Offshore
Photo
Finding Compounders
Decoding a Company’s DNA by Mohnish Pabrai( @MohnishPabrai) https://t.co/v6b9wiFEyZ
tweet
Decoding a Company’s DNA by Mohnish Pabrai( @MohnishPabrai) https://t.co/v6b9wiFEyZ
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
Market probabilities of a US recession are rising:
5-year Treasuries are now pricing in a 52% chance of a recession within the next 12 months, up from 45% in November.
Furthermore, recession odds priced-in by the Russell 2000 index spiked to 48% from just 1% in November.
At the same time, the S&P 500's odds of a downturn jumped to 22%.
Base metals also show a 52% probability of a recession.
On the other hand, investment grade and high-yield corporate bonds are pricing in just 8% and 5% chance, respectively.
Is a recession coming?
tweet
Market probabilities of a US recession are rising:
5-year Treasuries are now pricing in a 52% chance of a recession within the next 12 months, up from 45% in November.
Furthermore, recession odds priced-in by the Russell 2000 index spiked to 48% from just 1% in November.
At the same time, the S&P 500's odds of a downturn jumped to 22%.
Base metals also show a 52% probability of a recession.
On the other hand, investment grade and high-yield corporate bonds are pricing in just 8% and 5% chance, respectively.
Is a recession coming?
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Stock Analysis Compilation
Emeth Value Capital on Vivid Seats $SEAT US
Thesis: Vivid Seats is a potential acquisition target, with strategic interest from competitors and investors due to its cost synergies and growth opportunities.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/ft7VnfcCms
tweet
Emeth Value Capital on Vivid Seats $SEAT US
Thesis: Vivid Seats is a potential acquisition target, with strategic interest from competitors and investors due to its cost synergies and growth opportunities.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/ft7VnfcCms
tweet
Offshore
Photo
App Economy Insights
$ADBE Adobe Q1 FY25:
• RPO +12% to $19.7B ($0.1B miss).
• Digital Media ARR +13% to $17.6B.
• Revenue +10% to $5.7B ($50M beat).
• Non-GAAP EPS $5.08 ($0.11 beat).
• Q2 FY25 revenue ~$5.8B (in-line).
• FY25 revenue ~$23.4B (unchanged). https://t.co/B9hToGJejy
tweet
$ADBE Adobe Q1 FY25:
• RPO +12% to $19.7B ($0.1B miss).
• Digital Media ARR +13% to $17.6B.
• Revenue +10% to $5.7B ($50M beat).
• Non-GAAP EPS $5.08 ($0.11 beat).
• Q2 FY25 revenue ~$5.8B (in-line).
• FY25 revenue ~$23.4B (unchanged). https://t.co/B9hToGJejy
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Hidden Value Gems
More resources focusing on making short-term forecasts, you know where the real opportunity lies ...
tweet
More resources focusing on making short-term forecasts, you know where the real opportunity lies ...
The pods are out of control. https://t.co/1NyeMLMwxT tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
US job market is getting worse under the surface:
People working part-time jobs while seeking full-time employment jumped 460,000 in February, to 4.9 million, the highest since May 2021.
Over the last 2.5 years, the number of underemployed Americans has risen by 1.3 million.
These people are now considered part-time as their working hours have been reduced or they were unable to find a full-time role.
As a result, the underemployment rate (U-6) hit 8.0%, the highest since October 2021.
Meanwhile, the number of Americans not in the labor force who currently want a job hit 5.9 million last month, the highest since July 2021.
US underemployment is skyrocketing.
tweet
US job market is getting worse under the surface:
People working part-time jobs while seeking full-time employment jumped 460,000 in February, to 4.9 million, the highest since May 2021.
Over the last 2.5 years, the number of underemployed Americans has risen by 1.3 million.
These people are now considered part-time as their working hours have been reduced or they were unable to find a full-time role.
As a result, the underemployment rate (U-6) hit 8.0%, the highest since October 2021.
Meanwhile, the number of Americans not in the labor force who currently want a job hit 5.9 million last month, the highest since July 2021.
US underemployment is skyrocketing.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Stock Analysis Compilation
Harris International Small Cap Strategy on Auction Technologies Group $AGT LN
Thesis: Auction Technologies Group (ATG) is an online marketplace that connects auctioneers to a vast bidder network, offering significant value through expanded reach and additional services while benefiting from the growing trend of e-commerce in auctions.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
tweet
Harris International Small Cap Strategy on Auction Technologies Group $AGT LN
Thesis: Auction Technologies Group (ATG) is an online marketplace that connects auctioneers to a vast bidder network, offering significant value through expanded reach and additional services while benefiting from the growing trend of e-commerce in auctions.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
tweet