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$F | Ford Q1'25 Earnings Highlights:
🔹 Revenue: $40.7B (Est. $38.15B) 🟢; -5% YoY
🔹 Adj EPS: $0.14 (Est. -$0.02) 🟢
🔹 Net Income: $471M
🔹 Estimated FY25 adjusted EBIT impact from tariffs: -$1.5B
🔸 Suspends FY forecast due to tariff-related uncertainty
Ford Pro (Commercial Vehicles):
🔹 Revenue: $15.2B (Est. $14.63B) 🟢; DOWN -16% YoY
🔹 EBIT: $1.31B
Model e (EV & Software):
🔹 Revenue: $1.2B (Est. $1.22B) 🟡
🔹 EBIT Loss: -$849M (Est. -$1.4B) 🟢
Ford Blue (Gasoline & Hybrids):
🔹 Revenue: $21.0B (Est. $20.08B) 🟢
🔹 EBIT: $96M (Est. -$288.3M) 🟢
Tariff Impact & Guidance Update:
🔹 Estimated FY25 adjusted EBIT impact from tariffs: -$1.5B
🔹 Total tariff-related costs in FY25: ~$2.5B
🔹 $1B of tariff costs mitigated via logistics and import strategies
🔹 FY25 Guidance: Suspended due to tariff-related uncertainty
Strategic & Market Commentary:
🔸 Guidance Withdrawal: Ford suspended its 2025 guidance originally projected at $7.0B–$8.5B EBIT, citing unresolved impacts of Trump's 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and parts.
🔸 CFO Sherry House: “We are focused on managing what we control.”
🔸 Tariff Strategy: Ford has halted exports to China, restructured supply routes from Mexico to Canada to avoid U.S. duties, and is leveraging recently approved credits for domestic assembly.
🔸 EV Losses: Projected EV and software unit losses of up to $5.5B in FY25; total segment losses since 2023 exceed $10B.
🔸 Architecture Development: Discontinued next-gen EV architecture program (FNV4) due to escalating costs and delays.
🔸 Consumer Response: Early Q1 demand spike attributed to customer concerns over price hikes from tariff impact; Ford offered incentives to boost market share.
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$F | Ford Q1'25 Earnings Highlights:
🔹 Revenue: $40.7B (Est. $38.15B) 🟢; -5% YoY
🔹 Adj EPS: $0.14 (Est. -$0.02) 🟢
🔹 Net Income: $471M
🔹 Estimated FY25 adjusted EBIT impact from tariffs: -$1.5B
🔸 Suspends FY forecast due to tariff-related uncertainty
Ford Pro (Commercial Vehicles):
🔹 Revenue: $15.2B (Est. $14.63B) 🟢; DOWN -16% YoY
🔹 EBIT: $1.31B
Model e (EV & Software):
🔹 Revenue: $1.2B (Est. $1.22B) 🟡
🔹 EBIT Loss: -$849M (Est. -$1.4B) 🟢
Ford Blue (Gasoline & Hybrids):
🔹 Revenue: $21.0B (Est. $20.08B) 🟢
🔹 EBIT: $96M (Est. -$288.3M) 🟢
Tariff Impact & Guidance Update:
🔹 Estimated FY25 adjusted EBIT impact from tariffs: -$1.5B
🔹 Total tariff-related costs in FY25: ~$2.5B
🔹 $1B of tariff costs mitigated via logistics and import strategies
🔹 FY25 Guidance: Suspended due to tariff-related uncertainty
Strategic & Market Commentary:
🔸 Guidance Withdrawal: Ford suspended its 2025 guidance originally projected at $7.0B–$8.5B EBIT, citing unresolved impacts of Trump's 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and parts.
🔸 CFO Sherry House: “We are focused on managing what we control.”
🔸 Tariff Strategy: Ford has halted exports to China, restructured supply routes from Mexico to Canada to avoid U.S. duties, and is leveraging recently approved credits for domestic assembly.
🔸 EV Losses: Projected EV and software unit losses of up to $5.5B in FY25; total segment losses since 2023 exceed $10B.
🔸 Architecture Development: Discontinued next-gen EV architecture program (FNV4) due to escalating costs and delays.
