Offshore
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The Dow is now up over +3,000 points for the first time in history. https://t.co/I9R6RcyErH
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BREAKING: The Dow is now up over +3,000 points for the first time in history. https://t.co/I9R6RcyErH
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Offshore
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The Nasdaq Composite closes +12.1% higher officially posting its 2nd largest gain in history. https://t.co/UG25zWzq2O
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BREAKING: The Nasdaq Composite closes +12.1% higher officially posting its 2nd largest gain in history. https://t.co/UG25zWzq2O
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Offshore
Video
The All-In Podcast
Former Uber CEO Travis Kalanick on Competing in China
"There's no way I could express the frenetic intensity of copying that they would do on everything that we would roll out in China."
On All-In E213, @travisk broke it down:
" It was so epically intense that I basically had a massive amount of respect for their ability to copy what we did."
"I just couldn't believe it."
"We would do real hard work. We'd dial it, and it would be epic, and it would be awesome."
"We'd roll it out, and then like two weeks later, boom! They've got it. A week later, boom! They've got it."
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Former Uber CEO Travis Kalanick on Competing in China
"There's no way I could express the frenetic intensity of copying that they would do on everything that we would roll out in China."
On All-In E213, @travisk broke it down:
" It was so epically intense that I basically had a massive amount of respect for their ability to copy what we did."
"I just couldn't believe it."
"We would do real hard work. We'd dial it, and it would be epic, and it would be awesome."
"We'd roll it out, and then like two weeks later, boom! They've got it. A week later, boom! They've got it."
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Offshore
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The odds of a recession in 2025 fall to 55% after the 90-day tariff pause, per @Kalshi. https://t.co/ixfUTUjx5D
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BREAKING: The odds of a recession in 2025 fall to 55% after the 90-day tariff pause, per @Kalshi. https://t.co/ixfUTUjx5D
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Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Representative Seth Magaziner just put out a statement on potential insider trading off Trump’s tariff announcements.
You can track politicians’ trades on Quiver. https://t.co/leVsUTjV3G
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JUST IN: Representative Seth Magaziner just put out a statement on potential insider trading off Trump’s tariff announcements.
You can track politicians’ trades on Quiver. https://t.co/leVsUTjV3G
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Offshore
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Fear & Greed Index jumped 14 points in one day today, but remains in Extreme Fear territory. https://t.co/tKRWFPuSyQ
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The Fear & Greed Index jumped 14 points in one day today, but remains in Extreme Fear territory. https://t.co/tKRWFPuSyQ
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Offshore
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Japan’s stock market surges +10% at the open on news of a 90-day tariff delay. https://t.co/vHDrc1aEPF
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BREAKING: Japan’s stock market surges +10% at the open on news of a 90-day tariff delay. https://t.co/vHDrc1aEPF
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AkhenOsiris
He's baaaack
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He's baaaack
Trump: The record day on the stock market should continue. - FinancialJuicetweet
AkhenOsiris
The market just had an historic rip. Did you think most pundits would say "awesome, it's over, you can safely buy again, even after today's move".
No, that would never happen. Doubt is everywhere, and it's pretty much the prevailing view based on everyone I've seen come on BBG and CNBC since the rip today.
Doubt seems justified.
1. S&P earnings for the year will be lower than ests from beginning of the year. Multiple still high.
2. Tariffs are still sizable (but wayyyyyy lower than the atrocity announced on obliteration day).
3. Consumer has already been impacted. Whatever data you look at (confidence, travel, DAL earnings, WMT guidance, etc).
4. Admin has lost credibility.
5. Inflation has not been tamed (tariffs lowered but will still cause price bump).
On the flip side, we now have proof of the Trump put. A level was finally reached, whether stock market or bonds or both, where the plunge protection team was enabled.
The economy was clearly slowing before all of this started, which is fine, the goal was to not let it morph into a recession. Maybe that can still be averted now.
Based on Trump comments, the China issue seems to be one he wants to figure out sooner rather than later.
Finally, markets are dying to get past this tariff b.s. and move on to greener pastures (dereg and tax cuts).
We seem to have a somewhat balanced wall of worry, which is par for the course.
tweet
The market just had an historic rip. Did you think most pundits would say "awesome, it's over, you can safely buy again, even after today's move".
No, that would never happen. Doubt is everywhere, and it's pretty much the prevailing view based on everyone I've seen come on BBG and CNBC since the rip today.
Doubt seems justified.
1. S&P earnings for the year will be lower than ests from beginning of the year. Multiple still high.
2. Tariffs are still sizable (but wayyyyyy lower than the atrocity announced on obliteration day).
3. Consumer has already been impacted. Whatever data you look at (confidence, travel, DAL earnings, WMT guidance, etc).
4. Admin has lost credibility.
5. Inflation has not been tamed (tariffs lowered but will still cause price bump).
On the flip side, we now have proof of the Trump put. A level was finally reached, whether stock market or bonds or both, where the plunge protection team was enabled.
The economy was clearly slowing before all of this started, which is fine, the goal was to not let it morph into a recession. Maybe that can still be averted now.
Based on Trump comments, the China issue seems to be one he wants to figure out sooner rather than later.
Finally, markets are dying to get past this tariff b.s. and move on to greener pastures (dereg and tax cuts).
We seem to have a somewhat balanced wall of worry, which is par for the course.
tweet