Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
WOW.
The Atlanta Fed has just revised their Q1 2025 GDP estimate lower AGAIN, to -3.7%.
Adjusting for gold imports and exports, the Atlanta Fed now sees -1.4% GDP contraction in Q1 2025.
Just 2 months ago, they saw GDP growing by +3.8% in the same period.
The revision was due to recent economic data which has shown a slowdown in spending.
Is the Atlanta Fed calling for a recession?
tweet
WOW.
The Atlanta Fed has just revised their Q1 2025 GDP estimate lower AGAIN, to -3.7%.
Adjusting for gold imports and exports, the Atlanta Fed now sees -1.4% GDP contraction in Q1 2025.
Just 2 months ago, they saw GDP growing by +3.8% in the same period.
The revision was due to recent economic data which has shown a slowdown in spending.
Is the Atlanta Fed calling for a recession?
Markets are pricing-in a recession:
Over the last 11 weeks, the 10-year note yield has fallen 65 basis points in a massive reversal.
Meanwhile, 1 and 3-month annualized inflation metrics have risen to 4%+.
Rates are FALLING while inflation is RISING.
(a thread) https://t.co/aArmFNuLIi tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
Q1 2025 was a tough quarter for US stocks:
The S&P 500 underperformed global stocks by 9.6 percentage points in Q1, the biggest quarterly margin since 2009.
The S&P 500 dropped -4.6% in Q1 2025, the most since Q2 2022.
At the same time, the MSCI All Country World Index excluding the US gained +5.0%.
This is a sharp reversal from Q4 2024 when the S&P 500 outperformed global stocks by 10 percentage points, the most since 2008.
Market sentiment has rapidly shifted as recession concerns have surged.
Brace for another volatile quarter.
tweet
Q1 2025 was a tough quarter for US stocks:
The S&P 500 underperformed global stocks by 9.6 percentage points in Q1, the biggest quarterly margin since 2009.
The S&P 500 dropped -4.6% in Q1 2025, the most since Q2 2022.
At the same time, the MSCI All Country World Index excluding the US gained +5.0%.
This is a sharp reversal from Q4 2024 when the S&P 500 outperformed global stocks by 10 percentage points, the most since 2008.
Market sentiment has rapidly shifted as recession concerns have surged.
Brace for another volatile quarter.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Finding Compounders
Another great piece by Michael Burry
- Finding Value in Fast Food(1998)
Here he analyses Tricon Global- now known as Yum Brands
He goes through analysing Spin Offs- what should we look for? https://t.co/JjrYBOBxhD
tweet
Another great piece by Michael Burry
- Finding Value in Fast Food(1998)
Here he analyses Tricon Global- now known as Yum Brands
He goes through analysing Spin Offs- what should we look for? https://t.co/JjrYBOBxhD
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Job postings on Indeed dropped -10% year-over-year last week to the lowest in 4 years.
Over the last 3 years, job postings have declined -33%.
As a result, available vacancies are just 8% above pre-pandemic levels.
Additionally, NEW job postings have dropped -40% since February 2022 to near the lowest since December 2020.
Data provided by Indeed has been a leading indicator for the BLS-provided job openings data, suggesting more weakness ahead.
The labor market is deteriorating.
tweet
BREAKING: Job postings on Indeed dropped -10% year-over-year last week to the lowest in 4 years.
Over the last 3 years, job postings have declined -33%.
As a result, available vacancies are just 8% above pre-pandemic levels.
Additionally, NEW job postings have dropped -40% since February 2022 to near the lowest since December 2020.
Data provided by Indeed has been a leading indicator for the BLS-provided job openings data, suggesting more weakness ahead.
The labor market is deteriorating.
Markets are pricing-in a recession:
Over the last 11 weeks, the 10-year note yield has fallen 65 basis points in a massive reversal.
Meanwhile, 1 and 3-month annualized inflation metrics have risen to 4%+.
Rates are FALLING while inflation is RISING.
(a thread) https://t.co/aArmFNuLIi tweet
Offshore
Photo
Quiver Quantitative
Germany just sent 5,000 troops to be stationed on NATO's eastern flank, in Lithuania.
This is its first permanent foreign troop deployment since World War II.
Last year, we noticed a US politician buying stock in a German arms manufacturer.
The stock is now up 151% since: https://t.co/1yeGq69GOe
tweet
Germany just sent 5,000 troops to be stationed on NATO's eastern flank, in Lithuania.
This is its first permanent foreign troop deployment since World War II.
Last year, we noticed a US politician buying stock in a German arms manufacturer.
The stock is now up 151% since: https://t.co/1yeGq69GOe
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
The US economic policy uncertainty index hit its highest level in history, how did the market perform following previous spikes?
Following the 2020 uncertainty surge, the S&P 500 rallied +63.3% over the next 12 months.
The second-highest return was seen after February 2009 when the market gained +50.3%.
On the other hand, in the wake of economic policy uncertainty spikes in 2001 and 2008, the market dropped -17.0% and -9.4%, respectively.
In most occurrences, however, the S&P 500 saw double-digit returns within a year.
High policy uncertainty usually provides long-term buying opportunities.
tweet
The US economic policy uncertainty index hit its highest level in history, how did the market perform following previous spikes?
Following the 2020 uncertainty surge, the S&P 500 rallied +63.3% over the next 12 months.
The second-highest return was seen after February 2009 when the market gained +50.3%.
On the other hand, in the wake of economic policy uncertainty spikes in 2001 and 2008, the market dropped -17.0% and -9.4%, respectively.
In most occurrences, however, the S&P 500 saw double-digit returns within a year.
High policy uncertainty usually provides long-term buying opportunities.
Markets are pricing-in a recession:
Over the last 11 weeks, the 10-year note yield has fallen 65 basis points in a massive reversal.
Meanwhile, 1 and 3-month annualized inflation metrics have risen to 4%+.
Rates are FALLING while inflation is RISING.
(a thread) https://t.co/aArmFNuLIi tweet
Offshore
Video
Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Nine Republicans just voted with House Democrats to allow proxy voting by new parents in Congress.
Speaker Mike Johnson just announced that the House isn't holding any more votes this week: https://t.co/F2F1hw1nAR
tweet
BREAKING: Nine Republicans just voted with House Democrats to allow proxy voting by new parents in Congress.
Speaker Mike Johnson just announced that the House isn't holding any more votes this week: https://t.co/F2F1hw1nAR
tweet