Wall St Engine
Goldman Sachs Calls Out “Inflection Point” as It Maintains Buy on $TWLO, Raises PT to $145 from $130
Analyst comments: "We reiterate our Buy rating following solid first-quarter results, with revenue 3% above consensus, operating margin 170 basis points ahead, and free cash flow outperformance of 53%. The stock is indicated up 9% after hours on the back of a third consecutive quarter of accelerating, double-digit revenue growth (+12%), second-quarter revenue guidance 1.3% above consensus, and a slight increase to full-year 2025 growth guidance (now +8%, from 7.5% prior).
Importantly, we believe Twilio’s guidance strikes a solid balance—reflecting healthy near-term trends, with management indicating that customer engagement and usage remained strong through April, while also modestly de-risking second-half expectations in light of potential tariff-related headwinds.
Strong Q1 results reflect effective execution across Twilio’s key strategic pillars: independent software vendors (ISV), self-serve, cross-sell, and international expansion. Segment also showed healthier performance, delivering its best dollar-based net expansion rate (94%) in the last five quarters and returning to positive growth (+1%).
We view the Q2 guide (+9.5% growth) as a reasonable baseline, bolstered by recent go-to-market enablement on product cross-sell, ongoing AI momentum (including the addition of Sierra and a partnership with ElevenLabs for ConversationRelay), and solid upmarket performance—customers spending over $500K grew by 37%.
Overall, we believe Twilio’s results and guidance validate our thesis that the company is reaching an inflection point in both narrative and fundamentals, with solid upside to revenue and free cash flow in FY25 and beyond—still trading at a compelling 14x FY26 EV/FCF (pre-after-hours move)."
Analyst: Kash Rangan
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Goldman Sachs Calls Out “Inflection Point” as It Maintains Buy on $TWLO, Raises PT to $145 from $130
Analyst comments: "We reiterate our Buy rating following solid first-quarter results, with revenue 3% above consensus, operating margin 170 basis points ahead, and free cash flow outperformance of 53%. The stock is indicated up 9% after hours on the back of a third consecutive quarter of accelerating, double-digit revenue growth (+12%), second-quarter revenue guidance 1.3% above consensus, and a slight increase to full-year 2025 growth guidance (now +8%, from 7.5% prior).
Importantly, we believe Twilio’s guidance strikes a solid balance—reflecting healthy near-term trends, with management indicating that customer engagement and usage remained strong through April, while also modestly de-risking second-half expectations in light of potential tariff-related headwinds.
Strong Q1 results reflect effective execution across Twilio’s key strategic pillars: independent software vendors (ISV), self-serve, cross-sell, and international expansion. Segment also showed healthier performance, delivering its best dollar-based net expansion rate (94%) in the last five quarters and returning to positive growth (+1%).
We view the Q2 guide (+9.5% growth) as a reasonable baseline, bolstered by recent go-to-market enablement on product cross-sell, ongoing AI momentum (including the addition of Sierra and a partnership with ElevenLabs for ConversationRelay), and solid upmarket performance—customers spending over $500K grew by 37%.
Overall, we believe Twilio’s results and guidance validate our thesis that the company is reaching an inflection point in both narrative and fundamentals, with solid upside to revenue and free cash flow in FY25 and beyond—still trading at a compelling 14x FY26 EV/FCF (pre-after-hours move)."
Analyst: Kash Rangan
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Wall St Engine
Evercore ISI Cites “fundamentals at risk amid broader macro uncertainty” as It Maintains In Line on $ROKU, Lowers PT to $80 from $105
Analyst comments: "While Roku posted a slight Q1 revenue beat—indicating advertiser demand is holding up—gross profit and EBITDA came in below expectations, as risk-averse ad buyer behavior shifted budgets to the spot market and programmatic channels, resulting in higher supply chain costs for Roku.
For FY25, management lowered revenue guidance due to a more conservative outlook for Devices and reduced gross profit guidance based on a weaker outlook for Platform gross margins, though they maintained the EBITDA outlook due to a slightly lower operating expense forecast.
