⁠Finding Compounders
Drivers of Total Shareholder Return

Source : Total Shareholder Return by Michael J. Mauboussin and Dan Callahan https://t.co/ZRDA2QoNOv
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AkhenOsiris
The facking nerve 😂

The country is 100% behind the president on fixing a global system of tariffs that has disadvantaged the country. But, business is a confidence game and confidence depends on trust.

President @realDonaldTrump has elevated the tariff issue to the most important geopolitical issue in the world, and he has gotten everyone’s attention. So far, so good.

And yes, other nations have taken advantage of the U.S. by protecting their home industries at the expense of millions of our jobs and economic growth in our country.

But, by placing massive and disproportionate tariffs on our friends and our enemies alike and thereby launching a global economic war against the whole world at once, we are in the process of destroying confidence in our country as a trading partner, as a place to do business, and as a market to invest capital.

The president has an opportunity to call a 90-day time out, negotiate and resolve unfair asymmetric tariff deals, and induce trillions of dollars of new investment in our country.

If, on the other hand, on April 9th we launch economic nuclear war on every country in the world, business investment will grind to a halt, consumers will close their wallets and pocket books, and we will severely damage our reputation with the rest of the world that will take years and potentially decades to rehabilitate.

What CEO and what board of directors will be comfortable making large,
long-term, economic commitments in our country in the middle of an economic nuclear war?

I don’t know of one who will do so.

When markets crash, new investment stops, consumers stop spending money, and businesses have no choice but to curtail investment and fire workers.

And it is not just the big companies that will suffer. Small and medium size businesses and entrepreneurs will experience much greater pain. Almost no business can pass through an overnight massive increase in costs to their customers. And that’s true even if they have no debt, and, unfortunately, there is a massive amount of leverage in the system.

Business is a confidence game. The president is losing the confidence of business leaders around the globe. The consequences for our country and the millions of our citizens who have supported the president — in particular low-income consumers who are already under a huge amount of economic stress — are going to be severely negative. This is not what we voted for.

The President has an opportunity on Monday to call a time out and have the time to execute on fixing an unfair tariff system.

Alternatively, we are heading for a self-induced, economic nuclear winter, and we should start hunkering down.

May cooler heads prevail. - Bill Ackman
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AkhenOsiris
Nike wants to hire guys like Gary for $6/hr for the factories moving from Vietnam to the US
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AkhenOsiris
Guy beside me filling his tank at the gas station looked over with glee "amazing how fast gas prices fell, love it".

I smiled back.
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AkhenOsiris
Back in January, 3 of my dearest buyside buddies had tariffs never even being put on (threat only), the other 4 had 10% max, (not 20%), and forget about 30-40%.

Part of this collapse is the level of offsides coming in to Obliteration Day, everyone from your Uber driver to sneaky Fackman and everyone in between
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AkhenOsiris
Remember the vibes? 😂
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AkhenOsiris
😂

this does feel a bit like the 1929 crash but reminds me more of the correction back in 1889 .. - JE$US
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AkhenOsiris
Every crisis has its own uniqueness and nuances, and while I have no doubt that anyone buying markets down 25% or lower will be fine looking out several years...the vibes feel different here because the trigger for this crisis has 4 long years to go in office.
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AkhenOsiris
Has any sell-side modeled out the Taiwan invasion yet? Or is it just "forget about markets, focus on survival".
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AkhenOsiris
Goldman ups its recession odds for the 2nd time in a week — from 35% to 45%.

“.. sharp tightening in financial conditions, foreign consumer boycotts, and a continued spike in policy uncertainty that is likely to depress capital spending by more than we had previously assumed.”

h/t @carlquintanilla
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AkhenOsiris
TIL this admin i've been bending over for is actually...bad.

I just figured out why @howardlutnick is indifferent to the stock market and the economy crashing. He and Cantor are long bonds. He profits when our economy implodes.

It’s a bad idea to pick a Secretary of Commerce whose firm is levered long fixed income. It’s an irreconcilable conflict of interest. - Bill Ackman
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AkhenOsiris
RT @JerryCap: The Art of the Retard

At current levels we are looking at worst ever three day move in $ES - Will Hershey
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⁠Hidden Value Gems
I always thought that specialisation is a win-win, depending on your competencies and natural advantages.

It is good to be a world’s leader in Tech & AI. Some countries are more competitive in labour intensive sectors.

But it looks like the new administration wants US to produce t-shirts, shoes and everything else at home. In the meantime they risk losing their positions in more strategic sectors.

Strange choice…
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⁠Finding Compounders
This is a must read for every investor

Sequoia’s 1978 Quarterly Report

“ If anyone offers you a new Mercedes for $2500, take it and don’t worry about the outcome of the Salt talks or the Middle East situation”

The gist of this letter : Focus on what actually matters !! https://t.co/0SVUULOOp9
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