Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate for Q1 2025 GDP has been lowered to -0.5%, NET of gold imports and exports.
Including gold, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate is down from +3.9% to -2.8% in under 3 months.
Why are they adjusting for gold?
Because we have seen depression-like purchases of physical gold in the US which are "skewing" the GDP estimates.
Regardless, the Atlanta Fed now sees GDP CONTRACTION in Q1 2025 for the first time since 2022.
Meanwhile, Core PCE inflation jumped to +2.8% this morning.
Stagflation has arrived.
tweet
BREAKING: The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate for Q1 2025 GDP has been lowered to -0.5%, NET of gold imports and exports.
Including gold, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate is down from +3.9% to -2.8% in under 3 months.
Why are they adjusting for gold?
Because we have seen depression-like purchases of physical gold in the US which are "skewing" the GDP estimates.
Regardless, the Atlanta Fed now sees GDP CONTRACTION in Q1 2025 for the first time since 2022.
Meanwhile, Core PCE inflation jumped to +2.8% this morning.
Stagflation has arrived.
There it is:
Long-term US inflation expectations have officially SURGED to 4.1%, the highest level since 1993.
Tariff front-running has led to a $300+ BILLION trade deficit in 2 months and consumer sentiment has collapsed.
Is stagflation ramping up?
(a thread) https://t.co/qI3aGSTqP1 tweet
Offshore
Photo
Finding Compounders
RT @gainify_io: After outperforming $TSLA by 90% YTD, $BYD still trades at just 1x 2026 sales.
Emerging EV leader — fully priced in or a clear opportunity? https://t.co/16q97Fd5KO
tweet
RT @gainify_io: After outperforming $TSLA by 90% YTD, $BYD still trades at just 1x 2026 sales.
Emerging EV leader — fully priced in or a clear opportunity? https://t.co/16q97Fd5KO
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: US stocks extend declines with the S&P 500 now down over -100 points on the day.
The Nasdaq 100 is down -445 points. https://t.co/dQNVbmrSq6
tweet
BREAKING: US stocks extend declines with the S&P 500 now down over -100 points on the day.
The Nasdaq 100 is down -445 points. https://t.co/dQNVbmrSq6
There it is:
Long-term US inflation expectations have officially SURGED to 4.1%, the highest level since 1993.
Tariff front-running has led to a $300+ BILLION trade deficit in 2 months and consumer sentiment has collapsed.
Is stagflation ramping up?
(a thread) https://t.co/qI3aGSTqP1 tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The Philadelphia Fed Services index tumbled 19.4 points in March, to -32.5, the lowest since the 2020 pandemic.
Excluding 2020, this is the worst reading in 14 years.
The new orders index declined 18.2 points, to -19.5, the lowest since April 2023.
Prices paid jumped 12.6 points, to 36.0, the highest in ~18 months.
The worst part?
6-month outlook from services firms dropped a whopping 36.0 points, to -16.3, the second-lowest level on record.
To put this into perspective, the 2020 pandemic low was roughly -19.5 points.
Stagflation is here.
tweet
BREAKING: The Philadelphia Fed Services index tumbled 19.4 points in March, to -32.5, the lowest since the 2020 pandemic.
Excluding 2020, this is the worst reading in 14 years.
The new orders index declined 18.2 points, to -19.5, the lowest since April 2023.
Prices paid jumped 12.6 points, to 36.0, the highest in ~18 months.
The worst part?
6-month outlook from services firms dropped a whopping 36.0 points, to -16.3, the second-lowest level on record.
To put this into perspective, the 2020 pandemic low was roughly -19.5 points.
Stagflation is here.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The S&P 500 extends its decline to more than -2% on the day, erasing $1 trillion of market cap. https://t.co/yQAbQsrsqz
tweet
BREAKING: The S&P 500 extends its decline to more than -2% on the day, erasing $1 trillion of market cap. https://t.co/yQAbQsrsqz
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Healthy Secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr. is pushing for a ban on soda being purchased with food stamps. https://t.co/qZMqatwLNH
tweet
BREAKING: Healthy Secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr. is pushing for a ban on soda being purchased with food stamps. https://t.co/qZMqatwLNH
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
Gold is making history:
Gold prices have hit 50 all-time highs over the last 12 months, its best streak in 12 years.
This is also the 3rd-longest streak on record after a historic run during the late 1970s.
The 1970s came with a period of double-digit inflation, stagnant economic growth and a high unemployment rate, also known as stagflation.
As a result, gold prices recorded 4 consecutive yearly gains.
This time, gold prices have rallied 39% over the last 12 months, are up 16% year-to-date, and are on track for the 3rd annual positive performance.
Is gold pricing in stagflation?
tweet
Gold is making history:
Gold prices have hit 50 all-time highs over the last 12 months, its best streak in 12 years.
This is also the 3rd-longest streak on record after a historic run during the late 1970s.
The 1970s came with a period of double-digit inflation, stagnant economic growth and a high unemployment rate, also known as stagflation.
As a result, gold prices recorded 4 consecutive yearly gains.
This time, gold prices have rallied 39% over the last 12 months, are up 16% year-to-date, and are on track for the 3rd annual positive performance.
Is gold pricing in stagflation?
tweet