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App Economy Insights
RT @VoronoiApp: March's Most Popular Creator ✏️
@EconomyApp breaks down the finances of the world's biggest companies—including the Magnificent Seven—through stunning visuals 🖥️
Explore all their work on Voronoi: https://t.co/nbryO7VNB6 https://t.co/Xtsp4Wzpde
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RT @VoronoiApp: March's Most Popular Creator ✏️
@EconomyApp breaks down the finances of the world's biggest companies—including the Magnificent Seven—through stunning visuals 🖥️
Explore all their work on Voronoi: https://t.co/nbryO7VNB6 https://t.co/Xtsp4Wzpde
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Offshore
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Mexico's President says their response to US tariffs will be announced on Thursday, April 3rd.
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BREAKING: Mexico's President says their response to US tariffs will be announced on Thursday, April 3rd.
It's officially "reciprocal tariff" week:
President Trump has called Wednesday "Liberation Day" with 20%+ tariffs coming on up to 25+ countries.
US tariffs will impact $1.5+ TRILLION worth of imports by the end of April.
Here's what you need to know.
(a thread) https://t.co/WnaIVcApl0 tweet
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The Kobeissi Letter
Bond investors are worried:
The 2-year breakeven inflation rate has jumped to 3.27%, the highest since the March 2023 Banking Crisis.
In other words, the market expects inflation to exceed 3.0% over the next 2 years.
The 2-year inflation breakeven has more than DOUBLED since the "Fed pivot" of September 2024.
This all comes as long-term inflation expectations have risen to 4.1%, the highest since 1993.
Americans’ 1-year inflation expectations have surged from 2.6% to 5.0% in under 3 months, reaching their highest level since November 2022.
A recession is becoming more likely.
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Bond investors are worried:
The 2-year breakeven inflation rate has jumped to 3.27%, the highest since the March 2023 Banking Crisis.
In other words, the market expects inflation to exceed 3.0% over the next 2 years.
The 2-year inflation breakeven has more than DOUBLED since the "Fed pivot" of September 2024.
This all comes as long-term inflation expectations have risen to 4.1%, the highest since 1993.
Americans’ 1-year inflation expectations have surged from 2.6% to 5.0% in under 3 months, reaching their highest level since November 2022.
A recession is becoming more likely.
Markets are pricing-in a recession:
Over the last 11 weeks, the 10-year note yield has fallen 65 basis points in a massive reversal.
Meanwhile, 1 and 3-month annualized inflation metrics have risen to 4%+.
Rates are FALLING while inflation is RISING.
(a thread) https://t.co/aArmFNuLIi tweet
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Finding Compounders
RT @gainify_io: Market’s sleeping on this cash machine - $PYPL
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RT @gainify_io: Market’s sleeping on this cash machine - $PYPL
PayPal $PYPL at a 12.3% FCF yield is REALLY REALLY hard to ignore...
This means you are getting a 12% return on your dollars invested annually if they did not grow at all. PayPal can use this cash flow to pay dividends, reinvest into the business, pay down debt or do buybacks.
They are doing LOADS of buybacks right now and at this cheap of a valuation it's very value-accretive. tweet
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Hidden Value Gems
Just sent out my piece on Evolution to the Premium subscribers. Focusing on the downside risks and regulatory changes.
Off to Madrid tomorrow for the Value Spain conference, and then 10 days in Tenerife ✈️🌴
$EVO.ST $EVVTY https://t.co/R0aBOSVc7E
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Just sent out my piece on Evolution to the Premium subscribers. Focusing on the downside risks and regulatory changes.
Off to Madrid tomorrow for the Value Spain conference, and then 10 days in Tenerife ✈️🌴
$EVO.ST $EVVTY https://t.co/R0aBOSVc7E
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The Kobeissi Letter
WOW.
The Atlanta Fed has just revised their Q1 2025 GDP estimate lower AGAIN, to -3.7%.
Adjusting for gold imports and exports, the Atlanta Fed now sees -1.4% GDP contraction in Q1 2025.
Just 2 months ago, they saw GDP growing by +3.8% in the same period.
The revision was due to recent economic data which has shown a slowdown in spending.
Is the Atlanta Fed calling for a recession?
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WOW.
The Atlanta Fed has just revised their Q1 2025 GDP estimate lower AGAIN, to -3.7%.
Adjusting for gold imports and exports, the Atlanta Fed now sees -1.4% GDP contraction in Q1 2025.
Just 2 months ago, they saw GDP growing by +3.8% in the same period.
The revision was due to recent economic data which has shown a slowdown in spending.
Is the Atlanta Fed calling for a recession?
Markets are pricing-in a recession:
Over the last 11 weeks, the 10-year note yield has fallen 65 basis points in a massive reversal.
Meanwhile, 1 and 3-month annualized inflation metrics have risen to 4%+.
Rates are FALLING while inflation is RISING.
(a thread) https://t.co/aArmFNuLIi tweet
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The Kobeissi Letter
Q1 2025 was a tough quarter for US stocks:
The S&P 500 underperformed global stocks by 9.6 percentage points in Q1, the biggest quarterly margin since 2009.
The S&P 500 dropped -4.6% in Q1 2025, the most since Q2 2022.
At the same time, the MSCI All Country World Index excluding the US gained +5.0%.
This is a sharp reversal from Q4 2024 when the S&P 500 outperformed global stocks by 10 percentage points, the most since 2008.
Market sentiment has rapidly shifted as recession concerns have surged.
Brace for another volatile quarter.
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Q1 2025 was a tough quarter for US stocks:
The S&P 500 underperformed global stocks by 9.6 percentage points in Q1, the biggest quarterly margin since 2009.
The S&P 500 dropped -4.6% in Q1 2025, the most since Q2 2022.
At the same time, the MSCI All Country World Index excluding the US gained +5.0%.
This is a sharp reversal from Q4 2024 when the S&P 500 outperformed global stocks by 10 percentage points, the most since 2008.
Market sentiment has rapidly shifted as recession concerns have surged.
Brace for another volatile quarter.
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