Offshore
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โ The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The S&P 500 falls over -1.5% toward 5,600 and now stands just 75 points away from re-entering correction territory. https://t.co/SkGIljduLh
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BREAKING: The S&P 500 falls over -1.5% toward 5,600 and now stands just 75 points away from re-entering correction territory. https://t.co/SkGIljduLh
There it is:
Long-term US inflation expectations have officially SURGED to 4.1%, the highest level since 1993.
Tariff front-running has led to a $300+ BILLION trade deficit in 2 months and consumer sentiment has collapsed.
Is stagflation ramping up?
(a thread) https://t.co/qI3aGSTqP1 tweet
Offshore
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โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $AMZN ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/OCF Ratio: 14.53x
โข5-Year Mean: 22.57x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 2.43%
โข5-Year Mean: 2.70%
As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued using P/OCF
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~55% MORE in operating cash flow & ~10% LESS in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $AMZN is a quality business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Equivalents: $101.20B
โขLong-Term Debt: $59.72B
$AMZN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA S&P Credit Rating & 48x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL๐ / โ
โข2020: 11.6%
โข2021: 8.9%
โข2022: 4.2%
โข2023: 10.1%
โข2024: 15.5%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2020: 27.4%
โข2021: 28.8%
โข2022: (1.9%)
โข2023: 17.5%
โข2024: 24.3%
$AMZN has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2019: $280.52B
โข2024: $637.96B
โขCAGR: 17.85%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2019: $21.65B
โข2024: $38.22B
โขCAGR: 12.03%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2019: $1.15
โข2024: $5.53
โขCAGR: 36.90%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2019 Shares Outstanding: 10.08B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 10.72B
MARGINS๐โก๏ธโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 48.9%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 10.8%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 9.3%
*Important for $AMZN to continue expanding margins & increase profitability
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~55% MORE in OCF & ~10% LESS in FCF per share
We're using P/OCF instead of P/E. Historical data reveals a stronger correlation between AMZN's share price and Operating Cash Flow (OCF)
Today, analysts anticipate aggressive OCF (per share) growth between 2025 - 2027:
2025E: $13.50 (25% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $16.77 (24% YoY)
2027E: $19.46 (16% YoY)
$AMZN has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $AMZN ends 2027 with $19.46 in OCF per share & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples (photos attached below also include these CAGR estimates):
18x P/OCF: $350.28๐ต โฆ ~23.2% CAGR
17x P/OCF: $330.82๐ต โฆ ~20.6% CAGR
16x P/OCF: $311.36๐ต โฆ ~18.1% CAGR
15x P/OCF: $291.88๐ต โฆ ~15.3% CAGR
14x P/OCF: $272.44๐ต โฆ ~12.5% CAGR
As you can see, $AMZN appears to have aggressive double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~15x P/OCF, a multiple less than what itโs trading for today (a multiple it hasnโt traded for since 2010) & a multiple thatโs justified given its growth rate
Also check out $AMZN FCF growth estimates ๐
2025E: $50.46B (32% YoY)
2026E: $74.06B (47% YoY)
2027E: $108.96B (47% YoY)
AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN FY 2024:
โ๏ธAWS revenue: $107.55B
๐Ads revenue: $56.21B
Combined, these segments generated $163.76B net revenue โฆ with ~37% Operating Income Margin
Today at 196๐ต $AMZN appears to be a strong consideration for investment
#stocks #investing
Data: TIKR
Graphs: FAST Graphs
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๏ฟฝ[...]
RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $AMZN ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/OCF Ratio: 14.53x
โข5-Year Mean: 22.57x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 2.43%
โข5-Year Mean: 2.70%
As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued using P/OCF
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~55% MORE in operating cash flow & ~10% LESS in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $AMZN is a quality business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Equivalents: $101.20B
โขLong-Term Debt: $59.72B
$AMZN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA S&P Credit Rating & 48x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL๐ / โ
โข2020: 11.6%
โข2021: 8.9%
โข2022: 4.2%
โข2023: 10.1%
โข2024: 15.5%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2020: 27.4%
โข2021: 28.8%
โข2022: (1.9%)
โข2023: 17.5%
โข2024: 24.3%
$AMZN has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2019: $280.52B
โข2024: $637.96B
โขCAGR: 17.85%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2019: $21.65B
โข2024: $38.22B
โขCAGR: 12.03%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2019: $1.15
โข2024: $5.53
โขCAGR: 36.90%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2019 Shares Outstanding: 10.08B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 10.72B
MARGINS๐โก๏ธโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 48.9%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 10.8%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 9.3%
*Important for $AMZN to continue expanding margins & increase profitability
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~55% MORE in OCF & ~10% LESS in FCF per share
We're using P/OCF instead of P/E. Historical data reveals a stronger correlation between AMZN's share price and Operating Cash Flow (OCF)
Today, analysts anticipate aggressive OCF (per share) growth between 2025 - 2027:
2025E: $13.50 (25% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $16.77 (24% YoY)
2027E: $19.46 (16% YoY)
$AMZN has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $AMZN ends 2027 with $19.46 in OCF per share & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples (photos attached below also include these CAGR estimates):
18x P/OCF: $350.28๐ต โฆ ~23.2% CAGR
17x P/OCF: $330.82๐ต โฆ ~20.6% CAGR
16x P/OCF: $311.36๐ต โฆ ~18.1% CAGR
15x P/OCF: $291.88๐ต โฆ ~15.3% CAGR
14x P/OCF: $272.44๐ต โฆ ~12.5% CAGR
As you can see, $AMZN appears to have aggressive double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~15x P/OCF, a multiple less than what itโs trading for today (a multiple it hasnโt traded for since 2010) & a multiple thatโs justified given its growth rate
Also check out $AMZN FCF growth estimates ๐
2025E: $50.46B (32% YoY)
2026E: $74.06B (47% YoY)
2027E: $108.96B (47% YoY)
AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN FY 2024:
โ๏ธAWS revenue: $107.55B
๐Ads revenue: $56.21B
Combined, these segments generated $163.76B net revenue โฆ with ~37% Operating Income Margin
Today at 196๐ต $AMZN appears to be a strong consideration for investment
#stocks #investing
Data: TIKR
Graphs: FAST Graphs
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๏ฟฝ[...]
