Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
Retail investors piled into stocks in March:
Retail investors’ net inflows into US ETFs and single stocks hit a record ~$40 billion in March.
This is ~$10 billion higher than the previous all-time high posted at the beginning of the 2022 bear market.
Not even the meme stock mania in 2021 saw such massive retail inflows into equities.
As retail investors buy the dip, major indices have pushed lower and entered bear market territory.
Many retail investors are experiencing their first bear market.
tweet
Retail investors piled into stocks in March:
Retail investors’ net inflows into US ETFs and single stocks hit a record ~$40 billion in March.
This is ~$10 billion higher than the previous all-time high posted at the beginning of the 2022 bear market.
Not even the meme stock mania in 2021 saw such massive retail inflows into equities.
As retail investors buy the dip, major indices have pushed lower and entered bear market territory.
Many retail investors are experiencing their first bear market.
The hedge fund MASS exodus:
On Thursday ALONE, hedge funds sold $40 BILLION of stocks in their largest daily selling spree since 2010.
Short sales exceeded longs by 3 TIMES, with North American stocks accounting for 75% of volume.
Is "capitulation" near?
(a thread) https://t.co/kUU8NXgatk tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Jim Cramer says a Black Monday stock market crash similar to October 1987 is not "off the table yet." https://t.co/p7kQjH7omO
tweet
BREAKING: Jim Cramer says a Black Monday stock market crash similar to October 1987 is not "off the table yet." https://t.co/p7kQjH7omO
tweet
Offshore
Photo
App Economy Insights
Earnings season is back!
Will Q2 outlooks ease investor anxiety—or fuel more volatility?
• Tuesday: $TLRY.
• Wednesday: $DAL, $STZ.
• Friday: $JPM, $WFC, $MS, $BLK.
Stay tuned for our PRO coverage next Saturday. https://t.co/vB3uqHB5Vk
tweet
Earnings season is back!
Will Q2 outlooks ease investor anxiety—or fuel more volatility?
• Tuesday: $TLRY.
• Wednesday: $DAL, $STZ.
• Friday: $JPM, $WFC, $MS, $BLK.
Stay tuned for our PRO coverage next Saturday. https://t.co/vB3uqHB5Vk
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Finding Compounders
The Role of ROIC explained by Epoch Investments Partners. https://t.co/6NitD06ahY
tweet
The Role of ROIC explained by Epoch Investments Partners. https://t.co/6NitD06ahY
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Finding Compounders
RT @gainify_io: It’s official — $GOOGL is a "VALUE" stock.
📉 Trades at just 16.8x forward earnings
🔻 Over a 20% discount to the S&P 500 on a forward P/E basis https://t.co/ClsIItncUZ
tweet
RT @gainify_io: It’s official — $GOOGL is a "VALUE" stock.
📉 Trades at just 16.8x forward earnings
🔻 Over a 20% discount to the S&P 500 on a forward P/E basis https://t.co/ClsIItncUZ
tweet
Offshore
Video
The All-In Podcast
Friedberg Explains Trump's Tariffs: Take Them Seriously, But Expect Negotiations
"For months, they've been very declarative: 'We are going to do tariffs.'"
"Bessent said it to us in our interview. Lutnick said it to us in our interview."
"No one took them seriously. And everyone thought they were bluffing."
" And they actually have to do it in order to get the leverage that they need to be able to negotiate trade deals."
"And they have to look a little crazy."
"Now everyone takes them seriously."
"Now everyone shows up to the negotiating table and now they can actually negotiate and then announce a series of win, after win, after win, and say, we got this set of countries to capitulate today, by making the case that they're actually willing to go all the way to the wall on stuff."
" That's the only way I can kind of rationalize this rollout."
tweet
Friedberg Explains Trump's Tariffs: Take Them Seriously, But Expect Negotiations
"For months, they've been very declarative: 'We are going to do tariffs.'"
"Bessent said it to us in our interview. Lutnick said it to us in our interview."
"No one took them seriously. And everyone thought they were bluffing."
" And they actually have to do it in order to get the leverage that they need to be able to negotiate trade deals."
"And they have to look a little crazy."
"Now everyone takes them seriously."
"Now everyone shows up to the negotiating table and now they can actually negotiate and then announce a series of win, after win, after win, and say, we got this set of countries to capitulate today, by making the case that they're actually willing to go all the way to the wall on stuff."
" That's the only way I can kind of rationalize this rollout."
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: US job cut announcements spiked 205% year-over-year, to 275,240 in March, the 3rd-highest monthly reading on record.
This is also up 60% from the previous month when 172,017 cuts were announced.
Moreover, this is higher than in any month during the 2008 Financial Crisis and the 2001 recession.
Year-to-date, US employers have announced 497,052 job cuts, the highest quarterly total since Q1 2009.
The US government has led all sectors with 216,215 cuts in March and 279,445 cuts year-to-date, up 672% from Q1 2024.
The DOGE effect is real.
tweet
BREAKING: US job cut announcements spiked 205% year-over-year, to 275,240 in March, the 3rd-highest monthly reading on record.
This is also up 60% from the previous month when 172,017 cuts were announced.
Moreover, this is higher than in any month during the 2008 Financial Crisis and the 2001 recession.
Year-to-date, US employers have announced 497,052 job cuts, the highest quarterly total since Q1 2009.
The US government has led all sectors with 216,215 cuts in March and 279,445 cuts year-to-date, up 672% from Q1 2024.
