Wall St Engine
The U.S. is expected to announce new chip tariffs on May 7, with rates likely between 25% and 100%, according to Taiwan media. But only 10 companies have submitted comments to the Commerce Dept so far—sparking concern that the low response could be seen as a green light for the Trump administration to move ahead.
Source: Reuters, Economic Daily, BIS
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The U.S. is expected to announce new chip tariffs on May 7, with rates likely between 25% and 100%, according to Taiwan media. But only 10 companies have submitted comments to the Commerce Dept so far—sparking concern that the low response could be seen as a green light for the Trump administration to move ahead.
Source: Reuters, Economic Daily, BIS
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Wall St Engine
Goldman Sachs is holding firm on its bullish GOLD outlook, with a base case of $3,700/oz by year-end and $4,000 by mid-2026. If a recession hits, they expect ETF inflows could push prices up to $3,880 by year-end. In extreme tail scenarios—like rising concern over Fed subordination or shifts in U.S. reserve policy—they say gold could plausibly hit $4,500/oz by end-2025.
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Goldman Sachs is holding firm on its bullish GOLD outlook, with a base case of $3,700/oz by year-end and $4,000 by mid-2026. If a recession hits, they expect ETF inflows could push prices up to $3,880 by year-end. In extreme tail scenarios—like rising concern over Fed subordination or shifts in U.S. reserve policy—they say gold could plausibly hit $4,500/oz by end-2025.
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Wall St Engine
With the US dollar weakening broadly, the Taiwan dollar jumped as much as 5% on Monday, its biggest one-day gain since the 1980s. The rally is probably driven by exporters selling dollars due to market speculation that Taiwan may be letting the currency strengthen ahead of trade talks with the US.
The move has put pressure on Taiwan’s life insurers, who hold about $767 billion in foreign assets, mostly in US bonds, with only 65% hedged. Concern over losses prompted regulators to summon insurers for meetings to review their FX risk.
Taiwan’s central bank responded by saying it has intervened appropriately, denied any US request for the Taiwan dollar to rise, and warned market participants against making assumptions about policy direction.
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With the US dollar weakening broadly, the Taiwan dollar jumped as much as 5% on Monday, its biggest one-day gain since the 1980s. The rally is probably driven by exporters selling dollars due to market speculation that Taiwan may be letting the currency strengthen ahead of trade talks with the US.
The move has put pressure on Taiwan’s life insurers, who hold about $767 billion in foreign assets, mostly in US bonds, with only 65% hedged. Concern over losses prompted regulators to summon insurers for meetings to review their FX risk.
Taiwan’s central bank responded by saying it has intervened appropriately, denied any US request for the Taiwan dollar to rise, and warned market participants against making assumptions about policy direction.
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Wall St Engine
JPMorgan Upgrades $WEN to Overweight from Neutral, Lowers PT to $15 from $17; 'store economics stabilize and start to improve'
Analyst comments: "Wendy’s current share price provides a value-oriented opportunity, as we see significant upside to equity value with a 6–7% free cash flow yield (FY26–28), with the potential to rise to over 8.5% excluding funded franchise development. We are upgrading to Overweight (from Neutral) and setting a $15 December 2026 price target. This outlook is supported by de-risked near-term comparable sales expectations and medium- to long-term development opportunities, particularly in underpenetrated international markets. Additionally, we reassessed total capital intensity—both discretionary and non-discretionary—and see clear visibility to healthy free cash flow growth through FY28. An annualized dividend yield of approximately 5% and about 12% upside to the current share price suggest a mid- to high-teens annual total shareholder return. This is underpinned by relatively resilient earnings per share, driven by corporate actions focused on sustaining the largely franchised system (~95%)."
Analyst: John Ivankoe
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JPMorgan Upgrades $WEN to Overweight from Neutral, Lowers PT to $15 from $17; 'store economics stabilize and start to improve'
Analyst comments: "Wendy’s current share price provides a value-oriented opportunity, as we see significant upside to equity value with a 6–7% free cash flow yield (FY26–28), with the potential to rise to over 8.5% excluding funded franchise development. We are upgrading to Overweight (from Neutral) and setting a $15 December 2026 price target. This outlook is supported by de-risked near-term comparable sales expectations and medium- to long-term development opportunities, particularly in underpenetrated international markets. Additionally, we reassessed total capital intensity—both discretionary and non-discretionary—and see clear visibility to healthy free cash flow growth through FY28. An annualized dividend yield of approximately 5% and about 12% upside to the current share price suggest a mid- to high-teens annual total shareholder return. This is underpinned by relatively resilient earnings per share, driven by corporate actions focused on sustaining the largely franchised system (~95%)."
