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The Kobeissi Letter
US recession probabilities are rising:
1-year recession odds priced by the S&P 500 earnings yield and the BBB-rated corporate bond spread have jumped to 60%, the highest since 2022.
Over the last few weeks, the probability of a downturn has TRIPLED.
In the past, every time this metric surpassed 80%, the US economy was in a recession.
This comes as the BBB-rated corporate bond spread has surged 40 percentage points over the last 6 weeks, to 1.42%, near the highest since November 2023.
By comparison, the spread’s peak was 1.98% during the 2023 Banking Crisis.
Is the US economy already in a recession?
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US recession probabilities are rising:
1-year recession odds priced by the S&P 500 earnings yield and the BBB-rated corporate bond spread have jumped to 60%, the highest since 2022.
Over the last few weeks, the probability of a downturn has TRIPLED.
In the past, every time this metric surpassed 80%, the US economy was in a recession.
This comes as the BBB-rated corporate bond spread has surged 40 percentage points over the last 6 weeks, to 1.42%, near the highest since November 2023.
By comparison, the spread’s peak was 1.98% during the 2023 Banking Crisis.
Is the US economy already in a recession?
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Finding Compounders
The Five Competitive Forces that Determine Industry Profitability by @MichaelEPorter
Source: Competitive Advantage by @MichaelEPorter https://t.co/sM83MHa7xH
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The Five Competitive Forces that Determine Industry Profitability by @MichaelEPorter
Source: Competitive Advantage by @MichaelEPorter https://t.co/sM83MHa7xH
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The Kobeissi Letter
Japanese investors are selling US Treasuries:
Japanese private financial institutions sold $17.5 billion of long-dated foreign bonds in the week ending April 4th.
Subsequently, they dumped another $3.6 billion over the next 7 days.
This marks the largest 2-week sell-off since the data began in 2005.
That said, Japan’s finance ministry does not break down which countries’ bonds were sold.
However, Japanese market strategists say a substantial share of selling was in either US Treasuries or Mortgage-Backed Securities.
Keep watching the bond market.
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Japanese investors are selling US Treasuries:
Japanese private financial institutions sold $17.5 billion of long-dated foreign bonds in the week ending April 4th.
Subsequently, they dumped another $3.6 billion over the next 7 days.
This marks the largest 2-week sell-off since the data began in 2005.
That said, Japan’s finance ministry does not break down which countries’ bonds were sold.
However, Japanese market strategists say a substantial share of selling was in either US Treasuries or Mortgage-Backed Securities.
Keep watching the bond market.
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Offshore
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Finding Compounders
“He equated buying stocks with buying a truckload of pigs”
How Mr Womack Made a Killing by John Train https://t.co/y8I1rXZCGz
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“He equated buying stocks with buying a truckload of pigs”
How Mr Womack Made a Killing by John Train https://t.co/y8I1rXZCGz
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App Economy Insights
📊 This Week in Visuals:
🧴 Procter & Gamble $PG
☁️ SAP $SAP
💊 AbbVie $ABBV
🌐 IBM $IBM
🥤 PepsiCo $PEP
🧑💻 Intel $INTC and more!
https://t.co/GpfrZ0sNnH
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📊 This Week in Visuals:
🧴 Procter & Gamble $PG
☁️ SAP $SAP
💊 AbbVie $ABBV
🌐 IBM $IBM
🥤 PepsiCo $PEP
🧑💻 Intel $INTC and more!
https://t.co/GpfrZ0sNnH
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Offshore
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Finding Compounders
Interesting
An AutoZone write up from 2005
Stock moved $82.34 to $3609
I wonder if they held ? https://t.co/EOD2CoU0aY
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Interesting
An AutoZone write up from 2005
Stock moved $82.34 to $3609
I wonder if they held ? https://t.co/EOD2CoU0aY
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The Kobeissi Letter
Investors are rushing into Bitcoin:
US-listed Bitcoin ETFs recorded $936 million in net inflows on Tuesday, the third-highest this year.
In just 3 days, investors poured into Bitcoin ETFs a whopping $1.4 billion.
Since the April 7 low, Bitcoin prices have surged over 25% and are trading above $94,000.
For the first time all year, it appears that Bitcoin has decoupled from risky assets and is now seeing large safe haven-driven demand.
Is Bitcoin heading to $100,000+?
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Investors are rushing into Bitcoin:
US-listed Bitcoin ETFs recorded $936 million in net inflows on Tuesday, the third-highest this year.
In just 3 days, investors poured into Bitcoin ETFs a whopping $1.4 billion.
Since the April 7 low, Bitcoin prices have surged over 25% and are trading above $94,000.
For the first time all year, it appears that Bitcoin has decoupled from risky assets and is now seeing large safe haven-driven demand.
Is Bitcoin heading to $100,000+?
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App Economy Insights
What are you watching this week?
• Monday: $CDNS, $DPZ
• Tuesday: $V, $SOFI, $SBUX, $SNAP, $KO, $BKNG, $PFE, $SPOT, $PYPL, $UPS, $RCL
• Wednesday: $MSFT, $META, $HOOD, $QCOM.
• Thursday: $AMZN, $AAPL, $LLY, $RBLX, $ABNB, $MCD, $RDDT, $TEAM, $MA
All visualized in our PRO coverage next Saturday.
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What are you watching this week?
• Monday: $CDNS, $DPZ
• Tuesday: $V, $SOFI, $SBUX, $SNAP, $KO, $BKNG, $PFE, $SPOT, $PYPL, $UPS, $RCL
• Wednesday: $MSFT, $META, $HOOD, $QCOM.
• Thursday: $AMZN, $AAPL, $LLY, $RBLX, $ABNB, $MCD, $RDDT, $TEAM, $MA
All visualized in our PRO coverage next Saturday.
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