Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Senator Jeanne Shaheen has proposed a constitutional amendment to overturn Citizen's United.
This would ban companies from being able to spend unlimited money to influence elections.
Do you support this? https://t.co/1dgtYk1otQ
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JUST IN: Senator Jeanne Shaheen has proposed a constitutional amendment to overturn Citizen's United.
This would ban companies from being able to spend unlimited money to influence elections.
Do you support this? https://t.co/1dgtYk1otQ
tweet
Offshore
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The Kobeissi Letter
There it is:
Long-term US inflation expectations have officially SURGED to 4.1%, the highest level since 1993.
Tariff front-running has led to a $300+ BILLION trade deficit in 2 months and consumer sentiment has collapsed.
Is stagflation ramping up?
(a thread) https://t.co/qI3aGSTqP1
tweet
There it is:
Long-term US inflation expectations have officially SURGED to 4.1%, the highest level since 1993.
Tariff front-running has led to a $300+ BILLION trade deficit in 2 months and consumer sentiment has collapsed.
Is stagflation ramping up?
(a thread) https://t.co/qI3aGSTqP1
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Representative Robert Bresnahan just disclosed dozens of new stock trades.
Some of them are pretty interesting:
He is apparently day-trading Palantir, $PLTR.
He also bought more stock in the Chinese company Alibaba, $BABA.
He also bought stock in Boeing, less than a month before the massive F-47 contract was awarded to them.
Full trade list up on Quiver.
tweet
JUST IN: Representative Robert Bresnahan just disclosed dozens of new stock trades.
Some of them are pretty interesting:
He is apparently day-trading Palantir, $PLTR.
He also bought more stock in the Chinese company Alibaba, $BABA.
He also bought stock in Boeing, less than a month before the massive F-47 contract was awarded to them.
Full trade list up on Quiver.
tweet
AkhenOsiris
FT:
The public markets risk becoming a dumping ground. When the best assets are hoarded by private equity firms, venture capitalists, sovereign-wealth funds, and family offices, the IPO market gets the leftovers. As FTAV wrote on Thursday, CoreWeave, for all its AI hype, has massive debts, huge capex requirements, mounting losses, rapidly depreciating assets, a slew of related-party dealings, and a significant dependence on just two customers (Microsoft and Nvidia). Yet here it was, looking for public investors willing to take the plunge. CoreWeave is seeking public investment not from a position of strength, but out of necessity.
The same pattern played out with WeWork and other cautionary tales — companies that didn’t go public because they were ready but because they had no other choice. The IPO market is ostensibly the showcase for the best and brightest. Now, increasingly, it’s the venue for the desperate and the distressed, a place where overhyped, overleveraged, and overrated companies try to hang on long enough for insiders to exit.
If CoreWeave and Venture Global represent the vanguard of the IPO revival, we’re in trouble. Public markets should be a launchpad for great companies, not a last resort for troubled ones. The only hope is that enough high-profile flops will force a reckoning, steering investors back towards quality — or at least rational pricing. After all, private shareholders can’t hold on forever.
tweet
FT:
The public markets risk becoming a dumping ground. When the best assets are hoarded by private equity firms, venture capitalists, sovereign-wealth funds, and family offices, the IPO market gets the leftovers. As FTAV wrote on Thursday, CoreWeave, for all its AI hype, has massive debts, huge capex requirements, mounting losses, rapidly depreciating assets, a slew of related-party dealings, and a significant dependence on just two customers (Microsoft and Nvidia). Yet here it was, looking for public investors willing to take the plunge. CoreWeave is seeking public investment not from a position of strength, but out of necessity.
The same pattern played out with WeWork and other cautionary tales — companies that didn’t go public because they were ready but because they had no other choice. The IPO market is ostensibly the showcase for the best and brightest. Now, increasingly, it’s the venue for the desperate and the distressed, a place where overhyped, overleveraged, and overrated companies try to hang on long enough for insiders to exit.
