𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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⁠The Kobeissi Letter
Keep watching the U.S. Dollar:

As the S&P 500 rises +5% in 2 days on “tariff de-escalation” headlines, the U.S. Dollar Index, $DXY, is up a mere 0.2% today.

The U.S. Dollar is just about the only asset not buying these headlines today.

Furthermore, the U.S. Dollar has been a key leading indicator of trade war sentiment.

It’s almost as though the U.S. Dollar thinks U.S. trade headlines have lost credibility.

Something is off.
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⁠The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Vietnam says it has started trade talks with the United States.

This is at least the third time it’s been reported that trade talks have “started” between the U.S. and Vietnam.

Days ago, it was reported that the U.S. and Vietnam were close to a deal.
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⁠Investing visuals
$GOOGL reports earnings tomorrow. Everything you need to know about this business 👇 https://t.co/J3yCYiCRlA
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⁠The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: President Trump is considering cutting tariffs on China, likely down to between 50% and 65%, to ease tensions, per WSJ.

No final decision has been made, and options remain open, WSJ notes.
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⁠The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: President Trump decided not to fire Fed Chair Powell after Bessent and Lutnick raised concerns, per WSJ.

White House lawyers were reportedly studying legal options for firing Fed Chair Powell.
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⁠The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi tells Iranian counterpart that the US "abuse" of tariffs has lost popularity and isolated itself from the international community, per a Chinese Ministry statement.
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⁠The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The odds of Jerome Powell no longer being Fed Chair in 2025 fall to 12% after Trump says he does not plan to fire him, per @Kalshi. https://t.co/XaNtdLubn4
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⁠The Kobeissi Letter
Gold is extending losses to -4% on the day as a reduction of U.S. tariffs on China appears to be imminent.

Tariffs are expected to come down from 145% to 50%-65%, per WSJ. https://t.co/ImL64ubtTU
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⁠Investing visuals
Which stock popped the most for you today? 🟢 https://t.co/8LcBtDehap
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: To our knowledge, Babylon Capital® is the only investment management firm that has:

1. Made the call to buy amid peak fear

2. See a top 5 S&P 500 one-day gain since 1945, within 5 days of that call
___

March 20, 2020 | March 24, 2020 +9.38%

April 5, 2025 | April 9 2025 +9.52% https://t.co/T74vsWLjxO
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⁠The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The White House lowering tariffs on China is reportedly contingent on talks with Chinese officials.

Any reductions would reportedly need to be "in conjunction" with China, not unilateral.
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⁠The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: US Treasury Secretary Bessent says a trade deal with China may take 2-3 years to reach, declines to comment on WSJ report.

The S&P 500 is paring gains, now down 60 points from its high of the day.
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