Offshore
โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $AMZN ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ โขNTM P/OCF Ratio: 14.53x โข5-Year Mean: 22.57x โขNTM FCF Yield: 2.43% โข5-Year Mean: 2.70% As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued using P/OCFโฆ
๏ฟฝ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
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Offshore
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โ The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate for Q1 2025 GDP has been lowered to -0.5%, NET of gold imports and exports.
Including gold, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate is down from +3.9% to -2.8% in under 3 months.
Why are they adjusting for gold?
Because we have seen depression-like purchases of physical gold in the US which are "skewing" the GDP estimates.
Regardless, the Atlanta Fed now sees GDP CONTRACTION in Q1 2025 for the first time since 2022.
Meanwhile, Core PCE inflation jumped to +2.8% this morning.
Stagflation has arrived.
tweet
BREAKING: The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate for Q1 2025 GDP has been lowered to -0.5%, NET of gold imports and exports.
Including gold, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate is down from +3.9% to -2.8% in under 3 months.
Why are they adjusting for gold?
Because we have seen depression-like purchases of physical gold in the US which are "skewing" the GDP estimates.
Regardless, the Atlanta Fed now sees GDP CONTRACTION in Q1 2025 for the first time since 2022.
Meanwhile, Core PCE inflation jumped to +2.8% this morning.
Stagflation has arrived.
There it is:
Long-term US inflation expectations have officially SURGED to 4.1%, the highest level since 1993.
Tariff front-running has led to a $300+ BILLION trade deficit in 2 months and consumer sentiment has collapsed.
Is stagflation ramping up?
(a thread) https://t.co/qI3aGSTqP1 tweet
Offshore
Photo
โ Finding Compounders
RT @gainify_io: After outperforming $TSLA by 90% YTD, $BYD still trades at just 1x 2026 sales.
Emerging EV leader โ fully priced in or a clear opportunity? https://t.co/16q97Fd5KO
tweet
RT @gainify_io: After outperforming $TSLA by 90% YTD, $BYD still trades at just 1x 2026 sales.
Emerging EV leader โ fully priced in or a clear opportunity? https://t.co/16q97Fd5KO
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Offshore
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โ The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: US stocks extend declines with the S&P 500 now down over -100 points on the day.
The Nasdaq 100 is down -445 points. https://t.co/dQNVbmrSq6
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BREAKING: US stocks extend declines with the S&P 500 now down over -100 points on the day.
The Nasdaq 100 is down -445 points. https://t.co/dQNVbmrSq6
There it is:
Long-term US inflation expectations have officially SURGED to 4.1%, the highest level since 1993.
Tariff front-running has led to a $300+ BILLION trade deficit in 2 months and consumer sentiment has collapsed.
Is stagflation ramping up?
(a thread) https://t.co/qI3aGSTqP1 tweet
Offshore
Photo
โ Investing visuals
$AMZN: Breakdown of their 5 main sources of revenue๐ https://t.co/Sc1LuzBDcX
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$AMZN: Breakdown of their 5 main sources of revenue๐ https://t.co/Sc1LuzBDcX
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Offshore
Photo
โ The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The Philadelphia Fed Services index tumbled 19.4 points in March, to -32.5, the lowest since the 2020 pandemic.
Excluding 2020, this is the worst reading in 14 years.
The new orders index declined 18.2 points, to -19.5, the lowest since April 2023.
Prices paid jumped 12.6 points, to 36.0, the highest in ~18 months.
The worst part?
6-month outlook from services firms dropped a whopping 36.0 points, to -16.3, the second-lowest level on record.
To put this into perspective, the 2020 pandemic low was roughly -19.5 points.
Stagflation is here.
tweet
BREAKING: The Philadelphia Fed Services index tumbled 19.4 points in March, to -32.5, the lowest since the 2020 pandemic.
Excluding 2020, this is the worst reading in 14 years.
The new orders index declined 18.2 points, to -19.5, the lowest since April 2023.
Prices paid jumped 12.6 points, to 36.0, the highest in ~18 months.
The worst part?
6-month outlook from services firms dropped a whopping 36.0 points, to -16.3, the second-lowest level on record.
To put this into perspective, the 2020 pandemic low was roughly -19.5 points.
Stagflation is here.
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