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The Kobeissi Letter
Just 63% of Americans are currently able to come up with $2,000 in the event of an unexpected need, the lowest in at least 10 years.
This percentage has declined by 9 points since February 2020, according to the NY Fed.
This comes as household debt hits record highs with pandemic-era savings have been depleted.
$2.3 trillion of accumulated savings have been spent by Americans since mid-2021.
At the same time, US household debt has risen to a record $18.0 trillion.
All while core CPI inflation has been above 3% for 46 straight months.
US consumers are struggling.
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Just 63% of Americans are currently able to come up with $2,000 in the event of an unexpected need, the lowest in at least 10 years.
This percentage has declined by 9 points since February 2020, according to the NY Fed.
This comes as household debt hits record highs with pandemic-era savings have been depleted.
$2.3 trillion of accumulated savings have been spent by Americans since mid-2021.
At the same time, US household debt has risen to a record $18.0 trillion.
All while core CPI inflation has been above 3% for 46 straight months.
US consumers are struggling.
The collapse of US consumers:
Unemployment expectations in the US are now ABOVE 2020 levels and at their highest since 2008.
In 2024, a poll showed that a whopping 56% of Americans thought the US was in a recession.
Is the US set to enter a recession?
(a thread) https://t.co/iQhcQkRGUv tweet
Offshore
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The Kobeissi Letter
This is concerning:
41.8% of US homeowners who sought to refinance their mortgages have received an application rejection, the highest share in over 12 years.
The percentage has QUADRUPLED since October 2023, according to the NY Fed.
Many Americans are seeking to refinance to tap into their recently accumulated housing equity.
This would help to cover rising costs of living and other debt expenses.
Lack of refinancing could at some point force people to sell their homes.
Something must give.
tweet
This is concerning:
41.8% of US homeowners who sought to refinance their mortgages have received an application rejection, the highest share in over 12 years.
The percentage has QUADRUPLED since October 2023, according to the NY Fed.
Many Americans are seeking to refinance to tap into their recently accumulated housing equity.
This would help to cover rising costs of living and other debt expenses.
Lack of refinancing could at some point force people to sell their homes.
Something must give.
tweet
Offshore
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App Economy Insights
Google just dropped its biggest bag ever.
A $32B move to dominate cloud security.
Nearly as much as its 10 largest deals—combined. https://t.co/cEyUTLaejr
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Google just dropped its biggest bag ever.
A $32B move to dominate cloud security.
Nearly as much as its 10 largest deals—combined. https://t.co/cEyUTLaejr
tweet
Offshore
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App Economy Insights
RT @EconomyApp: 💳 Klarna IPO $KLAR
I spent hours reviewing the F-1 so you don't have to.
https://t.co/TWiuSIHqVL
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RT @EconomyApp: 💳 Klarna IPO $KLAR
I spent hours reviewing the F-1 so you don't have to.
https://t.co/TWiuSIHqVL
tweet
AkhenOsiris
Tariff man continues and reiterates no need for Canadian cars and lumber...and NQ ticked higher!
We are fucking back!
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Tariff man continues and reiterates no need for Canadian cars and lumber...and NQ ticked higher!
We are fucking back!
Trump, asked why he’s tougher on Canada than U.S. adversaries: Only because it's meant to be our 51st state. One of the nastiest countries to deal with is Canada. — Fox interview - NewsWiretweet
The All-In Podcast
🇺🇸 all-in takes dc!
@chamath and @friedberg sat down with @USTreasury secretary @SecScottBessent for an incredible long-form interview
-- main street vs wall street
-- the trump admin's economic strategy
-- scott's involvement in the legendary trade that broke the bank of england in 1992
-- how to de-regulate the american economy
-- doge + dc grifts
++ much more!
(0:00) chamath and friedberg describe their adventures in dc and welcome treasury secretary scott bessent!
(2:12) scott's background, what drew him to equities, the role of macro investors
(7:22) the legendary trade that broke the bank of england in 1992, and how it relates to main street vs wall street today
(21:30) scott explains the trump administration's economic strategy
(32:45) how this administration plans to de-regulate the economy, fed relationship, re-financing debt
(42:06) doge, dc grifts, shakeup at the irs
(50:51) re-engineering social security through the us sovereign wealth fund, how energy factors in
(1:00:02) surprises, fixing affordability, thoughts on president trump
tweet
🇺🇸 all-in takes dc!
@chamath and @friedberg sat down with @USTreasury secretary @SecScottBessent for an incredible long-form interview
-- main street vs wall street
-- the trump admin's economic strategy
-- scott's involvement in the legendary trade that broke the bank of england in 1992
-- how to de-regulate the american economy
-- doge + dc grifts
++ much more!
(0:00) chamath and friedberg describe their adventures in dc and welcome treasury secretary scott bessent!
