Offshore
Photo
iinvested
4Q'24 O'Keefe Stevens on $BYON, $DFIN
Read the full letter here:
https://t.co/dVDkhhwsJS https://t.co/JzNz5mSGg4
tweet
4Q'24 O'Keefe Stevens on $BYON, $DFIN
Read the full letter here:
https://t.co/dVDkhhwsJS https://t.co/JzNz5mSGg4
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
US interest payments are set to rise even higher:
US interest expense on national debt hit a record $1.2 trillion over the last 12 months.
To put this into perspective, defense spending was $900 billion during the same period.
If rates remain FLAT, interest payments are set to hit $1.5 trillion by the end of the year, doubling in just 4 years.
Even if the Fed cuts rates by 100 basis points, interest costs will still hit ~$1.3 trillion in 2025.
This all assumes the economy will avoid a recession or any material economic slowdown.
This is a crisis.
tweet
US interest payments are set to rise even higher:
US interest expense on national debt hit a record $1.2 trillion over the last 12 months.
To put this into perspective, defense spending was $900 billion during the same period.
If rates remain FLAT, interest payments are set to hit $1.5 trillion by the end of the year, doubling in just 4 years.
Even if the Fed cuts rates by 100 basis points, interest costs will still hit ~$1.3 trillion in 2025.
This all assumes the economy will avoid a recession or any material economic slowdown.
This is a crisis.
tweet
Offshore
Video
Finding Compounders
This is the best clip I’ve watched this year
“I don’t need to change the world overnight , I am gonna change the world over the next 50 years” - Jensen Huang, NVIDIA CEO https://t.co/PtH93Ffoye
tweet
This is the best clip I’ve watched this year
“I don’t need to change the world overnight , I am gonna change the world over the next 50 years” - Jensen Huang, NVIDIA CEO https://t.co/PtH93Ffoye
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Stock Analysis Compilation
Artisan US Mid Cap Growth Strategy on US Foods $USFD US
Thesis: US Foods is poised for continued margin growth and enhanced profitability through operational improvements and strategic initiatives in the competitive food distribution industry.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/QGVKcFplWM
tweet
Artisan US Mid Cap Growth Strategy on US Foods $USFD US
Thesis: US Foods is poised for continued margin growth and enhanced profitability through operational improvements and strategic initiatives in the competitive food distribution industry.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/QGVKcFplWM
tweet
AkhenOsiris
Translation: Market was balls deep long Bessent, but it was a Scamath SPAC 😱
Politico:
Bessent’s muted reassurances to financial markets shows there may be no one in the administration willing to stand in the way of Trump’s emboldened mandate for reshaping U.S. economic policy. Stock market convulsions, along with the advice of conventional economic policymakers like Trump’s first Treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, helped temper the president’s protectionist and potentially calamitous priorities during his previous stint in the White House.
Now, “whatever the guard rails that were in place the first administration no longer exist,” said one former Trump administration official, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly.
Wall Street’s initial favorable reaction to Bessent, a George Soros protégé who had little track record in Republican politics before joining Trump’s circle, may have misread his fervor for the president’s agenda.
tweet
Translation: Market was balls deep long Bessent, but it was a Scamath SPAC 😱
Politico:
Bessent’s muted reassurances to financial markets shows there may be no one in the administration willing to stand in the way of Trump’s emboldened mandate for reshaping U.S. economic policy. Stock market convulsions, along with the advice of conventional economic policymakers like Trump’s first Treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, helped temper the president’s protectionist and potentially calamitous priorities during his previous stint in the White House.
Now, “whatever the guard rails that were in place the first administration no longer exist,” said one former Trump administration official, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly.
Wall Street’s initial favorable reaction to Bessent, a George Soros protégé who had little track record in Republican politics before joining Trump’s circle, may have misread his fervor for the president’s agenda.
tweet
Offshore
Video
The All-In Podcast
🚨 Andrew Schulz and Chamath Discuss the Main Street vs Wall Street Disconnect
@andrewschulz:
"Every American thinks they're going to be a millionaire. That's what this country drives off of."
"And the second they stop thinking they will be, or they can be, it falls apart."
