Offshore
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Investing visuals
The speed at which $NVDA scaled its data center revenue still blows my mind. https://t.co/NrIfNYzCHI
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The speed at which $NVDA scaled its data center revenue still blows my mind. https://t.co/NrIfNYzCHI
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The Kobeissi Letter
RT @TKL_Adam: The weekend began with new “tariff exemptions” on electronics and semiconductors.
This quickly transitioned to temporary exemptions before more tariffs.
Which then became a reclassification of tariffs, from “reciprocal tariffs” to “sectoral tariffs.”
The result will be a near-term rally in risky assets.
However, long-term uncertainty has only increased, with even more ambiguity around tariff policy.
We see more volatility beyond the immediate horizon.
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RT @TKL_Adam: The weekend began with new “tariff exemptions” on electronics and semiconductors.
This quickly transitioned to temporary exemptions before more tariffs.
Which then became a reclassification of tariffs, from “reciprocal tariffs” to “sectoral tariffs.”
The result will be a near-term rally in risky assets.
However, long-term uncertainty has only increased, with even more ambiguity around tariff policy.
We see more volatility beyond the immediate horizon.
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Offshore
Video
The All-In Podcast
David Sacks: The Decades-Long Bipartisan Consensus on Free Trade was a Mistake
@DavidSacks on E223:
"We've had a bipartisan consensus in Washington for decades that unfettered free trade is a good thing."
"No matter how big our trade deficits got, no matter how rich and powerful China got, no matter how unfair the trade practices got, no matter how many millions of our jobs in factories got exported overseas, this has been the bipartisan consensus in Washington."
"And Larry, you're right that it started before the Clinton administration, and the George W. Bush administration definitely accelerated it."
"But there has absolutely been a bipartisan consensus in Washington that this sort of unfettered free trade policy was good for the country."
"Now, how do you change that? You can nitpick this and you can make all the process objections you want, but Donald Trump has changed the conversation."
"He was one of the few people, one the few public figures in America who was right about this."
"That throwing open our markets to these foreign products without thinking about the consequences was a mistake."
"I think most people today would say he was right about this."
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David Sacks: The Decades-Long Bipartisan Consensus on Free Trade was a Mistake
@DavidSacks on E223:
"We've had a bipartisan consensus in Washington for decades that unfettered free trade is a good thing."
"No matter how big our trade deficits got, no matter how rich and powerful China got, no matter how unfair the trade practices got, no matter how many millions of our jobs in factories got exported overseas, this has been the bipartisan consensus in Washington."
"And Larry, you're right that it started before the Clinton administration, and the George W. Bush administration definitely accelerated it."
"But there has absolutely been a bipartisan consensus in Washington that this sort of unfettered free trade policy was good for the country."
"Now, how do you change that? You can nitpick this and you can make all the process objections you want, but Donald Trump has changed the conversation."
"He was one of the few people, one the few public figures in America who was right about this."
"That throwing open our markets to these foreign products without thinking about the consequences was a mistake."
"I think most people today would say he was right about this."
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Offshore
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Finding Compounders
Remember David Sokol?
He used to be at Berkshire, he was actually the possible successor to Warren Buffett , until he resigned after a scandal.
His conduct was said to have “ violated Berkshire’s business ethics and insider trading policies.”
This was after it was found out that he had purchased shares of Lubrizol worth $10 million, shortly before recommending it to Buffett and he failed to disclose this conflict of interests when pushing for the deal.
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Remember David Sokol?
He used to be at Berkshire, he was actually the possible successor to Warren Buffett , until he resigned after a scandal.
His conduct was said to have “ violated Berkshire’s business ethics and insider trading policies.”
This was after it was found out that he had purchased shares of Lubrizol worth $10 million, shortly before recommending it to Buffett and he failed to disclose this conflict of interests when pushing for the deal.
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The Kobeissi Letter
Reports are emerging of division at the White House.
President Trump’s “tariff exemptions” quickly transitioned to tariff reclassifications after Lutnick’s comments this morning.
Does President Trump come out and reaffirm tariff exemptions are here to stay, but risk appearing weak and internally divided?
If not, the equity market’s rally will be suppressed and yields will likely hold up.
After all, let’s not forget who everyone is still at the mercy of:
The bond market.
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Reports are emerging of division at the White House.
President Trump’s “tariff exemptions” quickly transitioned to tariff reclassifications after Lutnick’s comments this morning.
Does President Trump come out and reaffirm tariff exemptions are here to stay, but risk appearing weak and internally divided?
If not, the equity market’s rally will be suppressed and yields will likely hold up.
After all, let’s not forget who everyone is still at the mercy of:
The bond market.
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The Kobeissi Letter
We think the “tariff exemptions” announced this weekend were originally intended to be temporary.
The goal was to bring treasury yields back down before resuming the trade war.
This is why Lutnick said tariffs on electronics will “resume in a month or two” this morning, without a predetermined timeline.
The intention was likely to allow volatility and yields to subside before ramping up pressure again.
However, Lutnick said the quiet part out loud too soon.
The exemptions, which were being perceived as almost an end to the trade war by investors, have therefore lost much of their intended effects.
As a result, reports of division within the White House are emerging, supporting this thesis.
Bonds will likely still rally along with stocks, but uncertainty has only grown.
The bond market is king.
