Offshore
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โ The Kobeissi Letter
This is absolutely insane:
From Wednesday to Friday, the S&P 500 lost -$100 billion PER trading hour for a total of -$2 TRILLION.
Then, after the market closed on Friday, S&P 500 futures erased ANOTHER -$120 billion in minutes.
What happened? Let us explain.
(a thread) https://t.co/Rc1GCF1876
tweet
This is absolutely insane:
From Wednesday to Friday, the S&P 500 lost -$100 billion PER trading hour for a total of -$2 TRILLION.
Then, after the market closed on Friday, S&P 500 futures erased ANOTHER -$120 billion in minutes.
What happened? Let us explain.
(a thread) https://t.co/Rc1GCF1876
tweet
Offshore
Photo
โ App Economy Insights
๐ This Week in Visuals:
๐ง๐ป $LULU Lululemon: Soft Outlook
๐ถ $CHWY Chewy: Autoship Unleashed
๐ฎ $GME GameStop: Bitcoin To The Rescue
https://t.co/5YgDFUj9i9
tweet
๐ This Week in Visuals:
๐ง๐ป $LULU Lululemon: Soft Outlook
๐ถ $CHWY Chewy: Autoship Unleashed
๐ฎ $GME GameStop: Bitcoin To The Rescue
https://t.co/5YgDFUj9i9
tweet
Offshore
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โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $MELI ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 44.66x
โข1-Year Mean: 47.97x
As you can see, $MELI appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~7% MORE in earnings per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $MELI is a great business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Short-Term Inv: $3.70B
โขLong-Term Debt: $2.82B
$MELI has a strong balance sheet, an ok BB+ S&P Credit Rating & 48x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL๐โก๏ธโ
โข2019: (4.8%)
โข2020: 3.7%
โข2021: 8.1%
โข2022: 14.7%
โข2023: 25.7%
โข2024: 23.0%
RETURN ON EQUITY๐โก๏ธโ
โข2019: (14.2%)
โข2020: (0.1%)
โข2021: 5.2%
โข2022: 28.7%
โข2023: 40.3%
โข2024: 51.5%
$MELI has strong and improved return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2019: $2.30B
โข2024: $20.78B
โขCAGR: 55.30%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2019: $314.29M
โข2024: $7.05B
โขCAGR: 86.32%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2019: ($3.71)
โข2024: $37.69
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2019 Shares Outstanding: 48.69M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 50.70M
MARGINS๐โก๏ธโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 52.7%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 12.7%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 9.2%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~7% MORE in EPS
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $MELI has to grow earnings at a 22.33% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (22.33%) required growth rate:
2025E: $46.91 (24.5% YoY)
2026E: $64.98 (38.5% YoY)
2027E: $84.98 (30.8% YoY)
$MELI has an ok track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but letโs assume $MELI ends 2027 with $84.98 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
40x P/E: $3400๐ต โฆ ~17.6% CAGR
38x P/E: $3230๐ต โฆ ~15.4% CAGR
36x P/E: $3060๐ต โฆ ~13.2% CAGR
34x P/E: $2890๐ต โฆ ~10.9% CAGR
As you can see, $MELI appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >36x earnings (a multiple justified by its growth rate & moat)
$MELI boasts an expansive growth trajectory, fueled by powerful network effects that should drive sustained momentum
Key factors contributing to its promising outlook include ๐
1. Margin expansion
2. Unparalleled access to Latin America's burgeoning economy
3. Network effects that produce self-reinforcing dynamics ensuring long-term competitiveness, among other things
Those buying $MELI today at $2165๐ต are buying it for a fair price, with little margin of safety โ however, these growth rates have to be revised down substantially for $MELI to miss the mark, even if the company grows earnings at 25% CAGR over the next 5 years, shareholders will likely end up with a decent return
I consider $MELI a strong buy closer to $1945๐ต (~10% below todayโs price) where I can reasonably expect ~12% CAGR while assuming a conservative 32x end multiple, ensuring some margin of safety
#stocks #investing
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๏ฟฝ[...]
RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $MELI ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 44.66x
โข1-Year Mean: 47.97x
As you can see, $MELI appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~7% MORE in earnings per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $MELI is a great business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Short-Term Inv: $3.70B
โขLong-Term Debt: $2.82B
$MELI has a strong balance sheet, an ok BB+ S&P Credit Rating & 48x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL๐โก๏ธโ
โข2019: (4.8%)
โข2020: 3.7%
โข2021: 8.1%
โข2022: 14.7%
โข2023: 25.7%
โข2024: 23.0%
RETURN ON EQUITY๐โก๏ธโ
โข2019: (14.2%)
โข2020: (0.1%)
โข2021: 5.2%
โข2022: 28.7%
โข2023: 40.3%
โข2024: 51.5%
$MELI has strong and improved return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2019: $2.30B
โข2024: $20.78B
โขCAGR: 55.30%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2019: $314.29M
โข2024: $7.05B
โขCAGR: 86.32%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2019: ($3.71)
โข2024: $37.69
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2019 Shares Outstanding: 48.69M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 50.70M
MARGINS๐โก๏ธโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 52.7%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 12.7%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 9.2%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~7% MORE in EPS
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $MELI has to grow earnings at a 22.33% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (22.33%) required growth rate:
2025E: $46.91 (24.5% YoY)
2026E: $64.98 (38.5% YoY)
2027E: $84.98 (30.8% YoY)
$MELI has an ok track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but letโs assume $MELI ends 2027 with $84.98 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
40x P/E: $3400๐ต โฆ ~17.6% CAGR
38x P/E: $3230๐ต โฆ ~15.4% CAGR
36x P/E: $3060๐ต โฆ ~13.2% CAGR
34x P/E: $2890๐ต โฆ ~10.9% CAGR
As you can see, $MELI appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >36x earnings (a multiple justified by its growth rate & moat)
$MELI boasts an expansive growth trajectory, fueled by powerful network effects that should drive sustained momentum
Key factors contributing to its promising outlook include ๐
1. Margin expansion
2. Unparalleled access to Latin America's burgeoning economy
3. Network effects that produce self-reinforcing dynamics ensuring long-term competitiveness, among other things
Those buying $MELI today at $2165๐ต are buying it for a fair price, with little margin of safety โ however, these growth rates have to be revised down substantially for $MELI to miss the mark, even if the company grows earnings at 25% CAGR over the next 5 years, shareholders will likely end up with a decent return
I consider $MELI a strong buy closer to $1945๐ต (~10% below todayโs price) where I can reasonably expect ~12% CAGR while assuming a conservative 32x end multiple, ensuring some margin of safety
#stocks #investing
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๏ฟฝ[...]
Offshore
โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $MELI ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ โขNTM P/E Ratio: 44.66x โข1-Year Mean: 47.97x As you can see, $MELI appears to be trading near fair value Going forward, investors can receive ~7% MORE inโฆ
๏ฟฝ ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
tweet
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Offshore
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โ The Kobeissi Letter
The market no longer believes the Fed:
Since the "Fed pivot" began in September 2024, market-based inflation expectations have more than DOUBLED.
In fact, markets now see +3.3% inflation over the next 2 years, the highest since March 2023.
Has the Fed lost its credibility? https://t.co/KWjK2LekQM
tweet
The market no longer believes the Fed:
Since the "Fed pivot" began in September 2024, market-based inflation expectations have more than DOUBLED.
In fact, markets now see +3.3% inflation over the next 2 years, the highest since March 2023.
Has the Fed lost its credibility? https://t.co/KWjK2LekQM
This is absolutely insane:
From Wednesday to Friday, the S&P 500 lost -$100 billion PER trading hour for a total of -$2 TRILLION.
Then, after the market closed on Friday, S&P 500 futures erased ANOTHER -$120 billion in minutes.
What happened? Let us explain.
(a thread) https://t.co/Rc1GCF1876 tweet
Offshore
Photo
โ The Kobeissi Letter
How hot is inflation?
1, 3, and 6-month annualized Headline AND Core PCE inflation are now all above +3.0%.
1-month annualized Core PCE inflation is now running at a whopping +4.5%.
This is 250 basis points ABOVE the Fed's long-run target, all as the Atlanta Fed now sees -0.5% GDP contraction in Q1 2025.
Truly incredible.
tweet
How hot is inflation?
1, 3, and 6-month annualized Headline AND Core PCE inflation are now all above +3.0%.
1-month annualized Core PCE inflation is now running at a whopping +4.5%.
This is 250 basis points ABOVE the Fed's long-run target, all as the Atlanta Fed now sees -0.5% GDP contraction in Q1 2025.
Truly incredible.
This is absolutely insane:
From Wednesday to Friday, the S&P 500 lost -$100 billion PER trading hour for a total of -$2 TRILLION.
Then, after the market closed on Friday, S&P 500 futures erased ANOTHER -$120 billion in minutes.
What happened? Let us explain.
(a thread) https://t.co/Rc1GCF1876 tweet
Offshore
Photo
โ Investing visuals
How you can tell that $ASML is a cyclical business๐ https://t.co/05Y11qXIx6
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How you can tell that $ASML is a cyclical business๐ https://t.co/05Y11qXIx6
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Offshore
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โ The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Hedge funds sold the second-largest amount of global technology stocks in 5 years this week, according to Goldman Sachs data.
This was only smaller than the early August 2024 sell-off.
The most activity was seen in US tech which accounted for 75% of the net selling.
Not even the early stages of the 2022 bear market experienced such a rapid exit from these stocks.
The sector has led this quarterโs losses with the Nasdaq 100 index declining -13% over the last 6 weeks.
Hedge funds continue to dump Big Tech.
tweet
BREAKING: Hedge funds sold the second-largest amount of global technology stocks in 5 years this week, according to Goldman Sachs data.
This was only smaller than the early August 2024 sell-off.
The most activity was seen in US tech which accounted for 75% of the net selling.
Not even the early stages of the 2022 bear market experienced such a rapid exit from these stocks.
The sector has led this quarterโs losses with the Nasdaq 100 index declining -13% over the last 6 weeks.
Hedge funds continue to dump Big Tech.
tweet