🔸 Consumer Response: Early Q1 demand spike attributed to customer concerns over price hikes from tariff impact; Ford offered incentives to boost market share.
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Wall St Engine
$MAT | Mattel Q1'25 Earnings Highlights:
🔹 Net Sales: $827M (Est. $786M) 🟢; +2% YoY
🔹 Adj EPS: -$0.03 (Est. -$0.10) 🟢
🔸 FY25 Guidance: PAUSED due to macroeconomic & tariff uncertainty
🔸No Tariff effect in Q1, but company is proactively mitigating expected future costs
Gross Billings by Category:
🔹 Dolls: $297M; UP +1% YoY as reported (+2% constant currency)
🔹 Infant, Toddler, & Preschool: $126M; DOWN -6% YoY (-5% constant currency)
🔹 Vehicles: $308M; UP +4% YoY (+6% constant currency)
🔹 Action Figures, Building Sets, Games & Other: $193M; UP +12% YoY (+14% constant currency)
Other Metrics:
🔹 Adj EBITDA: $57M; +$4M YoY
🔹 Adj Oper. Loss: -$16M
🔹 Adj Gross Margin: 49.6%; +130 bps YoY
Regional Performance:
🔹 North America: Net Sales UP +3% YoY
🔹 International: Net Sales UP +1% YoY (+5% in constant currency)
Cash Flow:
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $25M; DOWN -$11M YoY
🔹 Investing Cash Flow: -$31M; UP +$3M YoY
🔹 Financing & Other Cash Flow: -$138M; roughly flat YoY
🔹 Share Repurchases: $160M in Q1
🔹 Full-Year 2025 Buyback Target: $600M (reaffirmed)
Strategic & Tariff-Related Commentary:
🔸 Tariff Impact: No effect in Q1, but company is proactively mitigating expected future costs
🔸 Mitigation Actions:
— Reducing reliance on China-sourced product
— Optimizing product sourcing and mix
— Taking selective pricing action in U.S.
— Rebalancing promotional spend
🔸 Cost Savings Program: Raised 2025 savings target from $60M to $80M
CEO Ynon Kreiz's Commentary:
🔸 “This was a strong quarter for Mattel, with positive performance and continued operational excellence. We are navigating macro volatility with agility and discipline and remain focused on strengthening our competitive position.”
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$MAT | Mattel Q1'25 Earnings Highlights:
🔹 Net Sales: $827M (Est. $786M) 🟢; +2% YoY
🔹 Adj EPS: -$0.03 (Est. -$0.10) 🟢
🔸 FY25 Guidance: PAUSED due to macroeconomic & tariff uncertainty
🔸No Tariff effect in Q1, but company is proactively mitigating expected future costs
Gross Billings by Category:
🔹 Dolls: $297M; UP +1% YoY as reported (+2% constant currency)
🔹 Infant, Toddler, & Preschool: $126M; DOWN -6% YoY (-5% constant currency)
🔹 Vehicles: $308M; UP +4% YoY (+6% constant currency)
🔹 Action Figures, Building Sets, Games & Other: $193M; UP +12% YoY (+14% constant currency)
Other Metrics:
🔹 Adj EBITDA: $57M; +$4M YoY
🔹 Adj Oper. Loss: -$16M
🔹 Adj Gross Margin: 49.6%; +130 bps YoY
Regional Performance:
🔹 North America: Net Sales UP +3% YoY
🔹 International: Net Sales UP +1% YoY (+5% in constant currency)
Cash Flow:
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $25M; DOWN -$11M YoY
🔹 Investing Cash Flow: -$31M; UP +$3M YoY
🔹 Financing & Other Cash Flow: -$138M; roughly flat YoY
🔹 Share Repurchases: $160M in Q1
🔹 Full-Year 2025 Buyback Target: $600M (reaffirmed)
Strategic & Tariff-Related Commentary:
🔸 Tariff Impact: No effect in Q1, but company is proactively mitigating expected future costs
🔸 Mitigation Actions:
— Reducing reliance on China-sourced product
— Optimizing product sourcing and mix
— Taking selective pricing action in U.S.
