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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: President Trump says he would sign a ban on congressional stock trading.
However, prediction markets only see a 7% chance of this ban going through in 2025.
Trump has signaled support for this ban multiple times now.
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BREAKING: President Trump says he would sign a ban on congressional stock trading.
However, prediction markets only see a 7% chance of this ban going through in 2025.
Trump has signaled support for this ban multiple times now.
BREAKING: Trump just said that he would sign a ban on congressional stock trading
Only a 7% chance it actually happens this year https://t.co/5M4tK8OOYD tweet
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Finding Compounders
Monitor what Insiders are doing!
Over the past two years: $13.6B+ in insider sales.
Insider purchases? Zero.
That’s a red flag for me. If management won’t bet on their own company, why should I?
As Joel Greenblatt put it: “If you’re going to buy a stock, it’s nice to know that the people running the business are buying too.”
Some won’t agree with this filter — and that’s okay.
The stock might do well. It might even compound.
But I’m not trying to catch every winner.
I’m just trying to avoid the big losers.
Just filtering for downside protection.
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Monitor what Insiders are doing!
Over the past two years: $13.6B+ in insider sales.
Insider purchases? Zero.
That’s a red flag for me. If management won’t bet on their own company, why should I?
As Joel Greenblatt put it: “If you’re going to buy a stock, it’s nice to know that the people running the business are buying too.”
Some won’t agree with this filter — and that’s okay.
The stock might do well. It might even compound.
But I’m not trying to catch every winner.
I’m just trying to avoid the big losers.
Just filtering for downside protection.
tweet
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The Kobeissi Letter
The US housing market is expected to slow down:
US home prices increased 4.5% year-over-year in Q1 2025, the smallest increase since Q3 2023.
Moody’s projects home prices will increase +3.6% and +2.5% in Q2 and Q3, respectively.
In Q4, home prices are expected to increase by just +1.0%, the lowest growth rate in at least 6 years.
This would bring full year 2025 growth to 1.8%, the lowest since 2011.
The long overdue housing cool-down may finally be coming soon.
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The US housing market is expected to slow down:
US home prices increased 4.5% year-over-year in Q1 2025, the smallest increase since Q3 2023.
Moody’s projects home prices will increase +3.6% and +2.5% in Q2 and Q3, respectively.
In Q4, home prices are expected to increase by just +1.0%, the lowest growth rate in at least 6 years.
This would bring full year 2025 growth to 1.8%, the lowest since 2011.
The long overdue housing cool-down may finally be coming soon.
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The Kobeissi Letter
It's incredible how far retail investors have come:
One of the positive outcomes of the pandemic is it introduced a ton of retail investors to the stock market.
When everything was closed in 2020, the stock market was open.
In the wake of major pullbacks, including this year's drop, retail has been consistently buying the dip.
Bear markets are the best opportunity to acquire long-term equity investments, and retail is taking advantage of it.
We are forever bullish of retail investors.
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It's incredible how far retail investors have come:
One of the positive outcomes of the pandemic is it introduced a ton of retail investors to the stock market.
When everything was closed in 2020, the stock market was open.
In the wake of major pullbacks, including this year's drop, retail has been consistently buying the dip.
Bear markets are the best opportunity to acquire long-term equity investments, and retail is taking advantage of it.
We are forever bullish of retail investors.
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Investing visuals
Massive earnings week ahead! Notable names:
• Monday: $DPZ, $NXP
• Tuesday: $PYPL, $SOFI, $V, $SPOT
• Wednesday: $MSFT, $META, $HOOD, $QCOM
• Thursday: $AMZN, $AAPL, $M, $ABNB, $TEAM
• Friday: $XOM
Which are you most excited for? https://t.co/i6IsAHARYH
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Massive earnings week ahead! Notable names:
• Monday: $DPZ, $NXP
• Tuesday: $PYPL, $SOFI, $V, $SPOT
• Wednesday: $MSFT, $META, $HOOD, $QCOM
• Thursday: $AMZN, $AAPL, $M, $ABNB, $TEAM
• Friday: $XOM
Which are you most excited for? https://t.co/i6IsAHARYH
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The All-In Podcast
Tim Dillon: Elite institutions like Harvard have been "captured in a quasi-religious cult of insanity"
@TimJDillon:
"Harvard, are we selling that to China? I'm for that."
@DavidSacks:
"China's too smart to buy Harvard."
@chamath:
"With 20+ years of discrimination, what Harvard did was made it fashionable for other schools to discriminate."
"It doesn't just touch the universities, it starts to touch the high schools and the middle schools."
"Where we live, we had some morons at the Board of Education decide to take away AP calculus and AP math because it made people feel bad."
"It's absolutely ridiculous."
Tim Dillon:
"The word is embarrassment."
"It is impossible to look at higher education in America right now and not be embarrassed."
"These should be the shining example of, as Chamath was saying, institutions that prepare people for the real world, but what they really are, they've all been captured in this quasi-religious cult of insanity."
"I think if these institutions are gonna follow that path, they're gonna have to live and die on their own."
"They're not gonna be able to be taxpayer subsidized and funded."
@friedberg:
"I don't know why an institution that has $53B of capital and is making probably $4-5B per year shouldn't pay taxes on that income."
"The majority of the capital is not being used to educate students."
"The majority of the capital is being used to reinvest to make new capital."
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Tim Dillon: Elite institutions like Harvard have been "captured in a quasi-religious cult of insanity"
@TimJDillon:
"Harvard, are we selling that to China? I'm for that."
@DavidSacks:
"China's too smart to buy Harvard."
@chamath:
"With 20+ years of discrimination, what Harvard did was made it fashionable for other schools to discriminate."
"It doesn't just touch the universities, it starts to touch the high schools and the middle schools."
"Where we live, we had some morons at the Board of Education decide to take away AP calculus and AP math because it made people feel bad."
"It's absolutely ridiculous."
Tim Dillon:
"The word is embarrassment."
"It is impossible to look at higher education in America right now and not be embarrassed."
"These should be the shining example of, as Chamath was saying, institutions that prepare people for the real world, but what they really are, they've all been captured in this quasi-religious cult of insanity."
"I think if these institutions are gonna follow that path, they're gonna have to live and die on their own."
"They're not gonna be able to be taxpayer subsidized and funded."
@friedberg:
"I don't know why an institution that has $53B of capital and is making probably $4-5B per year shouldn't pay taxes on that income."
"The majority of the capital is not being used to educate students."
"The majority of the capital is being used to reinvest to make new capital."
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soken
this aligator looks like my crypto chart
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this aligator looks like my crypto chart
Cuando tienes más de 40 y duermes en una cama que no es la tuya https://t.co/jK4ZuLqDF4 tweet
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soken
RT @AltcoinGordon: Lock in now and this will be your POV later
Got it? https://t.co/9zlKURiNMM
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RT @AltcoinGordon: Lock in now and this will be your POV later
Got it? https://t.co/9zlKURiNMM
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