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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The S&P 500 closes the day over -1% lower after posting a 5.5% reversal in one of the largest bull traps this year.
In just 8 hours, President Trump's reciprocal tariffs will be going LIVE.
Expect a busy night ahead. https://t.co/18Somx9C8U
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BREAKING: The S&P 500 closes the day over -1% lower after posting a 5.5% reversal in one of the largest bull traps this year.
In just 8 hours, President Trump's reciprocal tariffs will be going LIVE.
Expect a busy night ahead. https://t.co/18Somx9C8U
The BULL trap:
We just witnessed the biggest bull trap of 2025 with the S&P 500 erasing a ~4.5% rally in ~3 hours.
Between 10:30 AM ET and 3:15 PM ET, the S&P 500 erased -$2.3 TRILLION of market cap.
Bull traps are TEXTBOOK signs of a bear market.
(a thread) https://t.co/sGIqMRluiE tweet
Offshore
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The S&P 500 just posted its largest intraday reversal in history, even larger than 2020, 2008 and 2001.
You have just witnessed history.
tweet
BREAKING: The S&P 500 just posted its largest intraday reversal in history, even larger than 2020, 2008 and 2001.
You have just witnessed history.
The BULL trap:
We just witnessed the biggest bull trap of 2025 with the S&P 500 erasing a ~4.5% rally in ~3 hours.
Between 10:30 AM ET and 3:15 PM ET, the S&P 500 erased -$2.3 TRILLION of market cap.
Bull traps are TEXTBOOK signs of a bear market.
(a thread) https://t.co/sGIqMRluiE tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The odds of Commerce Secretary Lutnick leaving the Trump Administration in 2025 are currently up to 48%, per @Kalshi. https://t.co/0oQ0ouAaz1
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BREAKING: The odds of Commerce Secretary Lutnick leaving the Trump Administration in 2025 are currently up to 48%, per @Kalshi. https://t.co/0oQ0ouAaz1
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The Kobeissi Letter
Retail investors continue piling into stocks:
Retail investors’ net inflows into US ETFs and single stocks hit a record ~$40 billion in March.
This is ~$10 billion higher than the previous all-time high posted at the beginning of the 2022 bear market.
Not even the meme stock mania in 2021 saw such massive retail inflows into equities.
As retail investors buy the dip, major indices have pushed lower and entered bear market territory.
Many retail investors are experiencing their first bear market.
tweet
Retail investors continue piling into stocks:
Retail investors’ net inflows into US ETFs and single stocks hit a record ~$40 billion in March.
This is ~$10 billion higher than the previous all-time high posted at the beginning of the 2022 bear market.
Not even the meme stock mania in 2021 saw such massive retail inflows into equities.
As retail investors buy the dip, major indices have pushed lower and entered bear market territory.
Many retail investors are experiencing their first bear market.
tweet
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Quiver Quantitative
Crazy.
Nancy Pelosi has now lost $16M in the stock market in the last week.
Down another $3M today.
Track live on Quiver: https://t.co/1u3Ce3kufz
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Crazy.
Nancy Pelosi has now lost $16M in the stock market in the last week.
Down another $3M today.
Track live on Quiver: https://t.co/1u3Ce3kufz
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The All-In Podcast
that pre-show countdown gets us fired up 🔥 💓
this september, the world's greatest conference returns.
tickets are live. apply now!
⏲️when: september 7-9
🌅where: los angeles, ca
✅apply: https://t.co/qFB2zPKnvB https://t.co/ewbekAXoru
tweet
that pre-show countdown gets us fired up 🔥 💓
this september, the world's greatest conference returns.
tickets are live. apply now!
⏲️when: september 7-9
🌅where: los angeles, ca
✅apply: https://t.co/qFB2zPKnvB https://t.co/ewbekAXoru
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: On a point basis, the S&P 500 just posted its largest intraday reversal in history, even larger than 2020, 2008 and 2001.
You have just witnessed history.
tweet
BREAKING: On a point basis, the S&P 500 just posted its largest intraday reversal in history, even larger than 2020, 2008 and 2001.
You have just witnessed history.
The BULL trap:
We just witnessed the biggest bull trap of 2025 with the S&P 500 erasing a ~4.5% rally in ~3 hours.
Between 10:30 AM ET and 3:15 PM ET, the S&P 500 erased -$2.3 TRILLION of market cap.
Bull traps are TEXTBOOK signs of a bear market.
(a thread) https://t.co/sGIqMRluiE tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
This is insane:
The S&P 500 is currently in its 11th-worst uninterrupted decline since 1940.
Over the past 4 trading sessions, the index has dropped a massive -12.1%.
We are in-line with March 2020, October 2008, and September 2001 drawdowns.
Take advantage of this volatility.
tweet
This is insane:
The S&P 500 is currently in its 11th-worst uninterrupted decline since 1940.
Over the past 4 trading sessions, the index has dropped a massive -12.1%.
We are in-line with March 2020, October 2008, and September 2001 drawdowns.
Take advantage of this volatility.
The BULL trap:
We just witnessed the biggest bull trap of 2025 with the S&P 500 erasing a ~4.5% rally in ~3 hours.
Between 10:30 AM ET and 3:15 PM ET, the S&P 500 erased -$2.3 TRILLION of market cap.
Bull traps are TEXTBOOK signs of a bear market.
(a thread) https://t.co/sGIqMRluiE tweet