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Forget earnings or macro. We’re now predicting how many times Elon tweets by May 2. We’ve officially hit peak capitalism, lol 😂 https://t.co/HTllYa5hn7
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Forget earnings or macro. We’re now predicting how many times Elon tweets by May 2. We’ve officially hit peak capitalism, lol 😂 https://t.co/HTllYa5hn7
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Wall St Engine
Today's Key Events (All EST) — 05/02/2025
08:30: US Unemployment Rate (Est. 4.2%)
08:30: US Nonfarm Payrolls (Est. 138K)
08:30: US Average Earnings YoY
10:00: US Factory Orders MoM
10:00: US Durable Goods Revised
Before Open 👇
02:00: Shell $SHEL
05:00: Magna International $MGA
06:00: Cigna $CI
06:00: DuPont $DD
06:15: Chevron $CVX
06:30: Exxon Mobil $XOM
06:30: Eaton $ETN
06:30: Apollo Global Management $APO
06:30: Westlake Chemical $WLK
06:30: Cinemark $CNK
06:30: Westlake Partners $WLKP
06:55: Brookfield Renewable $BEP
07:00: Wendy's $WEN
07:00: T. Rowe Price $TROW
07:30: Cboe Global Markets $CBOE
08:00: Piper Sandler $PIPR
08:30: Franklin Resources $BEN
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Today's Key Events (All EST) — 05/02/2025
08:30: US Unemployment Rate (Est. 4.2%)
08:30: US Nonfarm Payrolls (Est. 138K)
08:30: US Average Earnings YoY
10:00: US Factory Orders MoM
10:00: US Durable Goods Revised
Before Open 👇
02:00: Shell $SHEL
05:00: Magna International $MGA
06:00: Cigna $CI
06:00: DuPont $DD
06:15: Chevron $CVX
06:30: Exxon Mobil $XOM
06:30: Eaton $ETN
06:30: Apollo Global Management $APO
06:30: Westlake Chemical $WLK
06:30: Cinemark $CNK
06:30: Westlake Partners $WLKP
06:55: Brookfield Renewable $BEP
07:00: Wendy's $WEN
07:00: T. Rowe Price $TROW
07:30: Cboe Global Markets $CBOE
08:00: Piper Sandler $PIPR
08:30: Franklin Resources $BEN
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Wall St Engine
TRUMP ENDS DE MINIMIS EXEMPTION FOR CHINA SHIPMENTS
Starting today, small-value packages from China and Hong Kong—like those from Shein and Temu—will no longer enter the U.S. duty-free. Trump called the loophole a “big scam,” and it’s now closed. Those parcels will face a 120% tariff or a flat fee starting at $100 and rising to $200 by June. The move hits low-cost imports hard, with Shein already hiking prices on top-selling items by 50% or more. $PDD Temu says its U.S. pricing won’t change—for now—as it shifts sales to local sellers.
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TRUMP ENDS DE MINIMIS EXEMPTION FOR CHINA SHIPMENTS
Starting today, small-value packages from China and Hong Kong—like those from Shein and Temu—will no longer enter the U.S. duty-free. Trump called the loophole a “big scam,” and it’s now closed. Those parcels will face a 120% tariff or a flat fee starting at $100 and rising to $200 by June. The move hits low-cost imports hard, with Shein already hiking prices on top-selling items by 50% or more. $PDD Temu says its U.S. pricing won’t change—for now—as it shifts sales to local sellers.
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CHINA EVALUATING US TRADE TALKS
China’s MOFCOM said the U.S. 🇺🇸 “has recently taken the initiative to convey information to China 🇨🇳 through relevant parties,” seeking to reopen tariff talks. China is “currently conducting an assessment” and warns, “If the U.S. does not correct its erroneous unilateral tariff measures… it has no sincerity.” China added, “If we fight, we fight to the end. If we talk, the door is open.”
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CHINA EVALUATING US TRADE TALKS
China’s MOFCOM said the U.S. 🇺🇸 “has recently taken the initiative to convey information to China 🇨🇳 through relevant parties,” seeking to reopen tariff talks. China is “currently conducting an assessment” and warns, “If the U.S. does not correct its erroneous unilateral tariff measures… it has no sincerity.” China added, “If we fight, we fight to the end. If we talk, the door is open.”
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Wall St Engine
China’s Ministry of Industry is telling automakers to ramp domestic chip use to 25% this year, up from just 15% in late 2024 — a tough ask, given reliance on U.S. and European suppliers. Beijing quietly exempted key American auto chips from tariffs last month after lobbying by Chinese carmakers, underscoring the country’s continued dependence despite a big localization push. One state-owned automaker put it bluntly: “We need to move faster to replace American parts from the system.”