— Rebalancing promotional spend
🔸 Cost Savings Program: Raised 2025 savings target from $60M to $80M
CEO Ynon Kreiz's Commentary:
🔸 “This was a strong quarter for Mattel, with positive performance and continued operational excellence. We are navigating macro volatility with agility and discipline and remain focused on strengthening our competitive position.”
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$HIMS just guided to a 2030 target of at least $6.5B revenue and $1.3B in Adj. EBITDA (20% margin).
How: global expansion of their platform 🌎
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$HIMS just guided to a 2030 target of at least $6.5B revenue and $1.3B in Adj. EBITDA (20% margin).
How: global expansion of their platform 🌎
$HIMS Q1 Earnings 🚨
• Revenue $586M vs $538 Est.
• EPS $0.20 vs. $0.23 Est.
FY25 Outlook
• Sales $2.35B vs Est. $2.32B
Stock is down -5% tweet
Wall St Engine
Nike $NKE is restructuring its leadership team, splitting Consumer, Product & Brand into three new areas: Consumer and Sport, Marketing, and Product Creation. Longtime exec Heidi O’Neill will retire, while Amy Montagne, Phil McCartney, and Nicole Graham step into expanded roles to support the company’s Win Now growth plan.
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Nike $NKE is restructuring its leadership team, splitting Consumer, Product & Brand into three new areas: Consumer and Sport, Marketing, and Product Creation. Longtime exec Heidi O’Neill will retire, while Amy Montagne, Phil McCartney, and Nicole Graham step into expanded roles to support the company’s Win Now growth plan.
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App Economy Insights
$HIMS Hims & Hers Q1 FY25:
• Subs +38% Y/Y to 2.4M.
• Revenue +111% to $586M ($47M beat).
• Adj. EBITDA margin 16% (+4pp Y/Y).
• EPS $0.20 ($0.08 in beat).
FY25 Outlook
• Rev. ~$2.35B (unchanged).
• Adj. EBITDA margin 13%-14% (1pp raise). https://t.co/Vp05gXxq3p
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$HIMS Hims & Hers Q1 FY25:
• Subs +38% Y/Y to 2.4M.
• Revenue +111% to $586M ($47M beat).
• Adj. EBITDA margin 16% (+4pp Y/Y).
• EPS $0.20 ($0.08 in beat).
FY25 Outlook
• Rev. ~$2.35B (unchanged).
• Adj. EBITDA margin 13%-14% (1pp raise). https://t.co/Vp05gXxq3p
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Wall St Engine
Mattel $MAT is planning U.S. price hikes & accelerating production shifts out of China as it grapples with tariffs. The company pulled its full-year forecast, saying the trade environment makes consumer spending too hard to predict. About 40% of its toys are still made in China. https://t.co/jJpq6z2Tmi
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Mattel $MAT is planning U.S. price hikes & accelerating production shifts out of China as it grapples with tariffs. The company pulled its full-year forecast, saying the trade environment makes consumer spending too hard to predict. About 40% of its toys are still made in China. https://t.co/jJpq6z2Tmi
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$PLTR Palantir Q1 FY25:
• Customers +39% Y/Y to 769.
• Net dollar retention 124% (+13pp Y/Y).
• Revenue +39% Y/Y to $884M ($22M beat).
• Non-GAAP EPS $0.13 (in-line).
FY25 guidance:
• Revenue +36% Y/Y to ~$3.9B ($147M raise).
• Adj. operating margin 44% (+5pp Y/Y). https://t.co/u46vCAgoW1
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$PLTR Palantir Q1 FY25:
• Customers +39% Y/Y to 769.
• Net dollar retention 124% (+13pp Y/Y).
• Revenue +39% Y/Y to $884M ($22M beat).
• Non-GAAP EPS $0.13 (in-line).
FY25 guidance:
• Revenue +36% Y/Y to ~$3.9B ($147M raise).
• Adj. operating margin 44% (+5pp Y/Y). https://t.co/u46vCAgoW1
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Wall St Engine
TRUMP SIGNS ORDERS TO BOOST U.S. DRUG MANUFACTURING, LIMIT PATHOGEN RESEARCH
Trump signed a series of health-focused executive orders Monday, directing the FDA and EPA to speed up domestic drug facility approvals and crack down on foreign pharmaceutical plants. The orders aim to reduce U.S. reliance on overseas drug production. He also moved to cut federal funding for gain-of-function research, linking it to pandemic risks. A separate move on drug pricing is expected next week.
