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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined 3.0% year-over-year in 2024, posting its third straight annual decline.
This matches the 3-year streak that occurred in the 2008 Financial Crisis.
Month-over-month, the index has experienced declines in 32 out of the last 34 months.
Over the last 6 months, the biggest drags on the index were consumer expectations for business conditions and the ISM New Orders Index.
The LEI is now down 15.5% from its peak, nearly as much as in the 1970s and 1980s recessions.
Is the US economy slowing?
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BREAKING: The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined 3.0% year-over-year in 2024, posting its third straight annual decline.
This matches the 3-year streak that occurred in the 2008 Financial Crisis.
Month-over-month, the index has experienced declines in 32 out of the last 34 months.
Over the last 6 months, the biggest drags on the index were consumer expectations for business conditions and the ISM New Orders Index.
The LEI is now down 15.5% from its peak, nearly as much as in the 1970s and 1980s recessions.
Is the US economy slowing?
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Langdon Canadian Smaller Companies on A&W $AW CN
Thesis: A&W’s strong culture, sustainable growth strategy, and undervaluation position it for long-term success in the QSR market.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/cUvPp0mSx9
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Langdon Canadian Smaller Companies on A&W $AW CN
Thesis: A&W’s strong culture, sustainable growth strategy, and undervaluation position it for long-term success in the QSR market.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/cUvPp0mSx9
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Alvin
I have used the Xiaomi 15 Ultra for the past 100 hours.
After comparing its camera performance with the vivo X200 Pro, here's what I think about their camera performance. 📸
Reasons to get the Xiaomi 15 Ultra:
✅ If you want your photos to look very artistic
✅ If you prefer that distinctive "Leica style" (easily identifiable as a photo captured by a Xiaomi x Leica phone).
✅ It is an awesome cameraphone if you love to play around with the options and settings, including manual tuning.
✅ It has faster shutter lag with better shot-to-shot ability (not to be confused with shutter speed).
✅ Xiaomi's style has more "depth" because of its tendency to not boost shadows
Reasons to get the vivo X200 Pro:
✅ If you want to capture excellent photos in any condition without manual tuning, just point and shoot.
✅ It has better overall video performance, more consistent with better video stabilization.
✅ It captures better photos of moving subjects (motion capture).
✅ The X200 Pro has much better consistency when switching between lenses.
✅ It has incredible highlight control and exposure handling.
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I have used the Xiaomi 15 Ultra for the past 100 hours.
After comparing its camera performance with the vivo X200 Pro, here's what I think about their camera performance. 📸
Reasons to get the Xiaomi 15 Ultra:
✅ If you want your photos to look very artistic
✅ If you prefer that distinctive "Leica style" (easily identifiable as a photo captured by a Xiaomi x Leica phone).
✅ It is an awesome cameraphone if you love to play around with the options and settings, including manual tuning.
✅ It has faster shutter lag with better shot-to-shot ability (not to be confused with shutter speed).
✅ Xiaomi's style has more "depth" because of its tendency to not boost shadows
Reasons to get the vivo X200 Pro:
✅ If you want to capture excellent photos in any condition without manual tuning, just point and shoot.
✅ It has better overall video performance, more consistent with better video stabilization.
✅ It captures better photos of moving subjects (motion capture).
✅ The X200 Pro has much better consistency when switching between lenses.
✅ It has incredible highlight control and exposure handling.
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Finding Compounders
Nick Sleep once used the services of an Investment Bank.
He asked them to run a screen( which I mention in my newsletter post ) and it yielded 7 companies .
To know these companies check out my newsletter. - Link in Bio https://t.co/spWpEn7iJB
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Nick Sleep once used the services of an Investment Bank.
He asked them to run a screen( which I mention in my newsletter post ) and it yielded 7 companies .
To know these companies check out my newsletter. - Link in Bio https://t.co/spWpEn7iJB
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The Kobeissi Letter
Americans have rarely been so pessimistic about the future:
US consumers' expectations about their financial situation over the next 5 years is down to an 11-year low.
Financial outlook has deteriorated over the last year as inflation remains a major issue among households.
In fact, ~40% of respondents in the University of Michigan's survey blamed high prices for eroding their living standards.
Moreover, 84% of them expect inflation to OUTPACE their wage growth.
Consumers are exhausted from inflation.
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Americans have rarely been so pessimistic about the future:
US consumers' expectations about their financial situation over the next 5 years is down to an 11-year low.
Financial outlook has deteriorated over the last year as inflation remains a major issue among households.
In fact, ~40% of respondents in the University of Michigan's survey blamed high prices for eroding their living standards.
Moreover, 84% of them expect inflation to OUTPACE their wage growth.
Consumers are exhausted from inflation.
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iinvested
4Q'24 O'Keefe Stevens on $BYON, $DFIN
Read the full letter here:
https://t.co/dVDkhhwsJS https://t.co/JzNz5mSGg4
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4Q'24 O'Keefe Stevens on $BYON, $DFIN
Read the full letter here:
https://t.co/dVDkhhwsJS https://t.co/JzNz5mSGg4
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The Kobeissi Letter
US interest payments are set to rise even higher:
US interest expense on national debt hit a record $1.2 trillion over the last 12 months.
To put this into perspective, defense spending was $900 billion during the same period.
If rates remain FLAT, interest payments are set to hit $1.5 trillion by the end of the year, doubling in just 4 years.
Even if the Fed cuts rates by 100 basis points, interest costs will still hit ~$1.3 trillion in 2025.
This all assumes the economy will avoid a recession or any material economic slowdown.
This is a crisis.
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US interest payments are set to rise even higher:
US interest expense on national debt hit a record $1.2 trillion over the last 12 months.
To put this into perspective, defense spending was $900 billion during the same period.
If rates remain FLAT, interest payments are set to hit $1.5 trillion by the end of the year, doubling in just 4 years.
Even if the Fed cuts rates by 100 basis points, interest costs will still hit ~$1.3 trillion in 2025.
This all assumes the economy will avoid a recession or any material economic slowdown.
This is a crisis.
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