Analyst: John Ivankoe
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Wall St Engine
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Maintains Market Perform on $BRK-A, Raises PT to $735,000 from $730,000
Analyst comments: "We view Warren Buffett’s announced plan to step aside as CEO as the most important takeaway from Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meeting. Despite likely successor Greg Abel’s growing demonstration of competence, we expect this leadership change to pressure the shares on Monday. For 1Q25, BRK's operating EPS of $6,703 missed the Street estimate of $7,077 and our forecast of $7,478, due to underperformance in Primary and Reinsurance, Manufacturing, Railroads, Utilities, Energy, and Other Income, partially offset by strong results from GEICO and Service and Retailing. We are lowering our 2025E/2026E EPS to $30,865/$32,200 from $31,315/$32,605, reflecting assumptions of higher share counts and reduced earnings from Insurance and Non-Insurance segments. Our price target increases to $735,000 from $730,000, incorporating updated EPS estimates and peer valuations. We maintain our Market Perform rating."
Analyst: Meyer Shields
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Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Maintains Market Perform on $BRK-A, Raises PT to $735,000 from $730,000
Analyst comments: "We view Warren Buffett’s announced plan to step aside as CEO as the most important takeaway from Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meeting. Despite likely successor Greg Abel’s growing demonstration of competence, we expect this leadership change to pressure the shares on Monday. For 1Q25, BRK's operating EPS of $6,703 missed the Street estimate of $7,077 and our forecast of $7,478, due to underperformance in Primary and Reinsurance, Manufacturing, Railroads, Utilities, Energy, and Other Income, partially offset by strong results from GEICO and Service and Retailing. We are lowering our 2025E/2026E EPS to $30,865/$32,200 from $31,315/$32,605, reflecting assumptions of higher share counts and reduced earnings from Insurance and Non-Insurance segments. Our price target increases to $735,000 from $730,000, incorporating updated EPS estimates and peer valuations. We maintain our Market Perform rating."
Analyst: Meyer Shields
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Wall St Engine
Jefferies Reiterates Buy on $APP, PT at $460
Analyst comments: "We are positive on the stock ahead of Q1 results, as we believe the resilience of the gaming ad vertical and success with e-commerce advertisers should drive upside to Q1 revenue and Q2 revenue guidance. While we initially had concerns about weak Q2 guidance due to tariffs, results from Meta, Google, and Reddit give us confidence that the ad market remains healthy. The largest potential upside appears to be from new advertiser additions, which we believe are exceeding the expected ~100 per month. We also consistently see AppLovin ranking as a top 3 spend channel for most brands in the e-commerce pilot, suggesting it is capturing 10%+ of total budgets. If ad revenue grows 60%+ year-over-year in Q1 and the company guides to at least mid-single-digit revenue growth quarter-over-quarter, we would expect a favorable stock reaction—particularly with the stock down 40% since early February. Trading at 22x FY26 EBITDA, versus our 33% 4-year advertising EBITDA growth forecast, we view the stock as attractively valued."
Analyst: James Heaney
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Jefferies Reiterates Buy on $APP, PT at $460
Analyst comments: "We are positive on the stock ahead of Q1 results, as we believe the resilience of the gaming ad vertical and success with e-commerce advertisers should drive upside to Q1 revenue and Q2 revenue guidance. While we initially had concerns about weak Q2 guidance due to tariffs, results from Meta, Google, and Reddit give us confidence that the ad market remains healthy. The largest potential upside appears to be from new advertiser additions, which we believe are exceeding the expected ~100 per month. We also consistently see AppLovin ranking as a top 3 spend channel for most brands in the e-commerce pilot, suggesting it is capturing 10%+ of total budgets. If ad revenue grows 60%+ year-over-year in Q1 and the company guides to at least mid-single-digit revenue growth quarter-over-quarter, we would expect a favorable stock reaction—particularly with the stock down 40% since early February. Trading at 22x FY26 EBITDA, versus our 33% 4-year advertising EBITDA growth forecast, we view the stock as attractively valued."
Analyst: James Heaney
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Wall St Engine
Piper Sandler Analyzes Sensitivity of $NVDA Data Center Revenues to Capex Slowdown
Analyst comments: "We performed a sensitivity analysis on NVIDIA’s data center revenues to assess potential impacts from a slowdown in capital expenditures over the next year. In our worst-case scenario—assuming capex cuts across all NVDA data center end markets and no recovery in China—we estimate that approximately 6.45% of total data center revenue, or about $9.8 billion annually, could be at risk. It’s important to note that our published estimates already exclude China revenues, as we de-risked our model following the 8-K filing on April 15. The potential $9.8 billion revenue impact equates to an estimated $0.40 hit to EPS. Under this worst-case scenario, using a 25x trough multiple, we estimate a stock price of $76.25. In the best case, applying the same 25x multiple, our stock price estimate is $126.75. We reiterate OW."
