The Kobeissi Letter
Key Events This Week:
1. Markets React To "Tariff Exclusions" - Monday
2. March Retail Sales data - Wednesday
3. Fed Chair Powell Speaks - Wednesday
4. March Housing Starts data - Thursday
5. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index - Thursday
6. ~10% of S&P 500 Companies Report Earnings
We have another busy week ahead of us.
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Key Events This Week:
1. Markets React To "Tariff Exclusions" - Monday
2. March Retail Sales data - Wednesday
3. Fed Chair Powell Speaks - Wednesday
4. March Housing Starts data - Thursday
5. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index - Thursday
6. ~10% of S&P 500 Companies Report Earnings
We have another busy week ahead of us.
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Offshore
Photo
Finding Compounders
Warren Buffett explains how Berkshire selects their stocks. https://t.co/WpyJMW2rkP
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Warren Buffett explains how Berkshire selects their stocks. https://t.co/WpyJMW2rkP
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Offshore
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The Kobeissi Letter
Bitcoin is selling off on the Lutnick headlines this morning.
This is a great weekend-gauge of risk appetite.
Equity futures will still open higher, but not as high as they would’ve without the Lutnick comments. https://t.co/odgFwvwg4m
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Bitcoin is selling off on the Lutnick headlines this morning.
This is a great weekend-gauge of risk appetite.
Equity futures will still open higher, but not as high as they would’ve without the Lutnick comments. https://t.co/odgFwvwg4m
We have now gone from:
“No exemptions” on tariffs, to refunds on tariffs going back to April 5th, to exemptions not being “permanent.”
The result?
Markets are incredibly confused ahead of the futures open. tweet
Offshore
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Investing visuals
The speed at which $NVDA scaled its data center revenue still blows my mind. https://t.co/NrIfNYzCHI
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The speed at which $NVDA scaled its data center revenue still blows my mind. https://t.co/NrIfNYzCHI
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The Kobeissi Letter
RT @TKL_Adam: The weekend began with new “tariff exemptions” on electronics and semiconductors.
This quickly transitioned to temporary exemptions before more tariffs.
Which then became a reclassification of tariffs, from “reciprocal tariffs” to “sectoral tariffs.”
The result will be a near-term rally in risky assets.
However, long-term uncertainty has only increased, with even more ambiguity around tariff policy.
We see more volatility beyond the immediate horizon.
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RT @TKL_Adam: The weekend began with new “tariff exemptions” on electronics and semiconductors.
This quickly transitioned to temporary exemptions before more tariffs.
Which then became a reclassification of tariffs, from “reciprocal tariffs” to “sectoral tariffs.”
The result will be a near-term rally in risky assets.
However, long-term uncertainty has only increased, with even more ambiguity around tariff policy.
We see more volatility beyond the immediate horizon.
tweet
Offshore
Video
The All-In Podcast
David Sacks: The Decades-Long Bipartisan Consensus on Free Trade was a Mistake
@DavidSacks on E223:
"We've had a bipartisan consensus in Washington for decades that unfettered free trade is a good thing."
"No matter how big our trade deficits got, no matter how rich and powerful China got, no matter how unfair the trade practices got, no matter how many millions of our jobs in factories got exported overseas, this has been the bipartisan consensus in Washington."
"And Larry, you're right that it started before the Clinton administration, and the George W. Bush administration definitely accelerated it."
"But there has absolutely been a bipartisan consensus in Washington that this sort of unfettered free trade policy was good for the country."
"Now, how do you change that? You can nitpick this and you can make all the process objections you want, but Donald Trump has changed the conversation."
"He was one of the few people, one the few public figures in America who was right about this."
"That throwing open our markets to these foreign products without thinking about the consequences was a mistake."
"I think most people today would say he was right about this."
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David Sacks: The Decades-Long Bipartisan Consensus on Free Trade was a Mistake
@DavidSacks on E223:
"We've had a bipartisan consensus in Washington for decades that unfettered free trade is a good thing."
