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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The odds of the US entering a recession in 2025 rise to a new high of 47%, per @Kalshi. https://t.co/8DNBqWS1nN
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BREAKING: The odds of the US entering a recession in 2025 rise to a new high of 47%, per @Kalshi. https://t.co/8DNBqWS1nN
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The Kobeissi Letter
Our thoughts on the outcome of "Liberation Day" in the US:
1. Just about all hopes of tariffs being "less widespread than expected" have been crushed today with new tariffs on 185 countries
2. The Trump Administration has been articulating EXACTLY what they were going to do for months
3. Now, the stock market is finally starting to believe what they are saying
4. On March 6th, President Trump said he was "not watching the stock market," but markets looked past it
5. The narrative quickly became "short-term pain for a long-term gain"
6. Today, President Trump doubled down on that view, raising tariffs on China to a whopping 54%
7. Minutes later, Treasury Secretary Bessent said "the stock market selloff is a Mag7 problem, not a MAGA problem"
8. With the Nasdaq 100 now set to open more than 900 points lower, the question is what's next?
9. In times of extreme volatility, we look to trade swings in sentiment
10. Short-term price action will not be based on fundamentals, it will be based on shifts in sentiment
For now, tariffs are set to go live on April 5th and 9th without a clear end in sight to the trade war.
Sentiment will become more polarized and positioning will follow, avoid catching a falling knife.
Don't fear the volatility, capitalize on it.
tweet
Our thoughts on the outcome of "Liberation Day" in the US:
1. Just about all hopes of tariffs being "less widespread than expected" have been crushed today with new tariffs on 185 countries
2. The Trump Administration has been articulating EXACTLY what they were going to do for months
3. Now, the stock market is finally starting to believe what they are saying
4. On March 6th, President Trump said he was "not watching the stock market," but markets looked past it
5. The narrative quickly became "short-term pain for a long-term gain"
6. Today, President Trump doubled down on that view, raising tariffs on China to a whopping 54%
7. Minutes later, Treasury Secretary Bessent said "the stock market selloff is a Mag7 problem, not a MAGA problem"
8. With the Nasdaq 100 now set to open more than 900 points lower, the question is what's next?
9. In times of extreme volatility, we look to trade swings in sentiment
10. Short-term price action will not be based on fundamentals, it will be based on shifts in sentiment
For now, tariffs are set to go live on April 5th and 9th without a clear end in sight to the trade war.
Sentiment will become more polarized and positioning will follow, avoid catching a falling knife.
Don't fear the volatility, capitalize on it.
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: A handful of Republicans broke with President Trump on trade policy, joining with Democrats to pass a resolution aiming to undo the president’s 25% tariff on Canadian imports, per WSJ. https://t.co/3NRMzHxSBj
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BREAKING: A handful of Republicans broke with President Trump on trade policy, joining with Democrats to pass a resolution aiming to undo the president’s 25% tariff on Canadian imports, per WSJ. https://t.co/3NRMzHxSBj
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Russell 2000 futures point to a drop of over -5% at the open tomorrow. https://t.co/uB8xVLG9ZJ
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BREAKING: Russell 2000 futures point to a drop of over -5% at the open tomorrow. https://t.co/uB8xVLG9ZJ
"Reciprocal tariffs" are officially HERE:
President Trump just announced tariffs on 185 countries AT ONCE, one of the largest tariffs in US history.
S&P 500 futures erased -$2 TRILLION of market cap in under 15 minutes.
What just happened? Let us explain.
(a thread) https://t.co/S4pmsDweNB tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
TECH STOCKS AFTER HOURS:
1. Robinhood, $HOOD: -10%
2. AppLovin, $APP: -9%
3. Palantir, $PLTR: -8%
4. Tesla, $TSLA: -6%
5. Amazon, $AMZN: -6%
6. Nvidia, $NVDA: -5%
7. AMD, $AMD: -5%
8. Broadcom, $AVGO: -5%
9. Meta, $META: -5%
10. Alphabet, $GOOGL: -4%
The S&P 500 is now set to erased $2 trillion at the open tomorrow.
The Nasdaq 100 is on track to open just 3% away from entering its first bear market since 2022.
Buckle up.
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TECH STOCKS AFTER HOURS:
1. Robinhood, $HOOD: -10%
2. AppLovin, $APP: -9%
3. Palantir, $PLTR: -8%
4. Tesla, $TSLA: -6%
5. Amazon, $AMZN: -6%
6. Nvidia, $NVDA: -5%
7. AMD, $AMD: -5%
8. Broadcom, $AVGO: -5%
9. Meta, $META: -5%
10. Alphabet, $GOOGL: -4%
The S&P 500 is now set to erased $2 trillion at the open tomorrow.
The Nasdaq 100 is on track to open just 3% away from entering its first bear market since 2022.
