view Palantir as well positioned to continue to deliver best-in-class growth given the secular trend towards enterprise AI adoption; the continued push for efficiency and technology adoption in the US government; and adoption of Operation Warp Speed among new defense entrants, traditional defense companies, and the broader manufacturing industry. Our positive view of Palantir's growth is balanced by longer term ecosystem risks (the industry moving from peak custom to more off-the-shelf adoption) and the stock premium valuation. Palantir trades at an EV/Sales/growth multiple of 2.2x, EV/Sales of 81x, and EV/Sales/"Rule of 40" of 0.97x vs. peers at 0.5x, 12x, and 0.28x respectively."
4) Raymond James – Rating: MARKET PERFORM - Brian Gesuale
"Palantir kicked off 2025 with strong results and guide that will take estimates closer to our above-guidance/above-consensus model, though this was not enough to satiate buyers given the stock's 64% YTD move... and rich whisper expectations heading into the print (stock down 9% in after-hours). Fundamentals were healthy with a 1.4% topline beat, U.S. comm growth of 71%, and AEBIT beat of ~8.3%. Raised guide midpoint to $3.895B vs. Street at $3.752B and RJE at $3.832B. New FCF expectation of $1.7B (115% margin). While we remain enthusiastic about PLTR's long-term positioning in AI, we are maintaining our Market Perform rating given our view that shares need to consolidate stellar gains and grow into its rich valuation."
5) Mizuho – $94 PT – UNDERPERFORM (Raised from $80) - Gregg Moskowitz
"PLTR delivered a very good quarter, as revenue grew 39% Y/Y, ahead of our and the Street's ~36% forecast, and driven by US commercial and US government. Mgmt also raised its FY25 guidance by much more than the 1Q beat. We remain quite impressed by PLTR's recent execution, and given its strong positioning and execution, there's no denying that it is deserving of a premium valuation. However, valuation cannot and should not be irrelevant, and we find it very difficult to justify PLTR's very high multiple – 60x CY2026E [...]
HERE'S WHAT ANALYSTS HAVE TO SAY AFTER $PLTR EARNINGS:
1) DA Davidson – $115 PT – NEUTRAL (Raised from $100) - Gil Luria
"Palantir reported a strong quarter with revenue growth accelerating further due to 'unrelenting' demand in a seasonally light quarter. Despite recent uncertainty introduced from tariff announcements, Palantir continues to see underlying momentum in the business landing a record number of $1M deals. Palantir produced strong results with a revenue beat of ~$24M in the quarter, compared to its TTM average of $33M, with revenue growth accelerating to 39% Y/Y, compared to 36% last quarter. Palantir's US business continues to drive results landing the lion share of new customers in the quarter. US commercial revenue had yet another healthy quarter growing 75% Y/Y excluding revenue from strategic commercial contracts, compared to 76% growth last quarter. Revenue from strategic commercial contracts was $5.1M, in-line with management expectations. Overall, Palantir had its highest US Commercial total contract value of $810M."
2) Morgan Stanley – $98 PT – EQUALWEIGHT (Raised from $90) - Sanjit Singh
"What Did We Learn from Q1? Palantir Is Firing on Nearly All Cylinders. On the government side, YoY revenue growth accelerated to +45% YoY while the company closed 139 deals over $1 million in TCV including 51 deals over $5 million and 31 over $10 million. A record $810 million in US Commercial TCV was booked in Q1 - up +183% YoY. US commercial business grew +71% YoY from +63% in Q4. International government accelerated to +46% YoY from +29%. International commercial was the only weak spot, falling -5% YoY."
3) Goldman Sachs – $90 PT – NEUTRAL (Raised from $80) - Gabriela Borges
"We continue to view Palantir as well positioned to continue to deliver best-in-class growth given the secular trend towards enterprise AI adoption; the continued push for efficiency and technology adoption in the US government; and adoption of Operation Warp Speed among new defense entrants, traditional defense companies, and the broader manufacturing industry. Our positive view of Palantir's growth is balanced by longer term ecosystem risks (the industry moving from peak custom to more off-the-shelf adoption) and the stock premium valuation. Palantir trades at an EV/Sales/growth multiple of 2.2x, EV/Sales of 81x, and EV/Sales/"Rule of 40" of 0.97x vs. peers at 0.5x, 12x, and 0.28x respectively."
4) Raymond James – Rating: MARKET PERFORM - Brian Gesuale
"Palantir kicked off 2025 with strong results and guide that will take estimates closer to our above-guidance/above-consensus model, though this was not enough to satiate buyers given the stock's 64% YTD move... and rich whisper expectations heading into the print (stock down 9% in after-hours). Fundamentals were healthy with a 1.4% topline beat, U.S. comm growth of 71%, and AEBIT beat of ~8.3%. Raised guide midpoint to $3.895B vs. Street at $3.752B and RJE at $3.832B. New FCF expectation of $1.7B (115% margin). While we remain enthusiastic about PLTR's long-term positioning in AI, we are maintaining our Market Perform rating given our view that shares need to consolidate stellar gains and grow into its rich valuation."
5) Mizuho – $94 PT – UNDERPERFORM (Raised from $80) - Gregg Moskowitz
"PLTR delivered a very good quarter, as revenue grew 39% Y/Y, ahead of our and the Street's ~36% forecast, and driven by US commercial and US government. Mgmt also raised its FY25 guidance by much more than the 1Q beat. We remain quite impressed by PLTR's recent execution, and given its strong positioning and execution, there's no denying that it is deserving of a premium valuation. However, valuation cannot and should not be irrelevant, and we find it very difficult to justify PLTR's very high multiple – 60x CY2026E [...]
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Wall St Engine HERE'S WHAT ANALYSTS HAVE TO SAY AFTER $PLTR EARNINGS: 1) DA Davidson – $115 PT – NEUTRAL (Raised from $100) - Gil Luria "Palantir reported a strong quarter with revenue growth accelerating further due to 'unrelenting' demand in a seasonally…
revenue – that in our view already discounts material acceleration and upside versus consensus expectations."
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