Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
Stagflation fears are back:
Mentions of “stagflation” in Bloomberg News spiked to ~1,500 over the last few weeks, the highest since May 2024.
Stagflation means persistent high inflation combined with slow economic growth and elevated unemployment.
This comes as inflation has accelerated and GDP growth estimates are falling.
Additionally, leading indicators have suggested that unemployment is set to rise this year.
Most recently, the Fed raised both their unemployment and inflation forecasts for 2025 while cutting GDP growth estimates.
Is stagflation officially here?
tweet
Stagflation fears are back:
Mentions of “stagflation” in Bloomberg News spiked to ~1,500 over the last few weeks, the highest since May 2024.
Stagflation means persistent high inflation combined with slow economic growth and elevated unemployment.
This comes as inflation has accelerated and GDP growth estimates are falling.
Additionally, leading indicators have suggested that unemployment is set to rise this year.
Most recently, the Fed raised both their unemployment and inflation forecasts for 2025 while cutting GDP growth estimates.
Is stagflation officially here?
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: President Trump’s Trump Media has signed an agreement with Crypto .com to launch a series of crypto-related ETFs. https://t.co/5OYSGoenmC
tweet
BREAKING: President Trump’s Trump Media has signed an agreement with Crypto .com to launch a series of crypto-related ETFs. https://t.co/5OYSGoenmC
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
This has rarely ever happened in the past:
The S&P 500 and the US Dollar index have declined -6.5% and -3.5%, respectively since January 31st.
The last time stocks and the Dollar fell in tandem with a move of this magnitude was in 2008.
In the December 2007 to March 2008 period, the S&P 500 and the US Dollar index dropped -10.2% and -5.4%, respectively.
Markets remain at a pivotal point.
tweet
This has rarely ever happened in the past:
The S&P 500 and the US Dollar index have declined -6.5% and -3.5%, respectively since January 31st.
The last time stocks and the Dollar fell in tandem with a move of this magnitude was in 2008.
In the December 2007 to March 2008 period, the S&P 500 and the US Dollar index dropped -10.2% and -5.4%, respectively.
Markets remain at a pivotal point.
tweet
Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨BREAKING: New CEO Insider Purchase
The CEO of $ULTA has just reported purchasing ~$500K of the company's stock.
This is the first insider purchase we have seen at the company in over 4 years.
tweet
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨BREAKING: New CEO Insider Purchase
The CEO of $ULTA has just reported purchasing ~$500K of the company's stock.
This is the first insider purchase we have seen at the company in over 4 years.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Finding Compounders
Bruce Berkowitz runs the Fairholme Fund.
Here is a Barron’s article on him: Betting Big, Winning Big https://t.co/ipXeM3qWYJ
tweet
Bruce Berkowitz runs the Fairholme Fund.
Here is a Barron’s article on him: Betting Big, Winning Big https://t.co/ipXeM3qWYJ
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Hidden Value Gems
An interesting arbitrage opportunity in $TSM - you can buy Taiwan shares at a better price than US ADRs.
✅The ADRs trade at a premium simply because they are easier to buy via US brokerages.
✅This is amplified during bullish retail frenzies, where convenience and access trump valuation.
✅Many fund mandates restrict purchases to local (US) listings only - they can't buy the Taiwan shares even if they’re cheaper.
✅This is not new. At some point in 2000, US ADRs were at a 90% premium to Taiwan local shares.
h/t @FT
#Arbitrage #Stocks #TSMCat
tweet
An interesting arbitrage opportunity in $TSM - you can buy Taiwan shares at a better price than US ADRs.
✅The ADRs trade at a premium simply because they are easier to buy via US brokerages.
✅This is amplified during bullish retail frenzies, where convenience and access trump valuation.
✅Many fund mandates restrict purchases to local (US) listings only - they can't buy the Taiwan shares even if they’re cheaper.
✅This is not new. At some point in 2000, US ADRs were at a 90% premium to Taiwan local shares.
h/t @FT
#Arbitrage #Stocks #TSMCat
tweet