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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Yes, $PLTR is a superb business
Yes, $PLTR is one of the most technologically advanced companies
Yes, $PLTR has a sensational CEO, team, & culture
Yet, all this doesn’t mean it was worth ~$295B ($125 stock price) even if $PLTR reaches $7.5B Rev by 2027 (current est $6.41B) https://t.co/ZyfOwrDcEQ
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Yes, $PLTR is a superb business
Yes, $PLTR is one of the most technologically advanced companies
Yes, $PLTR has a sensational CEO, team, & culture
Yet, all this doesn’t mean it was worth ~$295B ($125 stock price) even if $PLTR reaches $7.5B Rev by 2027 (current est $6.41B) https://t.co/ZyfOwrDcEQ
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The S&P 500 officially posts its worst day since 2022, erasing $1.4 TRILLION of market cap. https://t.co/n7Sb8LXMtj
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BREAKING: The S&P 500 officially posts its worst day since 2022, erasing $1.4 TRILLION of market cap. https://t.co/n7Sb8LXMtj
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Giverny Capital on Installed Building Products (IBP) $IBP US
Thesis: Installed Building Products is a profitable insulation installation company that leverages bulk purchasing discounts and expands its service offerings to homebuilders, positioning itself for growth despite current low home starts.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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Giverny Capital on Installed Building Products (IBP) $IBP US
Thesis: Installed Building Products is a profitable insulation installation company that leverages bulk purchasing discounts and expands its service offerings to homebuilders, positioning itself for growth despite current low home starts.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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App Economy Insights
$ORCL Oracle Q3 FY25 (February quarter).
• RPO +63% Y/Y fx neutral to $130B.
• Revenue +6% Y/Y to $14.1B ($0.3B miss).
• Non-GAAP EPS $1.47 ($0.02 miss).
• Dividend +25% to $0.50/share.
Cloud revenue +23% Y/Y to $6.2B:
• Application (SaaS) +9% Y/Y to $3.6B.
• Infrastructure (IaaS) +49% Y/Y to $2.7B.
CEO Safra Catz:
"We have now signed cloud agreements with several world-leading technology companies, including OpenAI, xAI, Meta, NVIDIA, and AMD. We expect that our huge $130 billion sales backlog will help drive a 15% increase in Oracle's overall revenue in our next fiscal year beginning this June. And we expect RPO to continue to grow rapidly—as we look forward to signing our first Stargate contract—yet another big opportunity for Oracle to expand both its AI training and AI inferencing businesses in the near future."
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$ORCL Oracle Q3 FY25 (February quarter).
• RPO +63% Y/Y fx neutral to $130B.
• Revenue +6% Y/Y to $14.1B ($0.3B miss).
• Non-GAAP EPS $1.47 ($0.02 miss).
• Dividend +25% to $0.50/share.
Cloud revenue +23% Y/Y to $6.2B:
• Application (SaaS) +9% Y/Y to $3.6B.
• Infrastructure (IaaS) +49% Y/Y to $2.7B.
CEO Safra Catz:
"We have now signed cloud agreements with several world-leading technology companies, including OpenAI, xAI, Meta, NVIDIA, and AMD. We expect that our huge $130 billion sales backlog will help drive a 15% increase in Oracle's overall revenue in our next fiscal year beginning this June. And we expect RPO to continue to grow rapidly—as we look forward to signing our first Stargate contract—yet another big opportunity for Oracle to expand both its AI training and AI inferencing businesses in the near future."
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Offshore
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Elon Musk says today's cyberattack on X was "linked to IP addresses originating in the Ukraine area." https://t.co/8BQLavVSxX
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BREAKING: Elon Musk says today's cyberattack on X was "linked to IP addresses originating in the Ukraine area." https://t.co/8BQLavVSxX
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Hidden Value Gems
RT @HiddenValueGems: Columbia Business School Stock Pitch Challenge is usually a great source of new ideas. Here is the summary of the top 4 ideas that won this year's competition.
🥇 $AOS - the largest US manufacturer of water heaters
🥈 $CNH - the 2nd largest manufacturer of agricultural equipment worldwide
🥉 $GPN - a Top 5 merchant acquirer in the US
🥉 $IBTA - a digital coupon app, connecting brands with retailers via a network
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RT @HiddenValueGems: Columbia Business School Stock Pitch Challenge is usually a great source of new ideas. Here is the summary of the top 4 ideas that won this year's competition.
🥇 $AOS - the largest US manufacturer of water heaters
🥈 $CNH - the 2nd largest manufacturer of agricultural equipment worldwide
🥉 $GPN - a Top 5 merchant acquirer in the US
🥉 $IBTA - a digital coupon app, connecting brands with retailers via a network
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Offshore
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The All-In Podcast
Major Mag 7 Drawdown: You Heard It Here First 🔮
So far this year, the Mag 7 has seen over $1.5T wiped off of their collective market caps.
Who could have seen that coming!?
On the 2025 All-In predictions show, @chamath predicted a Mag 7 pullback in the trillions of dollars:
"I think when we look back, the absolute dollar drawdown of the Mag 7 will be in the trillions of dollars."
"And the reason is not necessarily because of the underlying fundamentals of these companies."
"But I am a little bit worried ... about the general concentration of the top 7, 8, 9, 10 companies in the indices. I think it's approaching 40%."
" And I think that when you look at these historic concentrations, they've generally foreshadowed a big drawdown."
"And unfortunately, I don't see how you can inoculate yourself from that risk."
"It could even be 10%, but 10% will be a couple trillion bucks."
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Major Mag 7 Drawdown: You Heard It Here First 🔮
So far this year, the Mag 7 has seen over $1.5T wiped off of their collective market caps.
Who could have seen that coming!?
On the 2025 All-In predictions show, @chamath predicted a Mag 7 pullback in the trillions of dollars:
"I think when we look back, the absolute dollar drawdown of the Mag 7 will be in the trillions of dollars."
"And the reason is not necessarily because of the underlying fundamentals of these companies."
"But I am a little bit worried ... about the general concentration of the top 7, 8, 9, 10 companies in the indices. I think it's approaching 40%."
" And I think that when you look at these historic concentrations, they've generally foreshadowed a big drawdown."
"And unfortunately, I don't see how you can inoculate yourself from that risk."
"It could even be 10%, but 10% will be a couple trillion bucks."
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