The DOGE effect is real.
tweet
AkhenOsiris
FT:
US companies are struggling to figure out how to respond to Donald Trump’s trade war, concerned about the impact of the president’s tariffs on the economy but wary of speaking out for fear of retaliation by the White House, according to executives and board members.
Corporate leaders are unsure of how far to go in re-engineering their businesses in response to Wednesday’s tariffs, amid doubts over how long Trump will stick to his current course and hope that they can lobby him to ease some of the policies.
Complicating matters is a climate of fear created by the White House’s recent targeting of law firms including Paul Weiss.
“You don’t want to be the barking dog for everyone else because you’re going to be the one who will get shot,” said one person who leads the board of a US company.
Another executive on a corporate board said the best approach was to make the case to Trump and his team privately that these policies could hurt his core constituents through higher prices and job losses.
“It is going to be velvet glove lobbying at his more thoughtful policy advisers and that clearly includes Scott,” said another executive on a US board, referring to US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent.
Disney chief executive Bob Iger voiced concern on Thursday at an internal editorial meeting at ABC News, according to people who heard the remarks.
He said that it would not be easy for US companies to shift their production to the country because of specialised workforces and differing skillsets across borders. Iger cited the example of Apple’s Foxconn facilities in China, where the tech giant makes the vast majority of its devices.
Iger also cautioned that Disney itself would be affected. With steel prices likely to rise, the company’s costs of building cruise ships would go up, he said.
A private equity executive at one of the industry’s largest firms said many companies had analysed and gamed out tariffs to see their impact on their bottom lines and drawn up solutions to be prepared for “liberation day”, when the tariffs were announced.
But that preliminary work was thrown out because the formula the White House used to calculate the tariffs came nowhere near people’s expectations.
Scores of investment firms have or are planning to outline their views on tariffs to clients, many of whom are overseas investors who were shocked by the scope and direction of the levies.
Carlyle Group on Monday will host a “special global investment environment update” call with top investors, in which co-founder David Rubenstein and two other executives are expected to outline a playbook to deal with the tariffs.
tweet
FT:
US companies are struggling to figure out how to respond to Donald Trump’s trade war, concerned about the impact of the president’s tariffs on the economy but wary of speaking out for fear of retaliation by the White House, according to executives and board members.
Corporate leaders are unsure of how far to go in re-engineering their businesses in response to Wednesday’s tariffs, amid doubts over how long Trump will stick to his current course and hope that they can lobby him to ease some of the policies.
Complicating matters is a climate of fear created by the White House’s recent targeting of law firms including Paul Weiss.
“You don’t want to be the barking dog for everyone else because you’re going to be the one who will get shot,” said one person who leads the board of a US company.
Another executive on a corporate board said the best approach was to make the case to Trump and his team privately that these policies could hurt his core constituents through higher prices and job losses.
“It is going to be velvet glove lobbying at his more thoughtful policy advisers and that clearly includes Scott,” said another executive on a US board, referring to US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent.
Disney chief executive Bob Iger voiced concern on Thursday at an internal editorial meeting at ABC News, according to people who heard the remarks.
He said that it would not be easy for US companies to shift their production to the country because of specialised workforces and differing skillsets across borders. Iger cited the example of Apple’s Foxconn facilities in China, where the tech giant makes the vast majority of its devices.
Iger also cautioned that Disney itself would be affected. With steel prices likely to rise, the company’s costs of building cruise ships would go up, he said.
A private equity executive at one of the industry’s largest firms said many companies had analysed and gamed out tariffs to see their impact on their bottom lines and drawn up solutions to be prepared for “liberation day”, when the tariffs were announced.
But that preliminary work was thrown out because the formula the White House used to calculate the tariffs came nowhere near people’s expectations.
Scores of investment firms have or are planning to outline their views on tariffs to clients, many of whom are overseas investors who were shocked by the scope and direction of the levies.
Carlyle Group on Monday will host a “special global investment environment update” call with top investors, in which co-founder David Rubenstein and two other executives are expected to outline a playbook to deal with the tariffs.
tweet
AkhenOsiris
Are the Taliban the inspiration for the government?
Wedbush: “.. We have spoken to hundreds of investors, tech CEOs, supply chain experts around the world this week ..
“.. In a nutshell, if these tariffs (in current form/rates) hold there is no debate .. it would set the US tech world back a decade in our opinion while China is the clear winner.”
h/t @carlquintanilla
tweet
Are the Taliban the inspiration for the government?
Wedbush: “.. We have spoken to hundreds of investors, tech CEOs, supply chain experts around the world this week ..
“.. In a nutshell, if these tariffs (in current form/rates) hold there is no debate .. it would set the US tech world back a decade in our opinion while China is the clear winner.”
h/t @carlquintanilla
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Investing visuals
Three semi stocks that are down 🔻35% or more from their highs 👇🧵
$ASML 🔻43% https://t.co/dFiL2Aka1i
tweet
Three semi stocks that are down 🔻35% or more from their highs 👇🧵
$ASML 🔻43% https://t.co/dFiL2Aka1i
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Finding Compounders
“ Insiders might sell their shares for any number of reasons, but they buy them for only one: They think the price will rise .” -Peter Lynch
$srbk https://t.co/DifJGlZu78
tweet
“ Insiders might sell their shares for any number of reasons, but they buy them for only one: They think the price will rise .” -Peter Lynch
$srbk https://t.co/DifJGlZu78
tweet