⁠Wall St Engine
S&P 500 Closing Bell Heatmap (May 05, 2025)

$SPY -0.56% 🟥
$QQQ -0.59% 🟥
$DJI -0.24% 🟥
$IWM -0.74% 🟥

S&P 500 Opening Bell Heatmap (May 05, 2025)

$SPY -0.74% 🟥
$QQQ -0.81% 🟥
$DJI -0.49% 🟥
$IWM -0.89% 🟥 - Wall St Engine
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⁠Wall St Engine
$PLTR | Palantir Q1'25 Earnings Highlights:

🔹 Revenue: $884M (Est. $862.8M) 🟢; UP +39% YoY
🔹 Adj EPS: $0.13 (Est. $0.13) 🟡
🔹 Adj EBITDA: $397M
🔹 Rule of 40 Score: 83%

Q2 Guidance:
🔹 Revenue: $934M–$938M (Est. $898.5M) 🟢
🔹 Adjusted Income from Operations: $401M–$405M

FY25 Guidance:
🔹 Revenue: $3.89B–$3.90B (Est. $3.75B) 🟢
🔹 U.S. Commercial Revenue Guidance: >$1.178B; UP +68% YoY
🔹 Adjusted Income from Operations: $1.711B–$1.723B
🔹 Adjusted Free Cash Flow: $1.6B–$1.8B
🔹 GAAP Operating Income and Net Income expected in every quarter

Q1 Segment & Regional Performance:
🔹 U.S. Revenue: $628M; UP +55% YoY, +13% QoQ
🔹 U.S. Commercial Revenue: $255M; UP +71% YoY, +19% QoQ
🔹 U.S. Government Revenue: $373M; UP +45% YoY, +9% QoQ
🔹 Total Customer Count: UP +39% YoY, +8% QoQ
🔹 Closed 139 deals ≥ $1M; 51 ≥ $5M; 31 ≥ $10M

Contract Metrics:
🔹 U.S. Commercial Total Contract Value (TCV): $810M; UP +183% YoY
🔹 U.S. Commercial Remaining Deal Value (RDV): $2.32B; UP +127% YoY, +30% QoQ

Other Metrics:
🔹 Adjusted Income from Operations: $391M; Margin 44%
🔹 GAAP Income from Operations: $176M; Margin 20%
🔹 Adjusted Free Cash Flow: $370M; Margin 42%
🔹 Cash from Operations: $310M; Margin 35%
🔹 Net Income: $214M; Margin 24%
🔹 Cash, Equivalents & U.S. Treasuries: $5.4B

CEO Alexander Karp's Commentary:
🔸 "We are in the middle of a tectonic shift in adoption, especially in the U.S. where revenue soared 55% YoY, and U.S. commercial revenue hit a $1B+ run rate."
🔸 "We’re delivering the operating system for the modern enterprise in the AI era. Hence, we’re raising full-year revenue guidance to +36% and U.S. commercial growth to +68%."
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⁠Investing visuals
$PLTR Q1 Earnings 🚨

• Revenue $884M vs $862 Est.
• EPS $0.13 vs. $0.13 Est.

Q2 Outlook
• Sales $936M vs Est. $899M

Stock is down -3%
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⁠Wall St Engine
$HIMS & Hers Health Q1'25 Earnings Highlights:

🔹 Revenue: $586.0M (Est. $538.2M) 🟢; +111% YoY
🔹 Adj EPS: $0.20 (Est. $0.12) 🟢
🔹 Net Income: $49.5M (Est. $28.2M) 🟢; +346% YoY
🔹 Adj EBITDA: $91.1M (Est. $61.3M) 🟢; +182% YoY
🔹 Gross Margin: 73% (Est. 77%) 🔴

FY25 Guidance:
🔹 Revenue: $2.3B–$2.4B (Est. $2.32B) 🟢
🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: $295M–$335M (Est. $297M) 🟢