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Piper Sandler Analyzes Sensitivity of $NVDA Data Center Revenues to Capex Slowdown
Analyst comments: "We performed a sensitivity analysis on NVIDIA’s data center revenues to assess potential impacts from a slowdown in capital expenditures over the next year. In our worst-case scenario—assuming capex cuts across all NVDA data center end markets and no recovery in China—we estimate that approximately 6.45% of total data center revenue, or about $9.8 billion annually, could be at risk. It’s important to note that our published estimates already exclude China revenues, as we de-risked our model following the 8-K filing on April 15. The potential $9.8 billion revenue impact equates to an estimated $0.40 hit to EPS. Under this worst-case scenario, using a 25x trough multiple, we estimate a stock price of $76.25. In the best case, applying the same 25x multiple, our stock price estimate is $126.75. We reiterate OW."
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Wall St Engine
EVERCORE: U.S. ECONOMY SHOWING SOME RESILIENCE AMID TRADE UNCERTAINTY
"Economic data this week pointed to a resilient U.S. economy despite volatile trade policy. While headline GDP contracted by -0.3% in 1Q, underlying demand held firm. April payroll employment exceeded expectations, and S&P 500 earnings are trending at a $257 annual rate for 1Q. EVRISI company surveys rose this week—driven by strength in retailers, restaurants, and homebuilders—helped by weather effects, holiday-related spending, and tariff-driven pre-buying. At 48.4, the surveys still signal ongoing economic struggles, but support the case for modest growth in 2Q.
Short-term retail sales should benefit from stronger vehicle sales and additional pre-buying, but trade policy uncertainty remains a headwind. Many retailers have warned of price hikes through the rest of the year, and a number of firms have withdrawn full-year guidance. Sentiment surveys for both consumers and businesses continue to weaken.
While labor market and consumer fundamentals remain intact, there are signs of softening: small business hiring plans are declining, the job openings-to-unemployed ratio has narrowed, and weekly unemployment claims rose to 241,000. Inflation pressures persist, with the core PCE deflator up 3.5% quarter-over-quarter annualized in 1Q, driven by goods inflation. Wage growth has slowed based on both the Employment Cost Index and Average Hourly Earnings, but further deceleration may be limited—especially if tariffs lift broader price pressures.
Internationally, the Eurozone posted unexpectedly strong 1Q GDP, led by Germany and Spain, though U.S. tariffs could weigh on future growth. In contrast, China’s manufacturing PMI fell back into contractionary territory."
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EVERCORE: U.S. ECONOMY SHOWING SOME RESILIENCE AMID TRADE UNCERTAINTY
"Economic data this week pointed to a resilient U.S. economy despite volatile trade policy. While headline GDP contracted by -0.3% in 1Q, underlying demand held firm. April payroll employment exceeded expectations, and S&P 500 earnings are trending at a $257 annual rate for 1Q. EVRISI company surveys rose this week—driven by strength in retailers, restaurants, and homebuilders—helped by weather effects, holiday-related spending, and tariff-driven pre-buying. At 48.4, the surveys still signal ongoing economic struggles, but support the case for modest growth in 2Q.
Short-term retail sales should benefit from stronger vehicle sales and additional pre-buying, but trade policy uncertainty remains a headwind. Many retailers have warned of price hikes through the rest of the year, and a number of firms have withdrawn full-year guidance. Sentiment surveys for both consumers and businesses continue to weaken.
While labor market and consumer fundamentals remain intact, there are signs of softening: small business hiring plans are declining, the job openings-to-unemployed ratio has narrowed, and weekly unemployment claims rose to 241,000. Inflation pressures persist, with the core PCE deflator up 3.5% quarter-over-quarter annualized in 1Q, driven by goods inflation. Wage growth has slowed based on both the Employment Cost Index and Average Hourly Earnings, but further deceleration may be limited—especially if tariffs lift broader price pressures.
Internationally, the Eurozone posted unexpectedly strong 1Q GDP, led by Germany and Spain, though U.S. tariffs could weigh on future growth. In contrast, China’s manufacturing PMI fell back into contractionary territory."
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iinvested
1Q'25 Heartland Opportunistic Value Equity on $DCI, $TDY, $JBHT
More fund letters here:
https://t.co/NM0463QOZj https://t.co/IblaQgj8Yb
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1Q'25 Heartland Opportunistic Value Equity on $DCI, $TDY, $JBHT
More fund letters here:
https://t.co/NM0463QOZj https://t.co/IblaQgj8Yb
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Wall St Engine
"AI Spending Is the Only Certainty in Silicon Valley Right Now" https://t.co/ogCIvl9WOB
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"AI Spending Is the Only Certainty in Silicon Valley Right Now" https://t.co/ogCIvl9WOB
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