The company also reaffirmed its target of reaching 100 million households, but the path now relies more heavily on third-party devices, adding some risk to the narrative. Still, near-term supply trends appear strong—for example, The Roku Channel streaming hours were up 84% year-over-year in Q1.
While we've noted improved execution and consistency from Roku in recent quarters, we now view the fundamentals as potentially at risk amid broader macro uncertainty, though we don’t yet see the shares as meaningfully dislocated."
Analyst: Shweta Khajuria
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Evercore ISI Cites “fundamentals at risk amid broader macro uncertainty” as It Maintains In Line on $ROKU, Lowers PT to $80 from $105
Analyst comments: "While Roku posted a slight Q1 revenue beat—indicating advertiser demand is holding up—gross profit and EBITDA came in below expectations, as risk-averse ad buyer behavior shifted budgets to the spot market and programmatic channels, resulting in higher supply chain costs for Roku.
For FY25, management lowered revenue guidance due to a more conservative outlook for Devices and reduced gross profit guidance based on a weaker outlook for Platform gross margins, though they maintained the EBITDA outlook due to a slightly lower operating expense forecast.
The company also reaffirmed its target of reaching 100 million households, but the path now relies more heavily on third-party devices, adding some risk to the narrative. Still, near-term supply trends appear strong—for example, The Roku Channel streaming hours were up 84% year-over-year in Q1.
While we've noted improved execution and consistency from Roku in recent quarters, we now view the fundamentals as potentially at risk amid broader macro uncertainty, though we don’t yet see the shares as meaningfully dislocated."
Analyst: Shweta Khajuria
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Wall St Engine
RT @wallstengine: PAIN TRADE IS INDEX GOING HIGHER, LED BY MAG 7 - GS
"Given large MF underweights & HF l/s ratio across Mag 7 at all time lows (per gs pb chart below), the pain trade from here is index keeps going higher led by Mag 7 (if rally holds today will be S&P 500’s 8th consecutive close in the green...only happened 7 times since 2004)... Added greenshoots with corporates continuing to exit blackout & CTAs projected buyers across the board."
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RT @wallstengine: PAIN TRADE IS INDEX GOING HIGHER, LED BY MAG 7 - GS
"Given large MF underweights & HF l/s ratio across Mag 7 at all time lows (per gs pb chart below), the pain trade from here is index keeps going higher led by Mag 7 (if rally holds today will be S&P 500’s 8th consecutive close in the green...only happened 7 times since 2004)... Added greenshoots with corporates continuing to exit blackout & CTAs projected buyers across the board."
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Offshore
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Wall St Engine
TAKE-TWO DELAYS GTA VI TO MAY 2026
$TTWO confirms Grand Theft Auto VI will now launch May 26, 2026, missing the originally planned Fall 2025 window. Rockstar says the extra time will help realize its “creative vision.” Still expects record net bookings in FY26 & FY27. https://t.co/ZlnJx3VTal
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TAKE-TWO DELAYS GTA VI TO MAY 2026
$TTWO confirms Grand Theft Auto VI will now launch May 26, 2026, missing the originally planned Fall 2025 window. Rockstar says the extra time will help realize its “creative vision.” Still expects record net bookings in FY26 & FY27. https://t.co/ZlnJx3VTal
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Offshore
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Wall St Engine
Wild to think we’ll probably see robotaxis on the road before GTA VI drops. They really skipped two whole PlayStation generations at this point. On behalf of every gamer’s eyeballs: 😢 https://t.co/NJbW5bODSv
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Wild to think we’ll probably see robotaxis on the road before GTA VI drops. They really skipped two whole PlayStation generations at this point. On behalf of every gamer’s eyeballs: 😢 https://t.co/NJbW5bODSv
TAKE-TWO DELAYS GTA VI TO MAY 2026
$TTWO confirms Grand Theft Auto VI will now launch May 26, 2026, missing the originally planned Fall 2025 window. Rockstar says the extra time will help realize its “creative vision.” Still expects record net bookings in FY26 & FY27. https://t.co/ZlnJx3VTal tweet
Offshore
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Capital Employed
A fresh batch of Q1 fund letters just added including excellent letters from...
@DeepSailCapital @wmthomson22 @1MainCapital
https://t.co/lJZP1lUdTx https://t.co/gZ1qI8N2uk
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A fresh batch of Q1 fund letters just added including excellent letters from...
