AkhenOsiris
He's baaaack
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He's baaaack
Trump: The record day on the stock market should continue. - FinancialJuicetweet
AkhenOsiris
The market just had an historic rip. Did you think most pundits would say "awesome, it's over, you can safely buy again, even after today's move".
No, that would never happen. Doubt is everywhere, and it's pretty much the prevailing view based on everyone I've seen come on BBG and CNBC since the rip today.
Doubt seems justified.
1. S&P earnings for the year will be lower than ests from beginning of the year. Multiple still high.
2. Tariffs are still sizable (but wayyyyyy lower than the atrocity announced on obliteration day).
3. Consumer has already been impacted. Whatever data you look at (confidence, travel, DAL earnings, WMT guidance, etc).
4. Admin has lost credibility.
5. Inflation has not been tamed (tariffs lowered but will still cause price bump).
On the flip side, we now have proof of the Trump put. A level was finally reached, whether stock market or bonds or both, where the plunge protection team was enabled.
The economy was clearly slowing before all of this started, which is fine, the goal was to not let it morph into a recession. Maybe that can still be averted now.
Based on Trump comments, the China issue seems to be one he wants to figure out sooner rather than later.
Finally, markets are dying to get past this tariff b.s. and move on to greener pastures (dereg and tax cuts).
We seem to have a somewhat balanced wall of worry, which is par for the course.
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The market just had an historic rip. Did you think most pundits would say "awesome, it's over, you can safely buy again, even after today's move".
No, that would never happen. Doubt is everywhere, and it's pretty much the prevailing view based on everyone I've seen come on BBG and CNBC since the rip today.
Doubt seems justified.
1. S&P earnings for the year will be lower than ests from beginning of the year. Multiple still high.
2. Tariffs are still sizable (but wayyyyyy lower than the atrocity announced on obliteration day).
3. Consumer has already been impacted. Whatever data you look at (confidence, travel, DAL earnings, WMT guidance, etc).
4. Admin has lost credibility.
5. Inflation has not been tamed (tariffs lowered but will still cause price bump).
On the flip side, we now have proof of the Trump put. A level was finally reached, whether stock market or bonds or both, where the plunge protection team was enabled.
The economy was clearly slowing before all of this started, which is fine, the goal was to not let it morph into a recession. Maybe that can still be averted now.
Based on Trump comments, the China issue seems to be one he wants to figure out sooner rather than later.
Finally, markets are dying to get past this tariff b.s. and move on to greener pastures (dereg and tax cuts).
We seem to have a somewhat balanced wall of worry, which is par for the course.
tweet
AkhenOsiris
Another sideswipe of Navarro in this Lutnick interview now on Fox News. Lutnick said it was "just the 3 of us in the room, myself, Scott (Bessent), and the President, as we told him all the countries reaching out to us".
He then later said it was himself, Bessent, and USTR Greer that have lots of work to do.
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Another sideswipe of Navarro in this Lutnick interview now on Fox News. Lutnick said it was "just the 3 of us in the room, myself, Scott (Bessent), and the President, as we told him all the countries reaching out to us".
He then later said it was himself, Bessent, and USTR Greer that have lots of work to do.
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AkhenOsiris
I feel better now...I think
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I feel better now...I think
WSJ: “Trump played his cards close to his vest. He told advisers that he was willing to take “pain,” a person who spoke to him on Monday said. He privately acknowledged that his trade policy could trigger a recession but said he wanted to be sure it didn’t cause a depression, according to people familiar with the conversations.” - tae kimtweet
AkhenOsiris
NYT:
But the details of the plan and its goals remained foggy. In the run-up to the tariff announcement last week, Mr. Trump’s economic team debated until the last minute about what form the tariffs should take, with Mr. Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick both privately arguing for more limited tariffs, according to two people familiar with the plans.
Peter Navarro, the White House trade adviser, was the most aggressive of Mr. Trump’s advisers, insisting on a tariff strategy that he claimed would create a revolution in American manufacturing. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative came up with its own formula for calculating tariff rates for other countries, based on their tariff rates plus an estimate of other trade barriers. But the president ultimately decided to go with a formula based on the trade deficit, two people familiar with the conversations said.
When the tariffs finally went into effect last Wednesday, the markets tanked.
By Sunday, Mr. Bessent decided that he needed a private audience with the president. In less than 24 hours, the markets would reopen and investors were predicting a “Black Monday.”
Mr. Bessent rode with Mr. Trump back to Washington on Air Force One. During the flight, Mr. Bessent advised the president to focus on negotiating with other countries, saying Mr. Trump is the most deft negotiator there is, four people briefed on the discussion said. But he also stressed that Mr. Trump needed to articulate the endgame of his plan because the markets needed more certainty.
Mr. Trump pushed back, the people said, emphasizing the pain was “short term,” one of the people said. But Mr. Bessent said that could mean many months in market terms.
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NYT:
But the details of the plan and its goals remained foggy. In the run-up to the tariff announcement last week, Mr. Trump’s economic team debated until the last minute about what form the tariffs should take, with Mr. Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick both privately arguing for more limited tariffs, according to two people familiar with the plans.
Peter Navarro, the White House trade adviser, was the most aggressive of Mr. Trump’s advisers, insisting on a tariff strategy that he claimed would create a revolution in American manufacturing. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative came up with its own formula for calculating tariff rates for other countries, based on their tariff rates plus an estimate of other trade barriers. But the president ultimately decided to go with a formula based on the trade deficit, two people familiar with the conversations said.
When the tariffs finally went into effect last Wednesday, the markets tanked.
By Sunday, Mr. Bessent decided that he needed a private audience with the president. In less than 24 hours, the markets would reopen and investors were predicting a “Black Monday.”
Mr. Bessent rode with Mr. Trump back to Washington on Air Force One. During the flight, Mr. Bessent advised the president to focus on negotiating with other countries, saying Mr. Trump is the most deft negotiator there is, four people briefed on the discussion said. But he also stressed that Mr. Trump needed to articulate the endgame of his plan because the markets needed more certainty.
Mr. Trump pushed back, the people said, emphasizing the pain was “short term,” one of the people said. But Mr. Bessent said that could mean many months in market terms.
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Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
We've already reported on some congressional stock purchases before the announcement of the tariff pause.
@AOC seems to be suggesting that there may be more: https://t.co/yNjJq2hP3u
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We've already reported on some congressional stock purchases before the announcement of the tariff pause.
@AOC seems to be suggesting that there may be more: https://t.co/yNjJq2hP3u
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Offshore
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Finding Compounders
Great piece by Charlie Munger
The Art of Soft Picking https://t.co/SBPJa1gSyh
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Great piece by Charlie Munger
The Art of Soft Picking https://t.co/SBPJa1gSyh
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Offshore
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: US stock market futures extend declines with the S&P 500 now down -100 points. https://t.co/eG01CX8SY0
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BREAKING: US stock market futures extend declines with the S&P 500 now down -100 points. https://t.co/eG01CX8SY0
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