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Quiver Quantitative
We've received Q1 fundraising data for 56 members of Congress so far.
Here's who's raised the most:
🔴 Rep. Eli Crane: $1M (99% from individual donors)
🔴 Rep. Mike Lawler: $927K (54%)
🔴 Rep. Don Bacon: $619K (43%)
🔴 Sen. Susan Collins: $570K (76%)
Should get the rest soon. https://t.co/DkX1jS1mO9
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We've received Q1 fundraising data for 56 members of Congress so far.
Here's who's raised the most:
🔴 Rep. Eli Crane: $1M (99% from individual donors)
🔴 Rep. Mike Lawler: $927K (54%)
🔴 Rep. Don Bacon: $619K (43%)
🔴 Sen. Susan Collins: $570K (76%)
Should get the rest soon. https://t.co/DkX1jS1mO9
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Offshore
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The Kobeissi Letter
US consumers are exhausted:
Real income growth expectations of US consumers over the next 5 years are at record lows.
Americans in the bottom-third income group now see record low ~18% chance of higher inflation-adjusted incomes in 5 years,
By comparison, 5 years ago this percentage was twice as large.
Middle-third income consumers' probability of higher incomes is also at a record low of ~25%, falling from ~45% in 2020.
In other words, consumers see inflation outpacing wage growth for the foreseeable future.
Consumers are sick of persistent inflation.
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US consumers are exhausted:
Real income growth expectations of US consumers over the next 5 years are at record lows.
Americans in the bottom-third income group now see record low ~18% chance of higher inflation-adjusted incomes in 5 years,
By comparison, 5 years ago this percentage was twice as large.
Middle-third income consumers' probability of higher incomes is also at a record low of ~25%, falling from ~45% in 2020.
In other words, consumers see inflation outpacing wage growth for the foreseeable future.
Consumers are sick of persistent inflation.
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Offshore
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App Economy Insights
Trump’s steep tariffs on Chinese imports are shaking up the markets.
🤝 This post is sponsored by @HelloRyse
Investors are moving into private markets for stability.
One smart home disruptor is leading the charge, with 10+ patents, an Amazon partnership, and $10M+ in revenue. Now sold in 127 Best Buy locations.
This tech startup is following the acquisition blueprint of Ring ($1.2B) and Nest ($3.2B).
With 200% YoY growth and support from investors like Daymond John, it’s a rare chance to invest before their next big move.
Our readers can earn up to 25% in bonus shares: https://t.co/OGJbNmtbE8
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Trump’s steep tariffs on Chinese imports are shaking up the markets.
🤝 This post is sponsored by @HelloRyse
Investors are moving into private markets for stability.
One smart home disruptor is leading the charge, with 10+ patents, an Amazon partnership, and $10M+ in revenue. Now sold in 127 Best Buy locations.
This tech startup is following the acquisition blueprint of Ring ($1.2B) and Nest ($3.2B).
With 200% YoY growth and support from investors like Daymond John, it’s a rare chance to invest before their next big move.
Our readers can earn up to 25% in bonus shares: https://t.co/OGJbNmtbE8
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Finding Compounders
Warren Buffett
Don’t Let Emotions Guide Your Investment Decisions https://t.co/gPqTC989Dr
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Warren Buffett
Don’t Let Emotions Guide Your Investment Decisions https://t.co/gPqTC989Dr
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Offshore
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The All-In Podcast
Chamath and Larry Summers Debate the Market Reaction to Trump's Tariffs
@LHSummers:
"If this is such a terrific thing, why do markets think it's so terrible for the American economy?"
"Maybe the market's just completely wrong ... but the job of markets is to look forward."
"It's to look passed the immediate."
"It's to see what the long run consequences are going to be."
"And markets are making a pretty devastatingly negative judgment on this step."
@chamath:
" Larry, that's not true."
" So let's just establish a couple facts about 'the markets.'"
"Number one, there are two markets and they behave totally differently, and sometimes inversely to each other."
"There's the stock market and there's the bond market."
1) Stocks: mean reversion
"With respect to the stock market, what they are debating, and you're right Larry, is what is the effective long-term rate of return a dollar needs to generate in order to pay me back that dollar?"
"That is what the fundamental stock market does."
"And what we've seen for many years with trade imbalances, trade deficits, and close-to-zero interest rates, of which more of that happened under Democrats than Republicans, we have allowed the stock market to inflate past historical averages."
" What we've actually seen happen in the last week is what most people would call mean reversion."
"The stock market is still way above where it was last year, two years ago, three years ago."
"What has happened is that the forward multiples have compressed. So that's number one. That's a fact."
2) Bonds: it's possible a major trade blew up
"And then with respect to bonds, what we are seeing now is there are two very complicated issues."
"In the last two days, we saw one part of the bond market totally get out of whack."
"And what we know is that the yields changed materially in a very acute way, which is atypical of how the bond market typically digests a philosophical change in approach to policy."
" What we heard in the last 24 hours is a lot of this move may have been attributed to an enormous levered bet on US treasuries by a Japanese hedge fund."
