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The Kobeissi Letter
US household wealth is falling:
US household equity wealth is set to drop a whopping -$3 trillion this quarter, the most since the 2022 bear market, according to BofA estimates.
By comparison, equity holdings rose +$9 trillion in 2024 to a record $56 trillion.
In other words, one-third of last year's gains have likely been wiped out due to the recent market pullback.
Furthermore, the top 10% of the wealthiest Americans own 87% of US stocks.
This, in turn, may negatively impact consumer spending as the top 10% reflect a record 50% of all consumer expenditures.
Consumer spending is set to slow in Q2 2025.
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US household wealth is falling:
US household equity wealth is set to drop a whopping -$3 trillion this quarter, the most since the 2022 bear market, according to BofA estimates.
By comparison, equity holdings rose +$9 trillion in 2024 to a record $56 trillion.
In other words, one-third of last year's gains have likely been wiped out due to the recent market pullback.
Furthermore, the top 10% of the wealthiest Americans own 87% of US stocks.
This, in turn, may negatively impact consumer spending as the top 10% reflect a record 50% of all consumer expenditures.
Consumer spending is set to slow in Q2 2025.
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The All-In Podcast
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Defends @DOGE
@SecScottBessent:
"25% of the GDP of the US pulsates through (Washington, DC) every day."
"And everybody wants to just skim a little."
"I said to @elonmusk, 'You know, people are mad at you because you're moving their cheese.'"
"And he goes, 'It's not their cheese, it's the American people's cheese.'"
@friedberg:
"100%. Every dollar spent goes into someone's pocket and that person is going to fight tooth and nail to get that dollar to keep flowing into their pocket."
"And then it takes a while for the flow of that money to find its way, or those individuals to find their way back into the productive private economy."
" That's where I think there's a big gap and a big challenge in the perception of the actions that are going on with the changes right now."
"Everyone sees the cuts, but they don't see the benefits. And that's 9 months, 12 months, 15 months down the road."
"And that's a really hard thing to reconcile for most."
Secretary Bessent:
"Everyone's hearing cuts and they think their government services are going to get cut."
"And they're not. I keep saying, it's the Department of Government Efficiency, not government extinction, not government elimination."
Thanks to our partners for making the DC trip happen:
@wearehims: https://t.co/AMh4ngrEHo | https://t.co/LNav2Y8k8u
@Gemini: https://t.co/4U7NUkFzaU
@iTrustCapital (use code allin): https://t.co/mwFWDeJVbC
tweet
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Defends @DOGE
@SecScottBessent:
"25% of the GDP of the US pulsates through (Washington, DC) every day."
"And everybody wants to just skim a little."
"I said to @elonmusk, 'You know, people are mad at you because you're moving their cheese.'"
"And he goes, 'It's not their cheese, it's the American people's cheese.'"
@friedberg:
"100%. Every dollar spent goes into someone's pocket and that person is going to fight tooth and nail to get that dollar to keep flowing into their pocket."
"And then it takes a while for the flow of that money to find its way, or those individuals to find their way back into the productive private economy."
" That's where I think there's a big gap and a big challenge in the perception of the actions that are going on with the changes right now."
"Everyone sees the cuts, but they don't see the benefits. And that's 9 months, 12 months, 15 months down the road."
"And that's a really hard thing to reconcile for most."
Secretary Bessent:
"Everyone's hearing cuts and they think their government services are going to get cut."
"And they're not. I keep saying, it's the Department of Government Efficiency, not government extinction, not government elimination."
Thanks to our partners for making the DC trip happen:
@wearehims: https://t.co/AMh4ngrEHo | https://t.co/LNav2Y8k8u
@Gemini: https://t.co/4U7NUkFzaU
@iTrustCapital (use code allin): https://t.co/mwFWDeJVbC
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: President Trump says a rare earths deal with Ukraine has been reached and will be signed shortly. https://t.co/p11eptRYzc
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BREAKING: President Trump says a rare earths deal with Ukraine has been reached and will be signed shortly. https://t.co/p11eptRYzc
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The Kobeissi Letter
This is interesting:
~90% of foreign stock indices have outperformed the US over the last 21 days, the highest percentage since the 2022 bear market.
