⁠The Kobeissi Letter
Did the White House compute "reciprocal tariffs" incorrectly?

New Trump tariffs are claiming to raise $3+ trillion over 10 years.

According to AEI, the formula used to calculate tariffs levied on the US was INFLATED by up to 400%.

Here's the breakdown.

(a thread) https://t.co/bgldYnBLBK
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⁠Finding Compounders
Time for some reading

Source : https://t.co/qiIw9okRP2 https://t.co/utnJOazWeb
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⁠The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Bitcoin falls below $81,000 as Trump Administration officials say tariffs will not be delayed.

We are 4 hours out from US stock market futures opening. https://t.co/NrgQp7wdWX
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⁠The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Ethereum falls over -5% and breaks below $1,700 for the first time since August 2023.

Risky assets are still being liquidated. https://t.co/5JWPLkB9pr
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Seven Republican Senators have now cosponsored a bill that would give Congress a vote on new tariffs.

Do you support this?

You can track the bill on Quiver. https://t.co/f3yZ1IaupK
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⁠The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Vanguard emails clients asking them to “resist the urge to deviate from [their] financial plan” as markets fall sharply.

Vanguard is asking clients not to take money out of the market.

How’s that for a sentiment check? https://t.co/whAofNWsO3

It's "reciprocal tariffs on reciprocal tariffs" week:

After imposing tariffs on 185 countries at ONCE, we expect retaliation this week.

The US stock market has lost $11.1 TRILLION in 44 trading days, equivalent to ~38% of US GDP.

Here's what you need to know.

(a thread) https://t.co/7OGYVEhw7F - The Kobeissi Letter
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⁠The Kobeissi Letter
Losses in crypto markets are accelerating with Bitcoin set to break below $80,000.

This points to continued selling in risky assets at the 6 PM ET futures open.

We still have 4 hours for a potential Trump post.

Markets are searching for hope. https://t.co/zd3dcMe8DM
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⁠The All-In Podcast
Chamath's CDS Bet: Outlining Major Corporate Debt Default Risks

"With all of the tariffs, the one thing that we haven't sufficiently talked about is there is a tremendous amount of corporate debt that supports these businesses today."

"And you would say, 'Well, if long-term rates go down, there's no real risk.'"

"But the tariff picture actually impacts revenues."

"And the problem with that is that there's a lot of companies that have debt covenants tied to revenue and EBITDA."

"And so this is what I spoke about at the beginning of January, which is, the one risk that is uncontrollable, is what happens to corporate debt and could we see a wave of defaults and a wave of action?"

On our 2025 predictions show in January, @chamath picked credit default swaps as his best-performing asset this year, calling it a long-shot with major upside:

" I would be long CDS. I'm buying insurance using credit default swaps. I think that there is a small chance of some volatility next year. I hope it doesn't happen. I hope that this trade loses money. But if it hits, it will be the best-performing asset of 2025."

Fast-forward to April:

" It has hit. For every billion dollars of risk you would've put on, would have cost you ~$1M, and that million dollars would've made you ~$7M in about three months."

"Why is this important? The CDS actually represents the structural risk in the United States corporate economy."

"So when you see these spreads blowing out, this is actually a very important warning sign."

"This is what was the canary in the coal mine for the Great Financial Crisis."

"The tariff picture and the recession picture will get played out in this chart."

"And I think it's something that folks can and should probably pay tremendous attention to."
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⁠The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Bitcoin’s losses accelerate, now trading below $79,000, as markets brace for US equity market futures to open. https://t.co/8jvB0wPizu
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