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The Kobeissi Letter
Market concentration is declining:
Magnificent 7 stocks' share of the S&P 500 is down 4 percentage points this year, to 27.6%, the lowest since April 2024.
This metric is now only ~1.5 percentage points above the Q4 2021 peak before the 2022 bear market began.
This comes as the group erased a whopping -$1.4 trillion in market cap last week.
Since its December peak, the Magnificent 7 have lost -$4.5 trillion in market value, down 28%.
This is almost DOUBLE the size of the entire German stock market.
The Magnificent 7's historic run has come to an end.
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Market concentration is declining:
Magnificent 7 stocks' share of the S&P 500 is down 4 percentage points this year, to 27.6%, the lowest since April 2024.
This metric is now only ~1.5 percentage points above the Q4 2021 peak before the 2022 bear market began.
This comes as the group erased a whopping -$1.4 trillion in market cap last week.
Since its December peak, the Magnificent 7 have lost -$4.5 trillion in market value, down 28%.
This is almost DOUBLE the size of the entire German stock market.
The Magnificent 7's historic run has come to an end.
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: President Trump officially signs Executive Order increasing tariffs on China to 104%. https://t.co/ankAz0wHwv
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BREAKING: President Trump officially signs Executive Order increasing tariffs on China to 104%. https://t.co/ankAz0wHwv
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BREAKING: S&P 500 futures collapse below 4900 as President Trump signs Executive Order raising tariffs on China to 104%.
Futures are now down -370 points since 10:30 AM ET. https://t.co/cTVE3ycDsp
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BREAKING: S&P 500 futures collapse below 4900 as President Trump signs Executive Order raising tariffs on China to 104%.
Futures are now down -370 points since 10:30 AM ET. https://t.co/cTVE3ycDsp
The BULL trap:
We just witnessed the biggest bull trap of 2025 with the S&P 500 erasing a ~4.5% rally in ~3 hours.
Between 10:30 AM ET and 3:15 PM ET, the S&P 500 erased -$2.3 TRILLION of market cap.
Bull traps are TEXTBOOK signs of a bear market.
(a thread) https://t.co/sGIqMRluiE tweet
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Investors are all-in on US stocks despite the recent pullback:
Households, mutual funds, pension funds, and foreign investors’ allocation to US equities is up to a record 51%.
This is above the previous peaks of 50% in the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble and prior to the 2022 bear market.
As a result, investors now allocate just 14% and 19% of their financial assets to cash and debt instruments.
To put this into perspective, at the low of the 2008 Financial Crisis, allocation to equities was at 28%.
Investors have rarely been this optimistic about the US stock market.
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Investors are all-in on US stocks despite the recent pullback:
Households, mutual funds, pension funds, and foreign investors’ allocation to US equities is up to a record 51%.
This is above the previous peaks of 50% in the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble and prior to the 2022 bear market.
As a result, investors now allocate just 14% and 19% of their financial assets to cash and debt instruments.
To put this into perspective, at the low of the 2008 Financial Crisis, allocation to equities was at 28%.
Investors have rarely been this optimistic about the US stock market.
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This is what you call a nightmare situation:
Treasury yields are now up +10% since April 3rd while the S&P 500 is down -10%.
The 10-year note yield is currently up 55 basis points in 48 HOURS.
In other words, we now have HIGHER rates with stocks pricing-in a recession.
Something broke this week.
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This is what you call a nightmare situation:
Treasury yields are now up +10% since April 3rd while the S&P 500 is down -10%.
The 10-year note yield is currently up 55 basis points in 48 HOURS.
In other words, we now have HIGHER rates with stocks pricing-in a recession.
Something broke this week.
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RT @TKL_Adam: The collapse of bond prices amid a tariff-induced recession will be studied for years to come.
Higher rates combined with GDP contraction is a lethal combination. https://t.co/AlsOgdU5Cn
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RT @TKL_Adam: The collapse of bond prices amid a tariff-induced recession will be studied for years to come.
Higher rates combined with GDP contraction is a lethal combination. https://t.co/AlsOgdU5Cn
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BREAKING: Oil prices fall below $57 for the first time since February 2021 as markets price in a global recession. https://t.co/MxYJZYgOAW
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BREAKING: Oil prices fall below $57 for the first time since February 2021 as markets price in a global recession. https://t.co/MxYJZYgOAW
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BREAKING: Bitcoin falls below $75,000 as crypto markets erase -$500 billion since the April 2nd high. https://t.co/uFBKUms881
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BREAKING: Bitcoin falls below $75,000 as crypto markets erase -$500 billion since the April 2nd high. https://t.co/uFBKUms881
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App Economy Insights
RT @EconomyApp: The steepest US tariffs in a century are in.
📦 Hundreds of goods hit.
🌏 China, Vietnam, and the EU—targeted.
🔍 What sparked it—and who pays the price?
https://t.co/Fhs4nKAGaP
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RT @EconomyApp: The steepest US tariffs in a century are in.
📦 Hundreds of goods hit.
🌏 China, Vietnam, and the EU—targeted.
🔍 What sparked it—and who pays the price?
https://t.co/Fhs4nKAGaP
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You can't make this up:
The 10-year note yield now up +60 basis points in 48 hours.
At this rate, we will have 8% mortgages and a recession by the end of the month.
Talk about a turn of events. https://t.co/TrxGP1wKxl
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You can't make this up:
The 10-year note yield now up +60 basis points in 48 hours.
At this rate, we will have 8% mortgages and a recession by the end of the month.
Talk about a turn of events. https://t.co/TrxGP1wKxl
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