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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The US Government's YTD deficit in FY2025 hit a record $1.15 trillion in February, a new year-to-date record.
The deficit is now $318 billion above 2024 levels for the same time period, or ~38% higher.
This is a crisis. https://t.co/d6Wt5EXqPK
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BREAKING: The US Government's YTD deficit in FY2025 hit a record $1.15 trillion in February, a new year-to-date record.
The deficit is now $318 billion above 2024 levels for the same time period, or ~38% higher.
This is a crisis. https://t.co/d6Wt5EXqPK
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The Kobeissi Letter
Market volatility has rarely been higher:
Call options volume on the Volatility Index, $VIX, hit ~1.5 million contracts last week, the 6th highest reading on record.
Volumes have DOUBLED over the last few weeks with the rise in market uncertainty.
By comparison, during the August 2024 selloff, call options volume hit nearly 2 million contracts.
This comes as the volatility index, $VIX, jumped ~13 points or ~100%, to 28, in 3 weeks.
Is there too much fear in the market?
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Market volatility has rarely been higher:
Call options volume on the Volatility Index, $VIX, hit ~1.5 million contracts last week, the 6th highest reading on record.
Volumes have DOUBLED over the last few weeks with the rise in market uncertainty.
By comparison, during the August 2024 selloff, call options volume hit nearly 2 million contracts.
This comes as the volatility index, $VIX, jumped ~13 points or ~100%, to 28, in 3 weeks.
Is there too much fear in the market?
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Harris Global Concentrated Strategy on Diageo $DGE LN
Thesis: Diageo is a leading global producer and marketer of premium drinks with a diverse portfolio of over 200 brands, positioned for competitive advantages and attractive investment opportunities despite recent market challenges.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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Harris Global Concentrated Strategy on Diageo $DGE LN
Thesis: Diageo is a leading global producer and marketer of premium drinks with a diverse portfolio of over 200 brands, positioned for competitive advantages and attractive investment opportunities despite recent market challenges.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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The Kobeissi Letter
The US Dollar is plummeting:
The US Dollar Index, $DXY, fell 3.5% last week, the second-largest drop since the 2020 pandemic.
The index is now on track for the third consecutive monthly decline.
The majority of the decrease was driven by the Euro, which strengthened 4.7% against the USD, its biggest rise since 2009.
Even as the trade war has escalated, the US Dollar is losing momentum.
Another sign of a historic year ahead.
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The US Dollar is plummeting:
The US Dollar Index, $DXY, fell 3.5% last week, the second-largest drop since the 2020 pandemic.
The index is now on track for the third consecutive monthly decline.
The majority of the decrease was driven by the Euro, which strengthened 4.7% against the USD, its biggest rise since 2009.
Even as the trade war has escalated, the US Dollar is losing momentum.
Another sign of a historic year ahead.
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Alvin
When it comes to the camera system, both of these phones are excellent.
But based on the camera samples that I took, only one of them is truly consistent and reliable as a point-and-shoot camera (vivo X200 Pro).
I won't sugarcoat anything. I had extremely high expectations for the Xiaomi 15 Ultra, knowing that I also found the 14 Ultra to be underwhelming.
I hope they will fix the auto mode via updates.
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When it comes to the camera system, both of these phones are excellent.
But based on the camera samples that I took, only one of them is truly consistent and reliable as a point-and-shoot camera (vivo X200 Pro).
I won't sugarcoat anything. I had extremely high expectations for the Xiaomi 15 Ultra, knowing that I also found the 14 Ultra to be underwhelming.
I hope they will fix the auto mode via updates.
tweet
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Finding Compounders
In the 2013 fund letter, Nick Sleep explains how inactivity is a source of value. https://t.co/rQ1WCR9PJH
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In the 2013 fund letter, Nick Sleep explains how inactivity is a source of value. https://t.co/rQ1WCR9PJH
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Offshore
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The All-In Podcast
J-Cal Explains a New Job Class Created by AI: Reinforcement Learner
@Jason on E218:
"We're going to have a new job class, which is people who train AIs, and people who fact check AIs and refine AIs."
"Journalists, who have been losing their jobs at a tremendous pace, are now being hired by data aggregators to come in and look at queries..."
"Let's say you had an expertise in agriculture, they'll pay you, and I actually saw one of these job descriptions, $40/hour to sit there and answer questions about agriculture, look at answers, refine them, and do reinforcement learning."
"And this could be a $50K to $150K/year job, because every time you make the AI a little better, everybody on the planet gets to benefit from it."
"This is an extraordinary new career. I don't know what it's going to be called. Reinforcement learner?"
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J-Cal Explains a New Job Class Created by AI: Reinforcement Learner
@Jason on E218:
"We're going to have a new job class, which is people who train AIs, and people who fact check AIs and refine AIs."
"Journalists, who have been losing their jobs at a tremendous pace, are now being hired by data aggregators to come in and look at queries..."
"Let's say you had an expertise in agriculture, they'll pay you, and I actually saw one of these job descriptions, $40/hour to sit there and answer questions about agriculture, look at answers, refine them, and do reinforcement learning."
"And this could be a $50K to $150K/year job, because every time you make the AI a little better, everybody on the planet gets to benefit from it."
"This is an extraordinary new career. I don't know what it's going to be called. Reinforcement learner?"
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