"No matter how big our trade deficits got, no matter how rich and powerful China got, no matter how unfair the trade practices got, no matter how many millions of our jobs in factories got exported overseas, this has been the bipartisan consensus in Washington."
"And Larry, you're right that it started before the Clinton administration, and the George W. Bush administration definitely accelerated it."
"But there has absolutely been a bipartisan consensus in Washington that this sort of unfettered free trade policy was good for the country."
"Now, how do you change that? You can nitpick this and you can make all the process objections you want, but Donald Trump has changed the conversation."
"He was one of the few people, one the few public figures in America who was right about this."
"That throwing open our markets to these foreign products without thinking about the consequences was a mistake."
"I think most people today would say he was right about this."
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Finding Compounders
Remember David Sokol?
He used to be at Berkshire, he was actually the possible successor to Warren Buffett , until he resigned after a scandal.
His conduct was said to have “ violated Berkshire’s business ethics and insider trading policies.”
This was after it was found out that he had purchased shares of Lubrizol worth $10 million, shortly before recommending it to Buffett and he failed to disclose this conflict of interests when pushing for the deal.
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Remember David Sokol?
He used to be at Berkshire, he was actually the possible successor to Warren Buffett , until he resigned after a scandal.
His conduct was said to have “ violated Berkshire’s business ethics and insider trading policies.”
This was after it was found out that he had purchased shares of Lubrizol worth $10 million, shortly before recommending it to Buffett and he failed to disclose this conflict of interests when pushing for the deal.
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The Kobeissi Letter
Reports are emerging of division at the White House.
President Trump’s “tariff exemptions” quickly transitioned to tariff reclassifications after Lutnick’s comments this morning.
Does President Trump come out and reaffirm tariff exemptions are here to stay, but risk appearing weak and internally divided?
If not, the equity market’s rally will be suppressed and yields will likely hold up.
After all, let’s not forget who everyone is still at the mercy of:
The bond market.
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Reports are emerging of division at the White House.
President Trump’s “tariff exemptions” quickly transitioned to tariff reclassifications after Lutnick’s comments this morning.
Does President Trump come out and reaffirm tariff exemptions are here to stay, but risk appearing weak and internally divided?
If not, the equity market’s rally will be suppressed and yields will likely hold up.
After all, let’s not forget who everyone is still at the mercy of:
The bond market.
tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
We think the “tariff exemptions” announced this weekend were originally intended to be temporary.
The goal was to bring treasury yields back down before resuming the trade war.
This is why Lutnick said tariffs on electronics will “resume in a month or two” this morning, without a predetermined timeline.
The intention was likely to allow volatility and yields to subside before ramping up pressure again.
However, Lutnick said the quiet part out loud too soon.
The exemptions, which were being perceived as almost an end to the trade war by investors, have therefore lost much of their intended effects.
As a result, reports of division within the White House are emerging, supporting this thesis.
Bonds will likely still rally along with stocks, but uncertainty has only grown.
The bond market is king.
tweet
We think the “tariff exemptions” announced this weekend were originally intended to be temporary.
The goal was to bring treasury yields back down before resuming the trade war.
This is why Lutnick said tariffs on electronics will “resume in a month or two” this morning, without a predetermined timeline.
The intention was likely to allow volatility and yields to subside before ramping up pressure again.
However, Lutnick said the quiet part out loud too soon.
The exemptions, which were being perceived as almost an end to the trade war by investors, have therefore lost much of their intended effects.
As a result, reports of division within the White House are emerging, supporting this thesis.
Bonds will likely still rally along with stocks, but uncertainty has only grown.
The bond market is king.
Reports are emerging of division at the White House.
President Trump’s “tariff exemptions” quickly transitioned to tariff reclassifications after Lutnick’s comments this morning.
Does President Trump come out and reaffirm tariff exemptions are here to stay, but risk appearing weak and internally divided?
If not, the equity market’s rally will be suppressed and yields will likely hold up.
After all, let’s not forget who everyone is still at the mercy of:
The bond market. tweet
twitter.com
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