The Kobeissi Letter
KEY EVENTS THIS WEEK:
1. ISM Manufacturing PMI data - Tuesday
2. JOLTS Job Openings Data - Tuesday
3. President Trump's "Liberation Day" - Wednesday
4. ADP Nonfarm Employment data - Thursday
5. March Jobs Report - Friday
6. Fed Chair Powell Speaks - Friday
We are expecting the most volatile week of 2025 so far.
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KEY EVENTS THIS WEEK:
1. ISM Manufacturing PMI data - Tuesday
2. JOLTS Job Openings Data - Tuesday
3. President Trump's "Liberation Day" - Wednesday
4. ADP Nonfarm Employment data - Thursday
5. March Jobs Report - Friday
6. Fed Chair Powell Speaks - Friday
We are expecting the most volatile week of 2025 so far.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Finding Compounders
One should take note of customers bargaining power when analyzing a business
Source : Good Stocks Cheap( https://t.co/mp55X8xaWx) https://t.co/uO2c2Qiei6
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One should take note of customers bargaining power when analyzing a business
Source : Good Stocks Cheap( https://t.co/mp55X8xaWx) https://t.co/uO2c2Qiei6
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Offshore
Video
The All-In Podcast
The AI Cold War: USA🇺🇸 vs China🇨🇳
On E221, the besties discussed how US efforts to impede China’s AI progress by restricting GPU exports are producing unintended consequences.
@chamath:
"The US government is really trying to make sure that these next-gen GPUs don't go directly to China, but also don't go to countries that could then redirect them into China."
@GavinSBaker:
" We're putting enough friction into the system that it does theoretically give America an advantage at the cost of creating tremendous incentives for China to develop their own semiconductor ecosystem and ... you know, necessity is the mother of innovation."
" These export controls are creating an immense incentive for China to be really algorithmically innovative."
"And you saw that with DeepSeek where there were some real algorithmic innovations."
@Jason:
" Said another way, if we squeeze too tightly on letting them buy the Nvidia chips, they might make a better Nvidia."
Chamath:
"They're trying now."
Jason:
"What are the chances they succeed in your mind, Gavin?"
Gavin:
" In the next five years, I think zero. I think it's really, really hard."
"But over ten years, who knows?"
tweet
The AI Cold War: USA🇺🇸 vs China🇨🇳
On E221, the besties discussed how US efforts to impede China’s AI progress by restricting GPU exports are producing unintended consequences.
@chamath:
"The US government is really trying to make sure that these next-gen GPUs don't go directly to China, but also don't go to countries that could then redirect them into China."
@GavinSBaker:
" We're putting enough friction into the system that it does theoretically give America an advantage at the cost of creating tremendous incentives for China to develop their own semiconductor ecosystem and ... you know, necessity is the mother of innovation."
" These export controls are creating an immense incentive for China to be really algorithmically innovative."
"And you saw that with DeepSeek where there were some real algorithmic innovations."
@Jason:
" Said another way, if we squeeze too tightly on letting them buy the Nvidia chips, they might make a better Nvidia."
Chamath:
"They're trying now."
Jason:
"What are the chances they succeed in your mind, Gavin?"
Gavin:
" In the next five years, I think zero. I think it's really, really hard."
"But over ten years, who knows?"
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Offshore
Photo
AkhenOsiris
Silicon valley bros finally changing their tune... before was tariff shmarrif and all about dereg and tax cuts...hear those anymore?
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Silicon valley bros finally changing their tune... before was tariff shmarrif and all about dereg and tax cuts...hear those anymore?
The Trump economic detox correctly reduces gov’t spending & re-balances U.S. trade BUT CEOs are worried about economic shock therapy that causes massive uncertainty & risks recession. $1 T tariffs + $1 T budget cuts in 2025/2026 will send markets / economy lower. 🇺🇸🫡 - Brad Gerstnertweet
Offshore
Photo
Finding Compounders
RT @gainify_io: In a shaky market, $JNJ is up ~14% YTD — outperforming the S&P by 20pts.
It’s also one of the strongest dividend names out there:
🏆Decades of consistency
🧾48% payout ratio
📈3.1% yield
Is $JNJ the ultimate defensive dividend stock for 2025? https://t.co/zuN9E86MvF
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RT @gainify_io: In a shaky market, $JNJ is up ~14% YTD — outperforming the S&P by 20pts.
It’s also one of the strongest dividend names out there:
🏆Decades of consistency
🧾48% payout ratio
📈3.1% yield
Is $JNJ the ultimate defensive dividend stock for 2025? https://t.co/zuN9E86MvF
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Offshore
Video
The All-In Podcast
ALL-IN SUMMIT 2025 - APPLY NOW! 🎉
the world's greatest conference returns.
⏲️when: september 7-9
🌅where: los angeles, ca
✅apply: https://t.co/AWcgvLf2yZ
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ALL-IN SUMMIT 2025 - APPLY NOW! 🎉
the world's greatest conference returns.
⏲️when: september 7-9
🌅where: los angeles, ca
✅apply: https://t.co/AWcgvLf2yZ
tweet
Offshore
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The Kobeissi Letter
It's officially "reciprocal tariff" week:
President Trump has called Wednesday "Liberation Day" with 20%+ tariffs coming on up to 25+ countries.
US tariffs will impact $1.5+ TRILLION worth of imports by the end of April.
Here's what you need to know.
(a thread) https://t.co/WnaIVcApl0
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It's officially "reciprocal tariff" week:
President Trump has called Wednesday "Liberation Day" with 20%+ tariffs coming on up to 25+ countries.
US tariffs will impact $1.5+ TRILLION worth of imports by the end of April.
Here's what you need to know.
(a thread) https://t.co/WnaIVcApl0
tweet