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We think the “tariff exemptions” announced this weekend were originally intended to be temporary.
The goal was to bring treasury yields back down before resuming the trade war.
This is why Lutnick said tariffs on electronics will “resume in a month or two” this morning, without a predetermined timeline.
The intention was likely to allow volatility and yields to subside before ramping up pressure again.
However, Lutnick said the quiet part out loud too soon.
The exemptions, which were being perceived as almost an end to the trade war by investors, have therefore lost much of their intended effects.
As a result, reports of division within the White House are emerging, supporting this thesis.
Bonds will likely still rally along with stocks, but uncertainty has only grown.
The bond market is king.
Reports are emerging of division at the White House.
President Trump’s “tariff exemptions” quickly transitioned to tariff reclassifications after Lutnick’s comments this morning.
Does President Trump come out and reaffirm tariff exemptions are here to stay, but risk appearing weak and internally divided?
If not, the equity market’s rally will be suppressed and yields will likely hold up.
After all, let’s not forget who everyone is still at the mercy of:
The bond market. tweet
twitter.com
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The Kobeissi Letter
You can't make this up:
Saturday began with "tariff exemptions" on electronics and semiconductors being announced.
This then became refunds on all tariffs in these categories dated back to April 5th.
Which then become electronic and semiconductor tariffs that were delayed "for a month or two."
Which then became, tariffs that were simply being recategorized.
Which is now tariffs that are "just moving to a different tariff bucket," per President Trump.
President Trump just said "the fake news knows this, but they refuse to report it."
What is happening here?
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You can't make this up:
Saturday began with "tariff exemptions" on electronics and semiconductors being announced.
This then became refunds on all tariffs in these categories dated back to April 5th.
Which then become electronic and semiconductor tariffs that were delayed "for a month or two."
Which then became, tariffs that were simply being recategorized.
Which is now tariffs that are "just moving to a different tariff bucket," per President Trump.
President Trump just said "the fake news knows this, but they refuse to report it."
What is happening here?
tweet
Offshore
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The Kobeissi Letter
Honest question:
How did we go from tariffs being "refunded" back to April 5th to "there was no tariff exception announced on Friday" within 48 hours? https://t.co/ypkzuVYsWV
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Honest question:
How did we go from tariffs being "refunded" back to April 5th to "there was no tariff exception announced on Friday" within 48 hours? https://t.co/ypkzuVYsWV
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The Kobeissi Letter
This has to be the worst possible outcome for the bond market.
Uncertainty just hit its highest level since March 2020 and will continue to rise.
If the plan was to announce a near-term "tariff exemption" to calm bond markets, it has failed miserably.
Buckle up for a wild week.
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This has to be the worst possible outcome for the bond market.
Uncertainty just hit its highest level since March 2020 and will continue to rise.
If the plan was to announce a near-term "tariff exemption" to calm bond markets, it has failed miserably.
Buckle up for a wild week.
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The Kobeissi Letter
President Trump on "tariff exceptions" announced on Friday:
First, he says "there was no tariff exception announced on Friday."
Then, he says they will be subject to the "existing 20% fentanyl tariffs."
Then, he says they are "just moving to a different tariff bucket."
However, it's still very unclear:
Does this mean electronics and semiconductors are subject to 20% tariffs but not 145% reciprocal tariffs?
Maybe this can still be viewed as bullish if so?
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President Trump on "tariff exceptions" announced on Friday:
First, he says "there was no tariff exception announced on Friday."
Then, he says they will be subject to the "existing 20% fentanyl tariffs."
Then, he says they are "just moving to a different tariff bucket."
However, it's still very unclear:
Does this mean electronics and semiconductors are subject to 20% tariffs but not 145% reciprocal tariffs?
Maybe this can still be viewed as bullish if so?
tweet
Offshore
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The Kobeissi Letter
Here's exactly what happened with tariff exemptions:
The White House published a note titled "Clarification of Exceptions Under Executive Order 14257" on April 11th.
Certain goods were apparently NEVER supposed to be subject to the "reciprocal tariffs" announced on April 2nd.
Most media outlets thought the April 11th "clarification" posted by the White House was a new list of exemptions.
But rather, these goods were never actually intended to be subject to 145% tariffs.
This also explains why "refunds" will be dated back to April 5th on these goods, essentially classifying this as an enforcement error, not a policy reversal.
On top of this, Trump is saying the "fake news" is refusing to report the truth.
But, it appears that the news and most investors, along with customs enforcement themselves, never truly understood what was being tariffed to begin with.
This was a complete misunderstanding by almost everyone involved.
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Here's exactly what happened with tariff exemptions:
The White House published a note titled "Clarification of Exceptions Under Executive Order 14257" on April 11th.
Certain goods were apparently NEVER supposed to be subject to the "reciprocal tariffs" announced on April 2nd.
Most media outlets thought the April 11th "clarification" posted by the White House was a new list of exemptions.
But rather, these goods were never actually intended to be subject to 145% tariffs.
This also explains why "refunds" will be dated back to April 5th on these goods, essentially classifying this as an enforcement error, not a policy reversal.
On top of this, Trump is saying the "fake news" is refusing to report the truth.
But, it appears that the news and most investors, along with customs enforcement themselves, never truly understood what was being tariffed to begin with.
This was a complete misunderstanding by almost everyone involved.
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