(2:12) scott's background, what drew him to equities, the role of macro investors
(7:22) the legendary trade that broke the bank of england in 1992, and how it relates to main street vs wall street today
(21:30) scott explains the trump administration's economic strategy
(32:45) how this administration plans to de-regulate the economy, fed relationship, re-financing debt
(42:06) doge, dc grifts, shakeup at the irs
(50:51) re-engineering social security through the us sovereign wealth fund, how energy factors in
(1:00:02) surprises, fixing affordability, thoughts on president trump
tweet
twitter.com
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Offshore
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Alvin
This is an appreciation post for MediaTek Dimensity 9400.
Such an underrated smartphone chip.
After using phones like the OPPO Find X8 Pro and vivo X200 Pro, I noticed that they share so many common improvements. Too much of a coincidence to be a coincidence.
For example: the fact that they both run cool even after a prolonged heavy gaming session. No huge throttling too.
Also, they have improved the ISP significantly.
As a result, the camera performance of the Find X8 Pro and X200 Pro seems to be much more reliable even when compared to their Ultra predecessors running a Snapdragon chip.
tweet
This is an appreciation post for MediaTek Dimensity 9400.
Such an underrated smartphone chip.
After using phones like the OPPO Find X8 Pro and vivo X200 Pro, I noticed that they share so many common improvements. Too much of a coincidence to be a coincidence.
For example: the fact that they both run cool even after a prolonged heavy gaming session. No huge throttling too.
Also, they have improved the ISP significantly.
As a result, the camera performance of the Find X8 Pro and X200 Pro seems to be much more reliable even when compared to their Ultra predecessors running a Snapdragon chip.
tweet
Hidden Value Gems
I took a black cab after a concert yesterday as Uber was taking too long to connect to a driver.
The black cab cost me £50, while Uber was under 20 (Exec £37).
Bad decision financially, but got another evidence of the power of the platform. A driver always with clients can charge 60% less and the service is usually better for customers b/c of speed of delivery. Finding a black cab in a residential area is almost impossible.
Network effects can be so powerful.
Need to revisit $Uber case.
tweet
I took a black cab after a concert yesterday as Uber was taking too long to connect to a driver.
The black cab cost me £50, while Uber was under 20 (Exec £37).
Bad decision financially, but got another evidence of the power of the platform. A driver always with clients can charge 60% less and the service is usually better for customers b/c of speed of delivery. Finding a black cab in a residential area is almost impossible.
Network effects can be so powerful.
Need to revisit $Uber case.
tweet
Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
IMAGINE AN AMERICAN POLITICIAN POSTING THIS.
Mocking a man who’s done more for American jobs, innovation, and global standing than many of their entire careers.
Are you kidding me? @elonmusk @realDonaldTrump
Elon, the guy who’s literally employing over 100,000 Americans, built the most valuable car brand in the world from scratch, and turned TESLA into a SYMBOL of AMERICAN manufacturing dominance.
Elon, the guy who’s assisting with the government, slashing waste, and boosting efficiency.
Elon, the guy who saved our astronauts —stranded in space until SpaceX stepped up with American ingenuity.
Elon, the guy who’s revolutionizing energy with solar and batteries, making America less dependent on foreign oil while the politicians bicker.
Elon, the guy who’s pushing AI and infrastructure forward while doing the unthinkable—think Neuralink and Boring Company—while many local governments struggle to even fix a pothole.
How delusional & anti-American are you Mr. Walz?
___
And no, this is not a political statement.
I just laid out facts.
Elon is undoubtedly one of the greatest innovators of our generation, and America is blessed to have somebody like him.
If you’re truly objective, irrespective of which political side you’re on, you’d likely agree with this.
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IMAGINE AN AMERICAN POLITICIAN POSTING THIS.
Mocking a man who’s done more for American jobs, innovation, and global standing than many of their entire careers.
Are you kidding me? @elonmusk @realDonaldTrump
Elon, the guy who’s literally employing over 100,000 Americans, built the most valuable car brand in the world from scratch, and turned TESLA into a SYMBOL of AMERICAN manufacturing dominance.
Elon, the guy who’s assisting with the government, slashing waste, and boosting efficiency.
Elon, the guy who saved our astronauts —stranded in space until SpaceX stepped up with American ingenuity.
Elon, the guy who’s revolutionizing energy with solar and batteries, making America less dependent on foreign oil while the politicians bicker.
Elon, the guy who’s pushing AI and infrastructure forward while doing the unthinkable—think Neuralink and Boring Company—while many local governments struggle to even fix a pothole.
How delusional & anti-American are you Mr. Walz?
___
And no, this is not a political statement.
I just laid out facts.
Elon is undoubtedly one of the greatest innovators of our generation, and America is blessed to have somebody like him.
If you’re truly objective, irrespective of which political side you’re on, you’d likely agree with this.
If you need a little boost during the day, check out Tesla stock 📉 https://t.co/KBEh6pOZLW tweet