Q2 FY25 Guidance:
🔹 Revenue: $530M–$550M
🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: $65M–$75M
🔹 Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 12%–14%

2030 Long-Term Targets:
🔸 Revenue: At least $6.5B
🔸 Adjusted EBITDA: At least $1.3B

Q1 Subscriber & Platform Metrics:
🔹 Total Subscribers: 2.37M; UP +38% YoY
🔹 Monthly Online Revenue per Avg Subscriber: $84; UP +53% YoY

Q1 Revenue Breakdown:
🔹 Online Revenue: $576.4M; UP +115% YoY
🔹 Wholesale Revenue: $9.6M; DOWN -7% YoY

Others:
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $50.1M; UP +321% YoY
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $109.1M; UP +323% YoY

CEO Andrew Dudum's Commentary:
🔸 "We’re starting 2025 with incredible momentum. Millions are turning to us for personal, affordable care. We’re building a future-ready platform that enables cross-industry collaboration with pharma, diagnostics, and providers to serve tens of millions."

CFO Yemi Okupe's Commentary:
🔸 "Our subscriber base grew to 2.4M, with 1.4M using personalized solutions. Our 111% YoY revenue growth and rising engagement reaffirm our long-term growth across five levers: personalization, new specialties, enhanced care access, partnerships, and global expansion."
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⁠Investing visuals
$HIMS Q1 Earnings 🚨

• Revenue $586M vs $538 Est.
• EPS $0.20 vs. $0.23 Est.

FY25 Outlook
• Sales $2.35B vs Est. $2.32B

Stock is down -5%
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⁠Wall St Engine
$F | Ford Q1'25 Earnings Highlights:

🔹 Revenue: $40.7B (Est. $38.15B) 🟢; -5% YoY
🔹 Adj EPS: $0.14 (Est. -$0.02) 🟢
🔹 Net Income: $471M
🔹 Estimated FY25 adjusted EBIT impact from tariffs: -$1.5B
🔸 Suspends FY forecast due to tariff-related uncertainty

Ford Pro (Commercial Vehicles):
🔹 Revenue: $15.2B (Est. $14.63B) 🟢; DOWN -16% YoY
🔹 EBIT: $1.31B

Model e (EV & Software):
🔹 Revenue: $1.2B (Est. $1.22B) 🟡
🔹 EBIT Loss: -$849M (Est. -$1.4B) 🟢

Ford Blue (Gasoline & Hybrids):
🔹 Revenue: $21.0B (Est. $20.08B) 🟢
🔹 EBIT: $96M (Est. -$288.3M) 🟢

Tariff Impact & Guidance Update:
🔹 Estimated FY25 adjusted EBIT impact from tariffs: -$1.5B
🔹 Total tariff-related costs in FY25: ~$2.5B
🔹 $1B of tariff costs mitigated via logistics and import strategies
🔹 FY25 Guidance: Suspended due to tariff-related uncertainty

Strategic & Market Commentary:
🔸 Guidance Withdrawal: Ford suspended its 2025 guidance originally projected at $7.0B–$8.5B EBIT, citing unresolved impacts of Trump's 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and parts.
🔸 CFO Sherry House: “We are focused on managing what we control.”
🔸 Tariff Strategy: Ford has halted exports to China, restructured supply routes from Mexico to Canada to avoid U.S. duties, and is leveraging recently approved credits for domestic assembly.
🔸 EV Losses: Projected EV and software unit losses of up to $5.5B in FY25; total segment losses since 2023 exceed $10B.
🔸 Architecture Development: Discontinued next-gen EV architecture program (FNV4) due to escalating costs and delays.
🔸 Consumer Response: Early Q1 demand spike attributed to customer concerns over price hikes from tariff impact; Ford offered incentives to boost market share.
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⁠Wall St Engine
$MAT | Mattel Q1'25 Earnings Highlights:

🔹 Net Sales: $827M (Est. $786M) 🟢; +2% YoY
🔹 Adj EPS: -$0.03 (Est. -$0.10) 🟢
🔸 FY25 Guidance: PAUSED due to macroeconomic & tariff uncertainty
🔸No Tariff effect in Q1, but company is proactively mitigating expected future costs

Gross Billings by Category:
🔹 Dolls: $297M; UP +1% YoY as reported (+2% constant currency)
🔹 Infant, Toddler, & Preschool: $126M; DOWN -6% YoY (-5% constant currency)
🔹 Vehicles: $308M; UP +4% YoY (+6% constant currency)
🔹 Action Figures, Building Sets, Games & Other: $193M; UP +12% YoY (+14% constant currency)

Other Metrics:
🔹 Adj EBITDA: $57M; +$4M YoY
🔹 Adj Oper. Loss: -$16M
🔹 Adj Gross Margin: 49.6%; +130 bps YoY

Regional Performance:
🔹 North America: Net Sales UP +3% YoY
🔹 International: Net Sales UP +1% YoY (+5% in constant currency)

Cash Flow:
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $25M; DOWN -$11M YoY
🔹 Investing Cash Flow: -$31M; UP +$3M YoY
🔹 Financing & Other Cash Flow: -$138M; roughly flat YoY
🔹 Share Repurchases: $160M in Q1
🔹 Full-Year 2025 Buyback Target: $600M (reaffirmed)

Strategic & Tariff-Related Commentary:
🔸 Tariff Impact: No effect in Q1, but company is proactively mitigating expected future costs
🔸 Mitigation Actions:
— Reducing reliance on China-sourced product
— Optimizing product sourcing and mix
— Taking selective pricing action in U.S.
— Rebalancing promotional spend
🔸 Cost Savings Program: Raised 2025 savings target from $60M to $80M

CEO Ynon Kreiz's Commentary:
🔸 “This was a strong quarter for Mattel, with positive performance and continued operational excellence. We are navigating macro volatility with agility and discipline and remain focused on strengthening our competitive position.”
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⁠Investing visuals
$HIMS just guided to a 2030 target of at least $6.5B revenue and $1.3B in Adj. EBITDA (20% margin).

How: global expansion of their platform 🌎

$HIMS Q1 Earnings 🚨

• Revenue $586M vs $538 Est.
• EPS $0.20 vs. $0.23 Est.

FY25 Outlook
• Sales $2.35B vs Est. $2.32B

Stock is down -5% - Investing visuals
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⁠Wall St Engine
Nike $NKE is restructuring its leadership team, splitting Consumer, Product & Brand into three new areas: Consumer and Sport, Marketing, and Product Creation. Longtime exec Heidi O’Neill will retire, while Amy Montagne, Phil McCartney, and Nicole Graham step into expanded roles to support the company’s Win Now growth plan.
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⁠App Economy Insights
$HIMS Hims & Hers Q1 FY25:

• Subs +38% Y/Y to 2.4M.
• Revenue +111% to $586M ($47M beat).
• Adj. EBITDA margin 16% (+4pp Y/Y).
• EPS $0.20 ($0.08 in beat).

FY25 Outlook
• Rev. ~$2.35B (unchanged).
• Adj. EBITDA margin 13%-14% (1pp raise). https://t.co/Vp05gXxq3p
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⁠Wall St Engine
Mattel $MAT is planning U.S. price hikes & accelerating production shifts out of China as it grapples with tariffs. The company pulled its full-year forecast, saying the trade environment makes consumer spending too hard to predict. About 40% of its toys are still made in China. https://t.co/jJpq6z2Tmi
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⁠Wall St Engine
LUTNICK: DON'T SEE HOW TRUMP-CARNEY MEETING WORKS OUT PERFECT
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⁠Wall St Engine
U.S. COMMERCE SECRETARY LUTNICK SAYS FIRST TRADE DEAL GOT TO BE WITH A 'TOP TEN' ECONOMY
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