The share has doubled over the last three weeks as the S&P 500 has pulled back -6.5%.
Over the same time period, the German Dax has risen +2.1% while the Japanese Nikkei 225 has declined -1.4%.
Canada's stock market, the TSX Composite has fallen -0.7% during the same period.
Meanwhile, the UK’s FTSE 100 index has been roughly unchanged.
Will US stocks outperform over the next few weeks?
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This is interesting:
~90% of foreign stock indices have outperformed the US over the last 21 days, the highest percentage since the 2022 bear market.
The share has doubled over the last three weeks as the S&P 500 has pulled back -6.5%.
Over the same time period, the German Dax has risen +2.1% while the Japanese Nikkei 225 has declined -1.4%.
Canada's stock market, the TSX Composite has fallen -0.7% during the same period.
Meanwhile, the UK’s FTSE 100 index has been roughly unchanged.
Will US stocks outperform over the next few weeks?
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Quiver Quantitative
This is pretty wild.
An editor from The Atlantic was accidentally added to a group chat planning the Houthi military strikes.
He allegedly received top secret information on the strike hours before it happened. https://t.co/imeNpNOgyK
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This is pretty wild.
An editor from The Atlantic was accidentally added to a group chat planning the Houthi military strikes.
He allegedly received top secret information on the strike hours before it happened. https://t.co/imeNpNOgyK
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The Kobeissi Letter
Are hedge funds fading this rally?
Hedge fund exposure to Magnificent 7 stocks is down 8 percentage points, a LARGER drop than the 2022 bear market.
As a result, the Magnificent 7 has erased -$3 TRILLION in market cap.
What is institutional capital telling us?
(a thread) https://t.co/bFTVHyPgTV
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Are hedge funds fading this rally?
Hedge fund exposure to Magnificent 7 stocks is down 8 percentage points, a LARGER drop than the 2022 bear market.
As a result, the Magnificent 7 has erased -$3 TRILLION in market cap.
What is institutional capital telling us?
(a thread) https://t.co/bFTVHyPgTV
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Finding Compounders
Warren Buffett explains why Berkshire doesn’t split its stock, in his 1983 letter.
He highlights the importance of attracting high quality shareholders. https://t.co/iUhNHT9bDq
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Warren Buffett explains why Berkshire doesn’t split its stock, in his 1983 letter.
He highlights the importance of attracting high quality shareholders. https://t.co/iUhNHT9bDq
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The Kobeissi Letter
Foreign investors are selling US stocks:
Foreign investors withdrew ~$6 BILLION from US equities funds last week, the 3rd largest amount on record.
Only March 2020 and the March 2023 Banking Crisis saw bigger weekly outflows.
This coincides with ~$4 billion of inflows into European stocks over the last 4 weeks, the most in 10 years.
However, foreigners still own ~$16 TRILLION of US equities, near an all-time high.
This reflects ~23% of the total US stock market's value.
Sentiment continues to see rapid swings.
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Foreign investors are selling US stocks:
Foreign investors withdrew ~$6 BILLION from US equities funds last week, the 3rd largest amount on record.
Only March 2020 and the March 2023 Banking Crisis saw bigger weekly outflows.
This coincides with ~$4 billion of inflows into European stocks over the last 4 weeks, the most in 10 years.
However, foreigners still own ~$16 TRILLION of US equities, near an all-time high.
This reflects ~23% of the total US stock market's value.
Sentiment continues to see rapid swings.
Are hedge funds fading this rally?
Hedge fund exposure to Magnificent 7 stocks is down 8 percentage points, a LARGER drop than the 2022 bear market.
As a result, the Magnificent 7 has erased -$3 TRILLION in market cap.
What is institutional capital telling us?
(a thread) https://t.co/bFTVHyPgTV tweet