If CoreWeave and Venture Global represent the vanguard of the IPO revival, we’re in trouble. Public markets should be a launchpad for great companies, not a last resort for troubled ones. The only hope is that enough high-profile flops will force a reckoning, steering investors back towards quality — or at least rational pricing. After all, private shareholders can’t hold on forever.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The S&P 500 falls over -1.5% toward 5,600 and now stands just 75 points away from re-entering correction territory. https://t.co/SkGIljduLh
tweet
BREAKING: The S&P 500 falls over -1.5% toward 5,600 and now stands just 75 points away from re-entering correction territory. https://t.co/SkGIljduLh
There it is:
Long-term US inflation expectations have officially SURGED to 4.1%, the highest level since 1993.
Tariff front-running has led to a $300+ BILLION trade deficit in 2 months and consumer sentiment has collapsed.
Is stagflation ramping up?
(a thread) https://t.co/qI3aGSTqP1 tweet
Offshore
Photo
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $AMZN 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/OCF Ratio: 14.53x
•5-Year Mean: 22.57x
•NTM FCF Yield: 2.43%
•5-Year Mean: 2.70%
As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued using P/OCF
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~55% MORE in operating cash flow & ~10% LESS in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $AMZN is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $101.20B
•Long-Term Debt: $59.72B
$AMZN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA S&P Credit Rating & 48x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL🆗 / ✅
•2020: 11.6%
•2021: 8.9%
•2022: 4.2%
•2023: 10.1%
•2024: 15.5%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2020: 27.4%
•2021: 28.8%
•2022: (1.9%)
•2023: 17.5%
•2024: 24.3%
$AMZN has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2019: $280.52B
•2024: $637.96B
•CAGR: 17.85%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2019: $21.65B
•2024: $38.22B
•CAGR: 12.03%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2019: $1.15
•2024: $5.53
•CAGR: 36.90%
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2019 Shares Outstanding: 10.08B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 10.72B
MARGINS🆗➡️✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 48.9%
•LTM Operating Margins: 10.8%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 9.3%
*Important for $AMZN to continue expanding margins & increase profitability
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~55% MORE in OCF & ~10% LESS in FCF per share
We're using P/OCF instead of P/E. Historical data reveals a stronger correlation between AMZN's share price and Operating Cash Flow (OCF)
Today, analysts anticipate aggressive OCF (per share) growth between 2025 - 2027:
2025E: $13.50 (25% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $16.77 (24% YoY)
2027E: $19.46 (16% YoY)
$AMZN has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $AMZN ends 2027 with $19.46 in OCF per share & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples (photos attached below also include these CAGR estimates):
18x P/OCF: $350.28💵 … ~23.2% CAGR
17x P/OCF: $330.82💵 … ~20.6% CAGR
16x P/OCF: $311.36💵 … ~18.1% CAGR
15x P/OCF: $291.88💵 … ~15.3% CAGR
14x P/OCF: $272.44💵 … ~12.5% CAGR
As you can see, $AMZN appears to have aggressive double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~15x P/OCF, a multiple less than what it’s trading for today (a multiple it hasn’t traded for since 2010) & a multiple that’s justified given its growth rate
Also check out $AMZN FCF growth estimates 📈
2025E: $50.46B (32% YoY)
2026E: $74.06B (47% YoY)
2027E: $108.96B (47% YoY)
AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN FY 2024:
☁️AWS revenue: $107.55B
📈Ads revenue: $56.21B
Combined, these segments generated $163.76B net revenue … with ~37% Operating Income Margin
Today at 196💵 $AMZN appears to be a strong consideration for investment
#stocks #investing
Data: TIKR
Graphs: FAST Graphs
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨�[...]
RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $AMZN 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/OCF Ratio: 14.53x
•5-Year Mean: 22.57x
•NTM FCF Yield: 2.43%
•5-Year Mean: 2.70%
As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued using P/OCF
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~55% MORE in operating cash flow & ~10% LESS in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $AMZN is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $101.20B
•Long-Term Debt: $59.72B
$AMZN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA S&P Credit Rating & 48x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL🆗 / ✅
•2020: 11.6%
•2021: 8.9%
•2022: 4.2%
•2023: 10.1%
•2024: 15.5%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2020: 27.4%
•2021: 28.8%
•2022: (1.9%)
•2023: 17.5%
•2024: 24.3%
$AMZN has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2019: $280.52B
•2024: $637.96B
•CAGR: 17.85%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2019: $21.65B
•2024: $38.22B
•CAGR: 12.03%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2019: $1.15
•2024: $5.53
•CAGR: 36.90%
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2019 Shares Outstanding: 10.08B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 10.72B
MARGINS🆗➡️✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 48.9%
•LTM Operating Margins: 10.8%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 9.3%
*Important for $AMZN to continue expanding margins & increase profitability
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~55% MORE in OCF & ~10% LESS in FCF per share
We're using P/OCF instead of P/E. Historical data reveals a stronger correlation between AMZN's share price and Operating Cash Flow (OCF)
Today, analysts anticipate aggressive OCF (per share) growth between 2025 - 2027:
2025E: $13.50 (25% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $16.77 (24% YoY)
2027E: $19.46 (16% YoY)
$AMZN has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $AMZN ends 2027 with $19.46 in OCF per share & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples (photos attached below also include these CAGR estimates):
18x P/OCF: $350.28💵 … ~23.2% CAGR
17x P/OCF: $330.82💵 … ~20.6% CAGR
16x P/OCF: $311.36💵 … ~18.1% CAGR
15x P/OCF: $291.88💵 … ~15.3% CAGR
14x P/OCF: $272.44💵 … ~12.5% CAGR
As you can see, $AMZN appears to have aggressive double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~15x P/OCF, a multiple less than what it’s trading for today (a multiple it hasn’t traded for since 2010) & a multiple that’s justified given its growth rate
Also check out $AMZN FCF growth estimates 📈
2025E: $50.46B (32% YoY)
2026E: $74.06B (47% YoY)
2027E: $108.96B (47% YoY)
AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN FY 2024:
☁️AWS revenue: $107.55B
📈Ads revenue: $56.21B
Combined, these segments generated $163.76B net revenue … with ~37% Operating Income Margin
Today at 196💵 $AMZN appears to be a strong consideration for investment
#stocks #investing
Data: TIKR
Graphs: FAST Graphs
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨�[...]
Offshore
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital® RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $AMZN 🧘🏽♂️ •NTM P/OCF Ratio: 14.53x •5-Year Mean: 22.57x •NTM FCF Yield: 2.43% •5-Year Mean: 2.70% As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued using P/OCF…
� 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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tweet
Offshore
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate for Q1 2025 GDP has been lowered to -0.5%, NET of gold imports and exports.
Including gold, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate is down from +3.9% to -2.8% in under 3 months.
Why are they adjusting for gold?
Because we have seen depression-like purchases of physical gold in the US which are "skewing" the GDP estimates.
Regardless, the Atlanta Fed now sees GDP CONTRACTION in Q1 2025 for the first time since 2022.
Meanwhile, Core PCE inflation jumped to +2.8% this morning.
Stagflation has arrived.
tweet
BREAKING: The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate for Q1 2025 GDP has been lowered to -0.5%, NET of gold imports and exports.
Including gold, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate is down from +3.9% to -2.8% in under 3 months.
Why are they adjusting for gold?
Because we have seen depression-like purchases of physical gold in the US which are "skewing" the GDP estimates.
Regardless, the Atlanta Fed now sees GDP CONTRACTION in Q1 2025 for the first time since 2022.
Meanwhile, Core PCE inflation jumped to +2.8% this morning.
Stagflation has arrived.
There it is:
Long-term US inflation expectations have officially SURGED to 4.1%, the highest level since 1993.
Tariff front-running has led to a $300+ BILLION trade deficit in 2 months and consumer sentiment has collapsed.
Is stagflation ramping up?
(a thread) https://t.co/qI3aGSTqP1 tweet