Offshore
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The Investing for Beginners Podcast
Compounding machines.
We all want them, hard to find.
Look for those with high ROIC + reinvestment rates. https://t.co/prY2t76wvE
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Compounding machines.
We all want them, hard to find.
Look for those with high ROIC + reinvestment rates. https://t.co/prY2t76wvE
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The Kobeissi Letter
SUMMARY OF FED DECISION (3/19/2025):
1. Fed leaves rates unchanged for 2nd straight meeting
2. Fed says uncertainty around economy has increased
3. Median forecast shows 50 bps of rate cuts in 2025
4. Fed to slow balance sheet runoff beginning April 1st
5. Fed sharply reduces 2025 growth projections
6. Fed marks up their 2025 inflation forecast
The Fed PAUSE officially continues.
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SUMMARY OF FED DECISION (3/19/2025):
1. Fed leaves rates unchanged for 2nd straight meeting
2. Fed says uncertainty around economy has increased
3. Median forecast shows 50 bps of rate cuts in 2025
4. Fed to slow balance sheet runoff beginning April 1st
5. Fed sharply reduces 2025 growth projections
6. Fed marks up their 2025 inflation forecast
The Fed PAUSE officially continues.
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Offshore
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Value Spotlight (Andrew Sather)
Top Quintile ROIC = Steady Compounding
Case in point, $WSO
Shares up +19% annually since IPO in 1989. https://t.co/mJ8BX7dRTw
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Top Quintile ROIC = Steady Compounding
Case in point, $WSO
Shares up +19% annually since IPO in 1989. https://t.co/mJ8BX7dRTw
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Offshore
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The Fed has released their updated dot-plot.
4 Fed officials expect no rate cuts in 2025 compared to just 1 in December.
The median forecast shows 50 basis points of rate cuts in 2025. https://t.co/csDJM5ZKur
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BREAKING: The Fed has released their updated dot-plot.
4 Fed officials expect no rate cuts in 2025 compared to just 1 in December.
The median forecast shows 50 basis points of rate cuts in 2025. https://t.co/csDJM5ZKur
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The Fed makes multiple revisions to their 2025 economic data projections.
1. Cuts 2025 GDP growth projection from 2.1% to 1.7%
2. Raises unemployment forecast from 4.3% to 4.4%
3. Raises PCE inflation forecast from 2.5% to 2.7%
4. Raises Core PCE inflation forecast from 2.5% to 2.8%
The Fed sees higher inflation and a weaker economy.
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BREAKING: The Fed makes multiple revisions to their 2025 economic data projections.
1. Cuts 2025 GDP growth projection from 2.1% to 1.7%
2. Raises unemployment forecast from 4.3% to 4.4%
3. Raises PCE inflation forecast from 2.5% to 2.7%
4. Raises Core PCE inflation forecast from 2.5% to 2.8%
The Fed sees higher inflation and a weaker economy.
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Offshore
Video
The Kobeissi Letter
This clip is from almost exactly 11 months ago:
Fed Chair Powell was asked about stagflation and he said he's not seeing the "stag" or the "flation."
Today, the Fed raised both unemployment and inflation forecasts for 2025, while cutting GDP growth estimates.
We are now seeing the "stag" and the "flation"
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This clip is from almost exactly 11 months ago:
Fed Chair Powell was asked about stagflation and he said he's not seeing the "stag" or the "flation."
Today, the Fed raised both unemployment and inflation forecasts for 2025, while cutting GDP growth estimates.
We are now seeing the "stag" and the "flation"
tweet
Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Greenhaven Road Capital on PAR Technology $PAR US
Thesis: With strong recurring revenue growth, major client wins like Burger King, and a solid acquisition strategy, PAR Technology is on track to scale profitably—potentially becoming a "Rule of 40" company in 2025.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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Greenhaven Road Capital on PAR Technology $PAR US
Thesis: With strong recurring revenue growth, major client wins like Burger King, and a solid acquisition strategy, PAR Technology is on track to scale profitably—potentially becoming a "Rule of 40" company in 2025.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @Stocktwits: BREAKING: Jerome Powell is speaking LIVE...
Watch now and join the chat on Stocktwits: https://t.co/LY6N1TH9bM https://t.co/DJQ6oNHxO2
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RT @Stocktwits: BREAKING: Jerome Powell is speaking LIVE...
Watch now and join the chat on Stocktwits: https://t.co/LY6N1TH9bM https://t.co/DJQ6oNHxO2
BREAKING: The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged, as expected...
Watch Jerome Powell's press conference LIVE on Stocktwits: https://t.co/LY6N1TGBme https://t.co/N26MWhL9Di tweet
Offshore
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Alvin
Apple (Probably): Symmetry is good and it symbolises quality.
Samsung: https://t.co/v55lEuEsz8
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Apple (Probably): Symmetry is good and it symbolises quality.
Samsung: https://t.co/v55lEuEsz8
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The Kobeissi Letter
SUMMARY OF FED CHAIR POWELL'S STATEMENT (3/19/25):
1. Economy is strong, inflation remains "somewhat elevated"
2. Tariffs have driven inflation expectations higher
3. Fed is not "in a hurry" and will await further clarity
4. If the labor market weakens, Fed can ease if needed
5. If economy remains strong, policy restraint can be maintained
6. Made technical decision to slow balance sheet decline
The Fed remains in "wait and see" mode.
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SUMMARY OF FED CHAIR POWELL'S STATEMENT (3/19/25):
1. Economy is strong, inflation remains "somewhat elevated"
2. Tariffs have driven inflation expectations higher
3. Fed is not "in a hurry" and will await further clarity
4. If the labor market weakens, Fed can ease if needed
5. If economy remains strong, policy restraint can be maintained
6. Made technical decision to slow balance sheet decline
The Fed remains in "wait and see" mode.
tweet
Offshore
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The Kobeissi Letter
You can't make this up:
Fed Chair Powell was just asked if tariff inflation is "transitory."
"That's the base case," he responded.
How did we end up back at "inflation is transitory?" https://t.co/53Jr2dE11b
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You can't make this up:
Fed Chair Powell was just asked if tariff inflation is "transitory."
"That's the base case," he responded.
How did we end up back at "inflation is transitory?" https://t.co/53Jr2dE11b
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