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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The Trump family has been in talks for a stake in crypto exchange Binance, per WSJ.
At the same time, Binance founder Changpeng Zhao has been reportedly pushing Trump for a pardon, per WSJ. https://t.co/zDK7ZADBGs
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BREAKING: The Trump family has been in talks for a stake in crypto exchange Binance, per WSJ.
At the same time, Binance founder Changpeng Zhao has been reportedly pushing Trump for a pardon, per WSJ. https://t.co/zDK7ZADBGs
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Finding Compounders
In Defence of Luck
(This is the best image I could find ) https://t.co/LuCS3YTLS9
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In Defence of Luck
(This is the best image I could find ) https://t.co/LuCS3YTLS9
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: President Trump says "The U.S. doesn’t have Free Trade. We have “Stupid Trade.” The Entire World is RIPPING US OFF!!!"
This comes minutes after Commerce Secretary Lutnick said Canada and Europe "don't respect Trump."
Buckle up war the next phase of this trade war. https://t.co/K0kYeHScYr
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BREAKING: President Trump says "The U.S. doesn’t have Free Trade. We have “Stupid Trade.” The Entire World is RIPPING US OFF!!!"
This comes minutes after Commerce Secretary Lutnick said Canada and Europe "don't respect Trump."
Buckle up war the next phase of this trade war. https://t.co/K0kYeHScYr
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The Kobeissi Letter
Our thoughts on the market's current situation:
1. Inflation data is moving in the right direction, but is this "good" for the stock market?
2. Both CPI and PPI inflation data, headline and core, fell more than expect in February 2025
3. This was the first major piece of economic data under President Trump's trade war
4. Immediately after this, President Trump posted "egg prices are down, oil is down, interest rates are down," effectively applauding his policy moves
5. As we have seen, the market has had a very MUTED reaction to inflation data that would've previously sent the S&P 500 SHARPLY higher
6. Why is this the case? This data provides President Trump a reason to keep doing what he is currently doing
7. Had inflation rebounded, Trump would face backlash as attention would have shifted to the inflationary nature of tariffs
8. Now, the trade war can carry on while President Trump will claim that he is reducing inflation, rates, and the trade deficit
9. This is exactly why markets are not recovering losses following some of the best inflation data in months
10. Lastly, it's clear that President Trump knows economic weakness, or even a recession, is the fastest "solution" to inflation
It has become increasingly clear that President Trump's trade war is not going to be solved overnight.
Buckle up for more volatility in BOTH directions.
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Our thoughts on the market's current situation:
1. Inflation data is moving in the right direction, but is this "good" for the stock market?
2. Both CPI and PPI inflation data, headline and core, fell more than expect in February 2025
3. This was the first major piece of economic data under President Trump's trade war
4. Immediately after this, President Trump posted "egg prices are down, oil is down, interest rates are down," effectively applauding his policy moves
5. As we have seen, the market has had a very MUTED reaction to inflation data that would've previously sent the S&P 500 SHARPLY higher
6. Why is this the case? This data provides President Trump a reason to keep doing what he is currently doing
7. Had inflation rebounded, Trump would face backlash as attention would have shifted to the inflationary nature of tariffs
8. Now, the trade war can carry on while President Trump will claim that he is reducing inflation, rates, and the trade deficit
9. This is exactly why markets are not recovering losses following some of the best inflation data in months
10. Lastly, it's clear that President Trump knows economic weakness, or even a recession, is the fastest "solution" to inflation
It has become increasingly clear that President Trump's trade war is not going to be solved overnight.
Buckle up for more volatility in BOTH directions.
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Gold extends gains amid rising uncertainty, now less than 1% away from a new all time high. https://t.co/hVnX3IiorH
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BREAKING: Gold extends gains amid rising uncertainty, now less than 1% away from a new all time high. https://t.co/hVnX3IiorH
Gold prices are SURGING:
As the S&P 500 has erased $5+ trillion, gold is now set to cross above a record $20 TRILLION in market cap.
Gold has more than QUADRUPLED the S&P 500's return over the last 12 months.
Gold is telling us something. Let us explain.
(a thread) https://t.co/WqihthhhJs tweet
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: S&P 500 futures erase yesterday’s rally and fall toward correction territory on new Trump tariffs. https://t.co/ZaaKmCDPR5
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BREAKING: S&P 500 futures erase yesterday’s rally and fall toward correction territory on new Trump tariffs. https://t.co/ZaaKmCDPR5
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The Kobeissi Letter
The crypto selling spree:
Crypto funds saw -$876 million in outflows last week, the 2nd largest on record.
This was followed by a record -$3.0 billion outflow in the week before.
As a result, crypto funds experienced 4-straight weeks of outflows totaling -$4.8 billion.
Bitcoin funds alone saw -$756 million in outflows last week, one of the largest in history.
Crypto markets have seen a rapid shift in sentiment.
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The crypto selling spree:
Crypto funds saw -$876 million in outflows last week, the 2nd largest on record.
This was followed by a record -$3.0 billion outflow in the week before.
As a result, crypto funds experienced 4-straight weeks of outflows totaling -$4.8 billion.
Bitcoin funds alone saw -$756 million in outflows last week, one of the largest in history.
Crypto markets have seen a rapid shift in sentiment.
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