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China’s Ministry of Industry is telling automakers to ramp domestic chip use to 25% this year, up from just 15% in late 2024 — a tough ask, given reliance on U.S. and European suppliers. Beijing quietly exempted key American auto chips from tariffs last month after lobbying by Chinese carmakers, underscoring the country’s continued dependence despite a big localization push. One state-owned automaker put it bluntly: “We need to move faster to replace American parts from the system.”
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Wall St Engine
DOJ SUES AETNA, $HUM, $ELV OVER MEDICARE KICKBACKS - WSJ
Federal prosecutors say top Medicare insurers paid hundreds of millions in kickbacks to brokers to win sign-ups and avoid disabled enrollees seen as costly. From 2016–2021, brokers steered clients to the highest bidders, regardless of plan quality, per the DOJ complaint.
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DOJ SUES AETNA, $HUM, $ELV OVER MEDICARE KICKBACKS - WSJ
Federal prosecutors say top Medicare insurers paid hundreds of millions in kickbacks to brokers to win sign-ups and avoid disabled enrollees seen as costly. From 2016–2021, brokers steered clients to the highest bidders, regardless of plan quality, per the DOJ complaint.
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Wall St Engine
HSBC LOWERS PT ON $AMZN TO $240 FROM $280 - BUY
Analyst comments: "No question, we could well do without the tariff uncertainty. But fundamentally, we continue to see Amazon as exceptionally well placed and exposed to all the right structural themes. While our ‘harvesting the fruits of past investment’ theme has taken a tariff hit, we don’t see signs of a fading moat. In terms of value, we continue to argue that AWS matters above all else (AWS is still approximately 70% of our DCF-based sum-of-the-parts valuation for Amazon). In terms of valuation, multiples have clearly gone down, in part due to a lack of consensus earnings revisions—something that should change post results. That said, even after de-risking our estimates and valuation assumptions, we still see implied upside of approximately 26% to our revised $240 price target (from $280). We reiterate our Buy rating."
Analyst: Christopher Johnen
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HSBC LOWERS PT ON $AMZN TO $240 FROM $280 - BUY
Analyst comments: "No question, we could well do without the tariff uncertainty. But fundamentally, we continue to see Amazon as exceptionally well placed and exposed to all the right structural themes. While our ‘harvesting the fruits of past investment’ theme has taken a tariff hit, we don’t see signs of a fading moat. In terms of value, we continue to argue that AWS matters above all else (AWS is still approximately 70% of our DCF-based sum-of-the-parts valuation for Amazon). In terms of valuation, multiples have clearly gone down, in part due to a lack of consensus earnings revisions—something that should change post results. That said, even after de-risking our estimates and valuation assumptions, we still see implied upside of approximately 26% to our revised $240 price target (from $280). We reiterate our Buy rating."
Analyst: Christopher Johnen
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Wall St Engine
STIFEL LOWERS $AMZN PT TO $245 FROM $248 - BUY
Analyst comments: "First-quarter headline results were better, but AWS was marginally below expectations, and North America margins were also light on the surface. However, stripping out the impact from inventory pull-forwards ahead of tariffs equates to margins that would have beaten Street estimates—something we believe carried into the second quarter. Overall, the tariff commentary reinforced our view that Amazon is relatively well positioned, with a mix of essential items (approximately one-third of units shipped, and Amazon is one of the largest grocery stores even excluding Whole Foods/Fresh) and everything in between from Amazon Haul (Temu-esque) up to higher-end products (such as Saks Fifth Avenue). AWS growth was marginally light, but the forward commentary remains positive, with capacity being consumed the moment it becomes available, and backlog growth accelerating by approximately 600 basis points. Overall, we remain positive on Amazon, and only slightly revise our forward estimates."
Analyst: Mark Kelly
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STIFEL LOWERS $AMZN PT TO $245 FROM $248 - BUY
Analyst comments: "First-quarter headline results were better, but AWS was marginally below expectations, and North America margins were also light on the surface. However, stripping out the impact from inventory pull-forwards ahead of tariffs equates to margins that would have beaten Street estimates—something we believe carried into the second quarter. Overall, the tariff commentary reinforced our view that Amazon is relatively well positioned, with a mix of essential items (approximately one-third of units shipped, and Amazon is one of the largest grocery stores even excluding Whole Foods/Fresh) and everything in between from Amazon Haul (Temu-esque) up to higher-end products (such as Saks Fifth Avenue). AWS growth was marginally light, but the forward commentary remains positive, with capacity being consumed the moment it becomes available, and backlog growth accelerating by approximately 600 basis points. Overall, we remain positive on Amazon, and only slightly revise our forward estimates."
