Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The S&P 500 closes +95 points higher and has now added +$1.5 trillion of market cap since its low on Friday. https://t.co/B3PiSUshUm
tweet
BREAKING: The S&P 500 closes +95 points higher and has now added +$1.5 trillion of market cap since its low on Friday. https://t.co/B3PiSUshUm
Are hedge funds fading this rally?
Hedge fund exposure to Magnificent 7 stocks is down 8 percentage points, a LARGER drop than the 2022 bear market.
As a result, the Magnificent 7 has erased -$3 TRILLION in market cap.
What is institutional capital telling us?
(a thread) https://t.co/bFTVHyPgTV tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
Market concentration remains HIGHLY concentrated:
The top 10 stocks now reflect 36% of the S&P 500's market cap, near an all-time high.
Moreover, the market cap of the largest US stock is ~700 TIMES larger than the 75th percentile stock, near the most since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Both metrics currently exceed the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble levels.
Market concentration has eased slightly this year as the biggest stocks have underperformed.
In fact, S&P 500 equal-weighted index has closed higher than the Magnificent 7 in 10 of the last 12 trading weeks.
However, the market is still highly reliant on large cap tech.
The market needs a bottom in big tech.
tweet
Market concentration remains HIGHLY concentrated:
The top 10 stocks now reflect 36% of the S&P 500's market cap, near an all-time high.
Moreover, the market cap of the largest US stock is ~700 TIMES larger than the 75th percentile stock, near the most since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Both metrics currently exceed the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble levels.
Market concentration has eased slightly this year as the biggest stocks have underperformed.
In fact, S&P 500 equal-weighted index has closed higher than the Magnificent 7 in 10 of the last 12 trading weeks.
However, the market is still highly reliant on large cap tech.
The market needs a bottom in big tech.
Are hedge funds fading this rally?
Hedge fund exposure to Magnificent 7 stocks is down 8 percentage points, a LARGER drop than the 2022 bear market.
As a result, the Magnificent 7 has erased -$3 TRILLION in market cap.
What is institutional capital telling us?
(a thread) https://t.co/bFTVHyPgTV tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
Stagflation fears are back:
Mentions of “stagflation” in Bloomberg News spiked to ~1,500 over the last few weeks, the highest since May 2024.
Stagflation means persistent high inflation combined with slow economic growth and elevated unemployment.
This comes as inflation has accelerated and GDP growth estimates are falling.
Additionally, leading indicators have suggested that unemployment is set to rise this year.
Most recently, the Fed raised both their unemployment and inflation forecasts for 2025 while cutting GDP growth estimates.
Is stagflation officially here?
tweet
Stagflation fears are back:
Mentions of “stagflation” in Bloomberg News spiked to ~1,500 over the last few weeks, the highest since May 2024.
Stagflation means persistent high inflation combined with slow economic growth and elevated unemployment.
This comes as inflation has accelerated and GDP growth estimates are falling.
Additionally, leading indicators have suggested that unemployment is set to rise this year.
Most recently, the Fed raised both their unemployment and inflation forecasts for 2025 while cutting GDP growth estimates.
Is stagflation officially here?
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: President Trump’s Trump Media has signed an agreement with Crypto .com to launch a series of crypto-related ETFs. https://t.co/5OYSGoenmC
tweet
BREAKING: President Trump’s Trump Media has signed an agreement with Crypto .com to launch a series of crypto-related ETFs. https://t.co/5OYSGoenmC
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
This has rarely ever happened in the past:
The S&P 500 and the US Dollar index have declined -6.5% and -3.5%, respectively since January 31st.
The last time stocks and the Dollar fell in tandem with a move of this magnitude was in 2008.
In the December 2007 to March 2008 period, the S&P 500 and the US Dollar index dropped -10.2% and -5.4%, respectively.
Markets remain at a pivotal point.
tweet
This has rarely ever happened in the past:
The S&P 500 and the US Dollar index have declined -6.5% and -3.5%, respectively since January 31st.
The last time stocks and the Dollar fell in tandem with a move of this magnitude was in 2008.
In the December 2007 to March 2008 period, the S&P 500 and the US Dollar index dropped -10.2% and -5.4%, respectively.
Markets remain at a pivotal point.
tweet
Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨BREAKING: New CEO Insider Purchase
The CEO of $ULTA has just reported purchasing ~$500K of the company's stock.
This is the first insider purchase we have seen at the company in over 4 years.
tweet
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨BREAKING: New CEO Insider Purchase
The CEO of $ULTA has just reported purchasing ~$500K of the company's stock.
This is the first insider purchase we have seen at the company in over 4 years.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Finding Compounders
Bruce Berkowitz runs the Fairholme Fund.
Here is a Barron’s article on him: Betting Big, Winning Big https://t.co/ipXeM3qWYJ
tweet
Bruce Berkowitz runs the Fairholme Fund.
Here is a Barron’s article on him: Betting Big, Winning Big https://t.co/ipXeM3qWYJ
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Hidden Value Gems
An interesting arbitrage opportunity in $TSM - you can buy Taiwan shares at a better price than US ADRs.
✅The ADRs trade at a premium simply because they are easier to buy via US brokerages.
✅This is amplified during bullish retail frenzies, where convenience and access trump valuation.
✅Many fund mandates restrict purchases to local (US) listings only - they can't buy the Taiwan shares even if they’re cheaper.
✅This is not new. At some point in 2000, US ADRs were at a 90% premium to Taiwan local shares.
h/t @FT
#Arbitrage #Stocks #TSMCat
tweet
An interesting arbitrage opportunity in $TSM - you can buy Taiwan shares at a better price than US ADRs.
✅The ADRs trade at a premium simply because they are easier to buy via US brokerages.
✅This is amplified during bullish retail frenzies, where convenience and access trump valuation.
✅Many fund mandates restrict purchases to local (US) listings only - they can't buy the Taiwan shares even if they’re cheaper.
✅This is not new. At some point in 2000, US ADRs were at a 90% premium to Taiwan local shares.
h/t @FT
#Arbitrage #Stocks #TSMCat
tweet