"I'm telling you, the you guys of the world need to pay close attention to because there's going to be no empathy if anything bad happens, 'Oh the stock market is down.'"
"No Americans are invested in the stock market. That's all you guys."
@Jason:
" Half of the country is."
@chamath:
" I've been saying it for months. Nobody cares about the stock market. Nor should we."
"And the reason is because we, people who own these assets, have overly benefited more than we've deserved for the last 15 years."
"We took interest rates literally to zero. Anybody like us who could have gone and gotten levered up and gone into the stock market was richly rewarded."
"And the problem is we left everybody else behind."
"And I think the great thing about Trump is he is going to reset that he is going to take a lot of wealth away from asset holders.
"There is no sympathy. I think it's fantastic."
@andrewschulz:
" It's great to hear you even saying that, because I feel like a lot of people that are in your guy's position don't understand that disconnect."
tweet
🚨 Andrew Schulz and Chamath Discuss the Main Street vs Wall Street Disconnect
@andrewschulz:
"Every American thinks they're going to be a millionaire. That's what this country drives off of."
"And the second they stop thinking they will be, or they can be, it falls apart."
"I'm telling you, the you guys of the world need to pay close attention to because there's going to be no empathy if anything bad happens, 'Oh the stock market is down.'"
"No Americans are invested in the stock market. That's all you guys."
@Jason:
" Half of the country is."
@chamath:
" I've been saying it for months. Nobody cares about the stock market. Nor should we."
"And the reason is because we, people who own these assets, have overly benefited more than we've deserved for the last 15 years."
"We took interest rates literally to zero. Anybody like us who could have gone and gotten levered up and gone into the stock market was richly rewarded."
"And the problem is we left everybody else behind."
"And I think the great thing about Trump is he is going to reset that he is going to take a lot of wealth away from asset holders.
"There is no sympathy. I think it's fantastic."
@andrewschulz:
" It's great to hear you even saying that, because I feel like a lot of people that are in your guy's position don't understand that disconnect."
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Finding Compounders
Nick Sleep on the Robustness Ratio.
This ratio is appropriate when analyzing low cost service providers such as GEICO, Costco and Amazon.
This is from my newsletter.
The link is in my bio https://t.co/JOxdiAI5SX
tweet
Nick Sleep on the Robustness Ratio.
This ratio is appropriate when analyzing low cost service providers such as GEICO, Costco and Amazon.
This is from my newsletter.
The link is in my bio https://t.co/JOxdiAI5SX
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
US wage growth is set to cool this year:
The share of private workers voluntarily quitting their jobs fell to 2.1% in November, the lowest since the 2020 pandemic.
The quits rate has declined by 1.2 percentage points over the last 3 years, matching the decline seen during the 2008 Financial Crisis.
In the past, the quits rate has been a leading indicator for the Employment Cost Index measuring employee compensation changes.
This suggests wages and benefits growth in the US may decline from the current 3.8% YoY to as low as 3.0% YoY over the next 6-9 months.
This could also lower inflationary pressures in the second half of the year.
Wage growth seems to be normalizing.
tweet
US wage growth is set to cool this year:
The share of private workers voluntarily quitting their jobs fell to 2.1% in November, the lowest since the 2020 pandemic.
The quits rate has declined by 1.2 percentage points over the last 3 years, matching the decline seen during the 2008 Financial Crisis.
In the past, the quits rate has been a leading indicator for the Employment Cost Index measuring employee compensation changes.
This suggests wages and benefits growth in the US may decline from the current 3.8% YoY to as low as 3.0% YoY over the next 6-9 months.
This could also lower inflationary pressures in the second half of the year.
Wage growth seems to be normalizing.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Stock Analysis Compilation
Artisan US Mid Cap Growth Strategy on Pure Storage $PSTG US
Thesis: Pure Storage is redefining enterprise data storage by utilizing custom all-flash systems sourced from raw NAND flash memory, which positions the company for accelerated growth following its recent hyperscaler data center contract.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
tweet
Artisan US Mid Cap Growth Strategy on Pure Storage $PSTG US
Thesis: Pure Storage is redefining enterprise data storage by utilizing custom all-flash systems sourced from raw NAND flash memory, which positions the company for accelerated growth following its recent hyperscaler data center contract.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
tweet