" It will take three, and four, and five, and six weeks for us to really know."
3) Private credit: something to watch closely
" Separately, what we do know, though, where the structural complexity of the market — and this is where, Larry, I agree with you — is acute and important to observe is in the credit markets for private companies."
"And that is where you have to pay a lot of attention."
tweet
Chamath and Larry Summers Debate the Market Reaction to Trump's Tariffs
@LHSummers:
"If this is such a terrific thing, why do markets think it's so terrible for the American economy?"
"Maybe the market's just completely wrong ... but the job of markets is to look forward."
"It's to look passed the immediate."
"It's to see what the long run consequences are going to be."
"And markets are making a pretty devastatingly negative judgment on this step."
@chamath:
" Larry, that's not true."
" So let's just establish a couple facts about 'the markets.'"
"Number one, there are two markets and they behave totally differently, and sometimes inversely to each other."
"There's the stock market and there's the bond market."
1) Stocks: mean reversion
"With respect to the stock market, what they are debating, and you're right Larry, is what is the effective long-term rate of return a dollar needs to generate in order to pay me back that dollar?"
"That is what the fundamental stock market does."
"And what we've seen for many years with trade imbalances, trade deficits, and close-to-zero interest rates, of which more of that happened under Democrats than Republicans, we have allowed the stock market to inflate past historical averages."
" What we've actually seen happen in the last week is what most people would call mean reversion."
"The stock market is still way above where it was last year, two years ago, three years ago."
"What has happened is that the forward multiples have compressed. So that's number one. That's a fact."
2) Bonds: it's possible a major trade blew up
"And then with respect to bonds, what we are seeing now is there are two very complicated issues."
"In the last two days, we saw one part of the bond market totally get out of whack."
"And what we know is that the yields changed materially in a very acute way, which is atypical of how the bond market typically digests a philosophical change in approach to policy."
" What we heard in the last 24 hours is a lot of this move may have been attributed to an enormous levered bet on US treasuries by a Japanese hedge fund."
" It will take three, and four, and five, and six weeks for us to really know."
3) Private credit: something to watch closely
" Separately, what we do know, though, where the structural complexity of the market — and this is where, Larry, I agree with you — is acute and important to observe is in the credit markets for private companies."
"And that is where you have to pay a lot of attention."
tweet
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
10 High-Quality Stocks on Sale 💵
1. MercadoLibre $MELI | NTM P/E 43x 🤝
2. MSCI Inc $MSCI | NTM P/E 32x 🌐
3. Mastercard $MA | NTM P/E 32x 💳
4. Amazon $AMZN | NTM P/E 29x 📦
5. S&P Global $SPGI | NTM P/E 27x 📈
6. Synopsys $SNPS | NTM P/E 27x 👾
7. ASML Holding $ASML | NTM P/E 25x ☀️
8. Google $GOOG | NTM P/E 18x ☁️
9. Lam Research $LRCX | NTM P/E 18x 🖨️
10. Novo Nordisk $NVO | NTM P/E 17x 🧬
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10 High-Quality Stocks on Sale 💵
1. MercadoLibre $MELI | NTM P/E 43x 🤝
2. MSCI Inc $MSCI | NTM P/E 32x 🌐
3. Mastercard $MA | NTM P/E 32x 💳
4. Amazon $AMZN | NTM P/E 29x 📦
5. S&P Global $SPGI | NTM P/E 27x 📈
6. Synopsys $SNPS | NTM P/E 27x 👾
7. ASML Holding $ASML | NTM P/E 25x ☀️
8. Google $GOOG | NTM P/E 18x ☁️
9. Lam Research $LRCX | NTM P/E 18x 🖨️
10. Novo Nordisk $NVO | NTM P/E 17x 🧬
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Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
Wow.
In May, we noticed a US politician buying stock in a German arms manufacturer.
The stock has now risen 195% since we posted this report.
195%
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Wow.
In May, we noticed a US politician buying stock in a German arms manufacturer.
The stock has now risen 195% since we posted this report.
195%
BREAKING: Representative Susie Lee just bought stock in the German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall, $RNMBY.
She is the first U.S. politician we have seen buy Rheinmetall stock.
Lee sits on the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Military Construction. https://t.co/hiNwf8AsRK tweet
Offshore
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The Kobeissi Letter
Volatility in US Treasuries has been truly historic:
The 10-year note yield surged over 50 basis points in one week, marking the largest weekly increase since 2001.
Over the last 40 years, there have been just a few other occurrences when the 10-year note saw such a significant rise.
The 30-year Treasury yield has experienced daily swings of up to 32 basis points, the largest since 2020.
Keep watching the bond market.
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Volatility in US Treasuries has been truly historic:
The 10-year note yield surged over 50 basis points in one week, marking the largest weekly increase since 2001.
Over the last 40 years, there have been just a few other occurrences when the 10-year note saw such a significant rise.
The 30-year Treasury yield has experienced daily swings of up to 32 basis points, the largest since 2020.
Keep watching the bond market.
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