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TRUMP SIGNS ORDERS TO BOOST U.S. DRUG MANUFACTURING, LIMIT PATHOGEN RESEARCH
Trump signed a series of health-focused executive orders Monday, directing the FDA and EPA to speed up domestic drug facility approvals and crack down on foreign pharmaceutical plants. The orders aim to reduce U.S. reliance on overseas drug production. He also moved to cut federal funding for gain-of-function research, linking it to pandemic risks. A separate move on drug pricing is expected next week.
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
“There are 60,000 economists in the US, many of them employed full-time, trying to forecast recessions and interest rates. If they could do it successfully twice in a row, they’d all be millionaires by now. As far as I know, most of them are still gainfully employed, which ought to tell us something”
— Peter Lynch 🗣️
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“There are 60,000 economists in the US, many of them employed full-time, trying to forecast recessions and interest rates. If they could do it successfully twice in a row, they’d all be millionaires by now. As far as I know, most of them are still gainfully employed, which ought to tell us something”
— Peter Lynch 🗣️
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Wall St Engine
Today's Key Events (All EST) — 05/06/2025
08:30: US Trade Balance
08:55: US Redbook YoY
12:00: Trump Meets with Carney (Tentative)
13:00: US 10-Year Note Auction
Before Open 👇
B.O: Celsius Holdings $CELH
6:35: Ferrari N.V. $RACE
6:55: Constellation Energy Group, Inc. $CEG
7:00: Datadog, Inc. $DDOG
7:00: Zoetis Inc. $ZTS
7:00: DigitalOcean $DOCN
7:00: EVgo Inc. $EVGO
7:30: Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. $ADM
6:00: Leidos Holdings Inc. $LDOS
B.O:: Lemonade, Inc. $LMND
B.O: $DASH
After Hours 👇
16:00: Electronic Arts Inc. $EA
16:00: Redfin Corporation $RDFN
16:00: Revolve Group LLC $RVLV
16:05: Rivian Automotive, Inc. $RIVN
16:05: Arista Networks, Inc. $ANET
16:05: Upstart Holdings, Inc. $UPST
16:05: Lucid Group $LCID
16:05: Astera Labs $ALAB
16:05: Coupang, Inc. $CPNG
16:15: Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. $AMD
16:15: Energy Transfer LP $ET
16:15: Powell Industries Inc. $POWL
16:05: Tempus AI, Inc. $TEM
16:00: Wynn Resorts Ltd. $WYNN
After Close: Supermicro $SMCI
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Today's Key Events (All EST) — 05/06/2025
08:30: US Trade Balance
08:55: US Redbook YoY
12:00: Trump Meets with Carney (Tentative)
13:00: US 10-Year Note Auction
Before Open 👇
B.O: Celsius Holdings $CELH
6:35: Ferrari N.V. $RACE
6:55: Constellation Energy Group, Inc. $CEG
7:00: Datadog, Inc. $DDOG
7:00: Zoetis Inc. $ZTS
7:00: DigitalOcean $DOCN
7:00: EVgo Inc. $EVGO
7:30: Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. $ADM
6:00: Leidos Holdings Inc. $LDOS
B.O:: Lemonade, Inc. $LMND
B.O: $DASH
After Hours 👇
16:00: Electronic Arts Inc. $EA
16:00: Redfin Corporation $RDFN
16:00: Revolve Group LLC $RVLV
16:05: Rivian Automotive, Inc. $RIVN
16:05: Arista Networks, Inc. $ANET
16:05: Upstart Holdings, Inc. $UPST
16:05: Lucid Group $LCID
16:05: Astera Labs $ALAB
16:05: Coupang, Inc. $CPNG
16:15: Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. $AMD
16:15: Energy Transfer LP $ET
16:15: Powell Industries Inc. $POWL
16:05: Tempus AI, Inc. $TEM
16:00: Wynn Resorts Ltd. $WYNN
After Close: Supermicro $SMCI
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