Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
Crazy.
Nancy Pelosi has now lost $16M in the stock market in the last week.
Down another $3M today.
Track live on Quiver: https://t.co/1u3Ce3kufz
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Crazy.
Nancy Pelosi has now lost $16M in the stock market in the last week.
Down another $3M today.
Track live on Quiver: https://t.co/1u3Ce3kufz
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Offshore
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The All-In Podcast
that pre-show countdown gets us fired up 🔥 💓
this september, the world's greatest conference returns.
tickets are live. apply now!
⏲️when: september 7-9
🌅where: los angeles, ca
✅apply: https://t.co/qFB2zPKnvB https://t.co/ewbekAXoru
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that pre-show countdown gets us fired up 🔥 💓
this september, the world's greatest conference returns.
tickets are live. apply now!
⏲️when: september 7-9
🌅where: los angeles, ca
✅apply: https://t.co/qFB2zPKnvB https://t.co/ewbekAXoru
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Offshore
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: On a point basis, the S&P 500 just posted its largest intraday reversal in history, even larger than 2020, 2008 and 2001.
You have just witnessed history.
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BREAKING: On a point basis, the S&P 500 just posted its largest intraday reversal in history, even larger than 2020, 2008 and 2001.
You have just witnessed history.
The BULL trap:
We just witnessed the biggest bull trap of 2025 with the S&P 500 erasing a ~4.5% rally in ~3 hours.
Between 10:30 AM ET and 3:15 PM ET, the S&P 500 erased -$2.3 TRILLION of market cap.
Bull traps are TEXTBOOK signs of a bear market.
(a thread) https://t.co/sGIqMRluiE tweet
Offshore
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The Kobeissi Letter
This is insane:
The S&P 500 is currently in its 11th-worst uninterrupted decline since 1940.
Over the past 4 trading sessions, the index has dropped a massive -12.1%.
We are in-line with March 2020, October 2008, and September 2001 drawdowns.
Take advantage of this volatility.
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This is insane:
The S&P 500 is currently in its 11th-worst uninterrupted decline since 1940.
Over the past 4 trading sessions, the index has dropped a massive -12.1%.
We are in-line with March 2020, October 2008, and September 2001 drawdowns.
Take advantage of this volatility.
The BULL trap:
We just witnessed the biggest bull trap of 2025 with the S&P 500 erasing a ~4.5% rally in ~3 hours.
Between 10:30 AM ET and 3:15 PM ET, the S&P 500 erased -$2.3 TRILLION of market cap.
Bull traps are TEXTBOOK signs of a bear market.
(a thread) https://t.co/sGIqMRluiE tweet
Offshore
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The Kobeissi Letter
US economic outlook is deteriorating:
The ISM Services PMI index dropped 2.7 points in March, to 50.8, the lowest since June 2024.
New orders fell 1.8 points, to 50.4, a 9-month low, suggesting more weakness in the services sector going forward.
Furthermore, the prices paid index came at 60.9 points, the 4th consecutive reading above 60, the longest such streak in 2 years.
Concerningly, the employment index fell a whopping 7.7 points, to 46.2, the lowest since December 2023.
We now have shrinking employment in both services and manufacturing sectors.
US business sentiment is collapsing.
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US economic outlook is deteriorating:
The ISM Services PMI index dropped 2.7 points in March, to 50.8, the lowest since June 2024.
New orders fell 1.8 points, to 50.4, a 9-month low, suggesting more weakness in the services sector going forward.
Furthermore, the prices paid index came at 60.9 points, the 4th consecutive reading above 60, the longest such streak in 2 years.
Concerningly, the employment index fell a whopping 7.7 points, to 46.2, the lowest since December 2023.
We now have shrinking employment in both services and manufacturing sectors.
US business sentiment is collapsing.
tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
The last 24 hours highlight just how powerful sentiment is:
At 10:15 AM yesterday, the "fake news" 90-day tariff delay announcement led to a 400+ point rally in the S&P 500.
Through this morning, the fundamental situation ONLY deteriorated as Trump imposed additional 50% tariffs on China and China vowed to "fight until the end."
By 11:30 AM ET today, the S&P 500 was up +450 points from its lows as the fundamental situation got WORSE.
So, why did we rally?
Purely because there was "hope" of a trade deal lingering from yesterday and sentiment improved.
Then, when the White House said 104% tariffs on China were "in effect," sentiment quickly flipped, despite information that was already known, and stocks collapsed.
If you can stay ahead of swings in sentiment, this market is incredibly profitable right now.
tweet
The last 24 hours highlight just how powerful sentiment is:
At 10:15 AM yesterday, the "fake news" 90-day tariff delay announcement led to a 400+ point rally in the S&P 500.
Through this morning, the fundamental situation ONLY deteriorated as Trump imposed additional 50% tariffs on China and China vowed to "fight until the end."
By 11:30 AM ET today, the S&P 500 was up +450 points from its lows as the fundamental situation got WORSE.
So, why did we rally?
Purely because there was "hope" of a trade deal lingering from yesterday and sentiment improved.
Then, when the White House said 104% tariffs on China were "in effect," sentiment quickly flipped, despite information that was already known, and stocks collapsed.
If you can stay ahead of swings in sentiment, this market is incredibly profitable right now.
tweet
Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
Marjorie Taylor Greene just made new stock trades.
Look at this: https://t.co/53GJIslKvJ
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Marjorie Taylor Greene just made new stock trades.
Look at this: https://t.co/53GJIslKvJ
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The Kobeissi Letter
RT @TKL_Adam: The rush to the exit:
Asset selloffs are defying historical correlations, coming with drops in stocks, gold, bonds, and oil prices, all at the same time.
It's not often you see a market where ALL assets are liquidated simultaneously.
Everyone wants cash, yet so many are trapped.
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RT @TKL_Adam: The rush to the exit:
Asset selloffs are defying historical correlations, coming with drops in stocks, gold, bonds, and oil prices, all at the same time.
It's not often you see a market where ALL assets are liquidated simultaneously.
Everyone wants cash, yet so many are trapped.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Stock market futures extend declines with the Dow now down nearly -300 points since the close. https://t.co/sjpDt0m5EB
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BREAKING: Stock market futures extend declines with the Dow now down nearly -300 points since the close. https://t.co/sjpDt0m5EB
The BULL trap:
We just witnessed the biggest bull trap of 2025 with the S&P 500 erasing a ~4.5% rally in ~3 hours.
Between 10:30 AM ET and 3:15 PM ET, the S&P 500 erased -$2.3 TRILLION of market cap.
Bull traps are TEXTBOOK signs of a bear market.
(a thread) https://t.co/sGIqMRluiE tweet