Analyst: Mark Kelly
HSBC LOWERS PT ON $AMZN TO $240 FROM $280 - BUY
Analyst comments: "No question, we could well do without the tariff uncertainty. But fundamentally, we continue to see Amazon as exceptionally well placed and exposed to all the right structural themes. While our ‘harvesting the fruits of past investment’ theme has taken a tariff hit, we don’t see signs of a fading moat. In terms of value, we continue to argue that AWS matters above all else (AWS is still approximately 70% of our DCF-based sum-of-the-parts valuation for Amazon). In terms of valuation, multiples have clearly gone down, in part due to a lack of consensus earnings revisions—something that should change post results. That said, even after de-risking our estimates and valuation assumptions, we still see implied upside of approximately 26% to our revised $240 price target (from $280). We reiterate our Buy rating."
Analyst: Christopher Johnen tweet
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Wall St Engine
JPMorgan Maintains OW on $XYZ, Lowers PT to $60 from $90
Analyst comments: "Block posted a rare top-line miss (gross profit +9% vs. 11% guide) led by surprise weakness at Cash App—a bit of a role reversal as Square modestly outperformed. The fact that XYZ missed first-quarter guidance with just five weeks left in the quarter naturally raises questions (e.g., quality of consumer base, total addressable market penetration, competition), but was explained by management as weaker inflows and spending from tax refunds that paid out after guidance was issued. This caused Cash App gross profit growth to decelerate 6 percentage points sequentially to 10% (vs. our 12% estimate).
Guidance was cut to reflect a weaker macro environment beyond what was observed in April, but still implies acceleration—though not as steep as before (now 9% in 1Q to 12% for FY25 vs. prior 11% in 1Q to mid-teens for FY25). The good news is that Square narrowed the growth gap to peers (gross payment volume now just 1 percentage point from Clover, the narrowest in two years), suggesting early returns from recent investments and offering hope that Cash App’s expanded network strategy can do the same in a less competitive market than Square.
The challenge for investors is that much of the implied acceleration in Cash App relies on lending to a customer base that just negatively surprised on spending. We are lowering our estimates to be slightly below guidance on gross profit, but in-line on profit for FY25 and Rule of 40 for FY26. We remain Overweight, with the stock trading at approximately 20x trailing twelve-month free cash flow—reasonable in our view considering growth potential. We noted last quarter that the execution bar was high; now it could be as high as ever, with management calling 1Q a bottom and asserting that drivers are in place for acceleration. We're cautiously optimistic, recognizing that the margin for error is low in a tough macro backdrop. We look forward to digging deeper on strategy with Block Head Jack Dorsey at our TMC Conference on May 13."
Analyst: Tien-tsin Huang
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JPMorgan Maintains OW on $XYZ, Lowers PT to $60 from $90
Analyst comments: "Block posted a rare top-line miss (gross profit +9% vs. 11% guide) led by surprise weakness at Cash App—a bit of a role reversal as Square modestly outperformed. The fact that XYZ missed first-quarter guidance with just five weeks left in the quarter naturally raises questions (e.g., quality of consumer base, total addressable market penetration, competition), but was explained by management as weaker inflows and spending from tax refunds that paid out after guidance was issued. This caused Cash App gross profit growth to decelerate 6 percentage points sequentially to 10% (vs. our 12% estimate).
Guidance was cut to reflect a weaker macro environment beyond what was observed in April, but still implies acceleration—though not as steep as before (now 9% in 1Q to 12% for FY25 vs. prior 11% in 1Q to mid-teens for FY25). The good news is that Square narrowed the growth gap to peers (gross payment volume now just 1 percentage point from Clover, the narrowest in two years), suggesting early returns from recent investments and offering hope that Cash App’s expanded network strategy can do the same in a less competitive market than Square.
The challenge for investors is that much of the implied acceleration in Cash App relies on lending to a customer base that just negatively surprised on spending. We are lowering our estimates to be slightly below guidance on gross profit, but in-line on profit for FY25 and Rule of 40 for FY26. We remain Overweight, with the stock trading at approximately 20x trailing twelve-month free cash flow—reasonable in our view considering growth potential. We noted last quarter that the execution bar was high; now it could be as high as ever, with management calling 1Q a bottom and asserting that drivers are in place for acceleration. We're cautiously optimistic, recognizing that the margin for error is low in a tough macro backdrop. We look forward to digging deeper on strategy with Block Head Jack Dorsey at our TMC Conference on May 13."
Analyst: Tien-tsin Huang
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