@DeepSailCapital @wmthomson22 @1MainCapital
https://t.co/lJZP1lUdTx https://t.co/gZ1qI8N2uk
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Wall St Engine
Jefferies Downgrades $AAPL to Underperform from Hold, Raises PT to $170.62 from $167.88; 'Mar Q In Line but Tariff Impact Likely to Worsen'
Analyst comments: "Apple reported 5%/5%/8% rev/NP/EPS growth for 2QFY25, in line with cons and above JEFe. Mgt indicated limited pull in for the Mar Q, but guided only LSD-MSD rev growth and US$900m tariff impact in the next Q. We est that implies 7m iPhone P/PM shipments from China, good enough for US demand in the Jun Q. Product GM is already under pressure, down 0.7ppt YoY. We believe tariff impact will expand over time to create more earnings downside. D/G to Underperform."
Analyst: Edison Lee
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Jefferies Downgrades $AAPL to Underperform from Hold, Raises PT to $170.62 from $167.88; 'Mar Q In Line but Tariff Impact Likely to Worsen'
Analyst comments: "Apple reported 5%/5%/8% rev/NP/EPS growth for 2QFY25, in line with cons and above JEFe. Mgt indicated limited pull in for the Mar Q, but guided only LSD-MSD rev growth and US$900m tariff impact in the next Q. We est that implies 7m iPhone P/PM shipments from China, good enough for US demand in the Jun Q. Product GM is already under pressure, down 0.7ppt YoY. We believe tariff impact will expand over time to create more earnings downside. D/G to Underperform."
Analyst: Edison Lee
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Wall St Engine
DA Davidson Cites “Strong Subscriber Growth & Resilient Trends” as It Maintains Buy on $DUOL, Raises PT to $470 from $410
Analyst comments: "Duolingo reported Q1’25 results that came in 3% ahead of our estimates on revenue and 11% ahead on adjusted EBITDA. First-quarter performance was driven by continued subscriber growth and strong uptake of higher-priced plans like Duolingo Max and the Family plan. Duolingo’s Q2 guidance of 40–45% year-over-year daily active user (DAU) growth came in ahead of consensus and our estimate at the midpoint, supported by ongoing product optimization and strength in resurrected users—42.5% DAU growth expected at the midpoint, even while lapping 59% year-over-year growth in Q2’24.
Despite uneasiness in the macro environment and reports of broader consumer softness, Duolingo indicated it has not seen any softness in the quarter, and that usage trends remain strong. During past periods of macro weakness, the company noted it tends to be well positioned due to: (1) its global presence, (2) its freemium model, which at minimum sustains user engagement, and (3) its low pricing relative to the high value provided. In prior instances of concern around consumer spending, Duolingo has not typically seen a corresponding drop-off in its performance. We reiterate our Buy rating."
Analyst: Wyatt Swanson
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DA Davidson Cites “Strong Subscriber Growth & Resilient Trends” as It Maintains Buy on $DUOL, Raises PT to $470 from $410
Analyst comments: "Duolingo reported Q1’25 results that came in 3% ahead of our estimates on revenue and 11% ahead on adjusted EBITDA. First-quarter performance was driven by continued subscriber growth and strong uptake of higher-priced plans like Duolingo Max and the Family plan. Duolingo’s Q2 guidance of 40–45% year-over-year daily active user (DAU) growth came in ahead of consensus and our estimate at the midpoint, supported by ongoing product optimization and strength in resurrected users—42.5% DAU growth expected at the midpoint, even while lapping 59% year-over-year growth in Q2’24.
Despite uneasiness in the macro environment and reports of broader consumer softness, Duolingo indicated it has not seen any softness in the quarter, and that usage trends remain strong. During past periods of macro weakness, the company noted it tends to be well positioned due to: (1) its global presence, (2) its freemium model, which at minimum sustains user engagement, and (3) its low pricing relative to the high value provided. In prior instances of concern around consumer spending, Duolingo has not typically seen a corresponding drop-off in its performance. We reiterate our Buy rating."
Analyst: Wyatt Swanson
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