Buckle up.
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Crypto markets have now erased -$200 billion in market cap since their after hours high. https://t.co/6cbIOugaSK
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BREAKING: Crypto markets have now erased -$200 billion in market cap since their after hours high. https://t.co/6cbIOugaSK
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Nasdaq 100 is now down -15% since:
1. Jamie Dimon sold $234M of JP Morgan stock, $JPM
2. Warren Buffett reported a record $334B cash balance
Buffet and Dimon win again. Are they buying yet?
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The Nasdaq 100 is now down -15% since:
1. Jamie Dimon sold $234M of JP Morgan stock, $JPM
2. Warren Buffett reported a record $334B cash balance
Buffet and Dimon win again. Are they buying yet?
This is absolutely insane:
On February 20th, JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon sold $234 million worth of $JPM stock.
On February 22nd, Warren Buffett announced a record $334 BILLION cash balance.
12 days later, the Nasdaq 100 crashed -11%.
How did they know?
(a thread) https://t.co/xbzHVWkAlI tweet
The All-In Podcast
🤠all-in LIVE from austin with special guests!🤠
@jason and @friedberg are joined by:
-- @ColinandSamir
-- @ChrisWillx
-- @bryan_johnson
topics:
📺 breaking down the creator economy
📈 scaling a content business
💰 monetizing + biz models for creators
✍️ advice for up and comers
++ much more!
(0:00) friedberg and jason are live from austin!
(2:51) how building an audience has impacted the besties
(11:15) colin and samir join the besties!
(12:01) evolution of short-form and long-form content
(22:18) business models for creatives
(35:04) advice to up and coming creators
(42:10) chris williamson joins the besties!
(50:17) making it seem effortless
(57:47) monetizing content
(1:05:02) scaling a one-man show
(1:19:15) bryan johnson joins the besties!
(1:20:13) spotify’s move to video
(1:21:21) bryan’s ketamine experience
(1:28:03) creators and value props
(1:36:52) issues with the us food industry
(1:43:10) top tips for healthy living
thanks to our partners for making this happen:
-- @gemini: https://t.co/inOdTdXC9i
-- @function: https://t.co/j1Z6TZUJka (use gift code ALLIN100 for $100 off membership - limited to the first 1K listeners)
-- @niagenplus: https://t.co/n6kmd4PgAN
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🤠all-in LIVE from austin with special guests!🤠
@jason and @friedberg are joined by:
-- @ColinandSamir
-- @ChrisWillx
-- @bryan_johnson
topics:
📺 breaking down the creator economy
📈 scaling a content business
💰 monetizing + biz models for creators
✍️ advice for up and comers
++ much more!
(0:00) friedberg and jason are live from austin!
(2:51) how building an audience has impacted the besties
(11:15) colin and samir join the besties!
(12:01) evolution of short-form and long-form content
(22:18) business models for creatives
(35:04) advice to up and coming creators
(42:10) chris williamson joins the besties!
(50:17) making it seem effortless
(57:47) monetizing content
(1:05:02) scaling a one-man show
(1:19:15) bryan johnson joins the besties!
(1:20:13) spotify’s move to video
(1:21:21) bryan’s ketamine experience
(1:28:03) creators and value props
(1:36:52) issues with the us food industry
(1:43:10) top tips for healthy living
thanks to our partners for making this happen:
-- @gemini: https://t.co/inOdTdXC9i
-- @function: https://t.co/j1Z6TZUJka (use gift code ALLIN100 for $100 off membership - limited to the first 1K listeners)
-- @niagenplus: https://t.co/n6kmd4PgAN
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: China urges the US to "immediately" cancel reciprocal tariffs or they will take "counter-measures."
Reciprocal tariffs on reciprocal tariffs should begin within the next 24 hours.
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BREAKING: China urges the US to "immediately" cancel reciprocal tariffs or they will take "counter-measures."
Reciprocal tariffs on reciprocal tariffs should begin within the next 24 hours.
"Reciprocal tariffs" are officially HERE:
President Trump just announced tariffs on 185 countries AT ONCE, one of the largest tariffs in US history.
S&P 500 futures erased -$2 TRILLION of market cap in under 15 minutes.
What just happened? Let us explain.
(a thread) https://t.co/S4pmsDweNB tweet
Offshore
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The Kobeissi Letter
After 3+ years of compounding inflation:
2025 is the year when President Trump, Fed Chair Powell, and Treasury Secretary Bessent all came to the same conclusion.
A recession is the only remaining way for inflation AND rates to fall. https://t.co/mZzdNcoLEJ
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After 3+ years of compounding inflation:
2025 is the year when President Trump, Fed Chair Powell, and Treasury Secretary Bessent all came to the same conclusion.
A recession is the only remaining way for inflation AND rates to fall. https://t.co/mZzdNcoLEJ
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