⁠Quiver Quantitative
NEW: Just released improvements to the Quiver app.

You can get notifications on new:

- Congressional stock trades
- Government contracts
- Corporate lobbying
- Insider Trades

Alerts you on new data before we even get the chance to post on it.

Out now on both iOS and Android. https://t.co/3Mz0ggAFx7
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⁠Finding Compounders
Warren Buffett on inflation proof businesses https://t.co/Y5O41koHAl
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AkhenOsiris
Who will be the eventual loser of the current FAFO standoff?
- Trump
- Xi
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AkhenOsiris
😂

Brutal community note - SouthernValue
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AkhenOsiris
RT @lokoyacap: This new Chinese semi reg is crazy bullish $tsm. All of their lagging (>N5) edge capacity, which like everyone else has been running a UR in the 70s at best for several qtrs now, is now worth its weight in gold. Expect the US analog guys to Hoover it up ASAP since this is a near instantaneous way to solve for shipping into China via an already qualified tier 1 foundry that has capacity.
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AkhenOsiris
RT @JerryCap: "GPUs falling under these categories that are exported from Mexico to the US, for example, qualify for duty-free treatment, allowing them to bypass the 25% tariff that would otherwise apply to non-originating goods. They are essentially treated like avocados planted and grown in Mexico and exported to the US or Canada. This provides a significant advantage for US companies importing GPUs from Mexico or Canada to the US." @SemiAnalysis_
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⁠The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: US leveraged-loan funds saw a record $6.5 billion net outflow in the week ended Wednesday.

This surpassed the previous record of $3.6 billion seen in the December 2018 sell-off.

Furthermore, investors pulled out a whopping $2.5 billion from the two largest ETFs tied to US leveraged loans this week.

The Invesco Senior Loan ETF, $BKLN, the biggest fund tracking corporate floating-rate debt, recorded a $1.4 billion outflow in 4 trading days, the largest since its 2011 inception.

All while US high-yield bond funds posted $9.6 billion in withdrawals, the biggest in nearly 20 years.

The flight to safety is real.
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⁠Hidden Value Gems
A little surprised to see Nebraskan beef in Tenerife.

Spain could have made a good deal with the US if it wasn’t part of EU 😀 https://t.co/5O2EmkxgPD
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⁠The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: President Trump says the “bond market had a little moment, but I solved that quickly.”

“The bond market is going good,” he adds.
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⁠The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: President Trump says the bond market did not drive his decision to delay reciprocal tariffs by 90-days.
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⁠The All-In Podcast
🚨 An All-Time Episode: The Great Tariff Debate 🤝

featuring:

-- @Jason

-- @chamath

-- @DavidSacks

-- @LHSummers

-- @ezraklein

(@friedberg is off this week!)

(0:00) bestie intros!

(0:58) reacting to trump targeting china and postponing all other reciprocal tariffs

(21:21) measures for success of tariffs, debating the impact of letting china into the wto

(46:14) is the us being exploited on trade? was free trade a mistake?

(1:02:01) recession chances, how the trump administration gathers information

(1:19:39) future of the democratic party, abundance agenda, doge

(1:51:00) the besties recap the debate and chamath recaps the breakthrough prize ceremony
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⁠Capital Employed
Interesting pitch on $BFF – BFF Bank SpA 🇮🇹

$BFF.MI €7, €1.35B. Sized up recently. Quick pitch: leader in Italian non-recourse factoring market w/30% market share. The company runs a sustainable 30%+ROE & trades at 6x EPS. Baby thrown out w/bath due to classification as a ‘bank’, leading to misplaced neg. sentiment. 1/n - Garrett Arms
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⁠Capital Employed
Good pitch on $PK – Park Hotels & Resorts 🇺🇸

At today’s share price, a $76.8k position in Park Hotels and Resorts makes you the owner of exactly one of their 25k beautiful hotel rooms.

Replacement cost per room was $792k before tariffs increased that even more.

I made $PK a 10% position today. https://t.co/IR9tGc6Jt1 - Value Investigator
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⁠Capital Employed
Interesting pitch $NRP – Natural Resource Partners LP 🇺🇸

$NRP is starting to look interesting.

This is a cheap coal (80% met coal) royalty business that has been on a deleveraging path for the last 10 years. The company will likely pay off its remaining debt this year and begin paying dividends. Considering that it trades at less than 4x FCF (ex. stake in soda ash biz), the start of dividend payouts should be a meaningful catalyst.

Based on my estimates, there’s about 60% upside in this setup, even assuming $150M in norm. FCF ($220-230m last year), a level the company has almost never reached. During the low met coal pricing years (2015–16 and 2019), distributable cash flow from the coal business was between $187M and $214M, so $150M is a pretty conservative assumption. I’m capitalizing it at a 10% yield, which is more than reasonable given the quality of the royalty stream operations. This also excludes the COVID-affected years when distributable cash flow dropped to trough levels of $130M.

Why is the company cheap?

There are several reasons for NRP’s undervaluation. For one, it’s structured as an MLP, which by default limits the pool of interested investors. Additionally, coal remains an unloved industry among larger funds, so it’s no surprise the company trades at these levels. On top of that, we’re currently in a low coal and soda ash pricing environment due to weaker Chinese demand.

Despite this, NRP operates a royalty business with minimum payment commitments and limited exposure to global pricing and volume volatility. As a result, even a highly conservative normalized FCF estimate of $150M seems to more than compensate for the majority of these supply and demand-side risks.

The company owns 13m acres of mineral rights across various parts of the U.S., primarily for coal, most of which is metallurgical coal. These properties are leased for 5 to 40 years to some of the lowest-cost producers in the world. The mineral rights business generates about 80–85% of the company’s total distributable cash flow, with the remainder coming from its soda ash business.

Leading up to 2016, the previous management team pursued an aggressive M&A strategy and took on significant leverage. When coal prices collapsed in 2016, the company nearly went bankrupt. The CEO was removed, and new management pivoted to a strategy focused on debt reduction and selling off non-core assets. To survive the debt burden, the company was also forced to issue preferred equity and warrants, though these later became an overhang. Last year, all of the preferreds and warrants were finally eliminated. Now, with just a minimal amount of debt remaining (= to 1y of FCF), the company is positioned to start issuing dividends.

Finally, insiders own nearly 25% of the stock, so they’re well-incentivized to pursue buybacks or significantly higher dividend payouts. - Dalius - Special Sits
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