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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The Nasdaq accelerates its decline and has
now erased -400 points in 27 minutes.
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BREAKING: The Nasdaq accelerates its decline and has
now erased -400 points in 27 minutes.
Truly incredible:
Heavy selling pressure returns moments after stocks turn green.
The Nasdaq just fell -200 points in 8 minutes without any headlines.
Volatility is an understatement. https://t.co/vhIpgdGUbL tweet
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App Economy Insights
$CRWD CrowdStrike Q4 FY25:
📊 ARR +23% Y/Y to $4.24B.
📈 Net new ARR $224M (+6% Q/Q).
• Revenue +25% to $1.1B ($20M beat).
• Non-GAAP EPS $1.03 ($0.17 beat).
• FY26 revenue guide ~$4.78B (+21% Y/Y). https://t.co/DbcXWSv40C
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$CRWD CrowdStrike Q4 FY25:
📊 ARR +23% Y/Y to $4.24B.
📈 Net new ARR $224M (+6% Q/Q).
• Revenue +25% to $1.1B ($20M beat).
• Non-GAAP EPS $1.03 ($0.17 beat).
• FY26 revenue guide ~$4.78B (+21% Y/Y). https://t.co/DbcXWSv40C
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The Kobeissi Letter
What just happened?
Between 3:25 PM ET and 3:52 PM ET, the S&P 500 fell -105 POINTS without any major headlines.
This crash erased -$875 BILLION of market cap, or a whopping -$32.4 billion PER MINUTE.
Did we just witness the biggest bull trap of 2025?
(a thread) https://t.co/nYcSukWmDr
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What just happened?
Between 3:25 PM ET and 3:52 PM ET, the S&P 500 fell -105 POINTS without any major headlines.
This crash erased -$875 BILLION of market cap, or a whopping -$32.4 billion PER MINUTE.
Did we just witness the biggest bull trap of 2025?
(a thread) https://t.co/nYcSukWmDr
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: This is a great question. And a fun one as well, appreciate you asking. Here’s what I would have done differently than Buffett🐐:
1. Steer clear of airline stocks entirely. Even Buffett’s admitted they’ve been a tough bet—look at his exits after in 2020. For me, it’s simple: their returns on capital (~4% on average) rarely justify the cost of capital (~8% on average), and I’d rather not touch a sector with extremely poor economics, no matter the price.
Even Buffett himself asserted that the sector should be avoided in his 2007 Shareholder Letter $BRK.B $BRK.A:
“The worst sort of business is one that grows rapidly, requires significant capital to engender the growth, and then earns little or no money. Think AIRLINES ... The airline industry's demand for capital ever since that first flight has been insatiable.
Investors have poured money into a bottomless pit, attracted by growth when they should have been repelled by it. And I, to my shame, participated in this foolishness when I had Berkshire buy U.S. Air preferred stock in 1989.”
2. I’d also probably dial back a bit on commodity-heavy businesses—think oil or metals—where margins can get crushed by cycles. Instead, I’d lean harder into asset-light companies with wide & sustainable moats—that don’t need constant capital injections but still dominate their lanes (e.g. $SPGI $MCO $ICE $ADP / more $MA $V)
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RT @DimitryNakhla: This is a great question. And a fun one as well, appreciate you asking. Here’s what I would have done differently than Buffett🐐:
1. Steer clear of airline stocks entirely. Even Buffett’s admitted they’ve been a tough bet—look at his exits after in 2020. For me, it’s simple: their returns on capital (~4% on average) rarely justify the cost of capital (~8% on average), and I’d rather not touch a sector with extremely poor economics, no matter the price.
Even Buffett himself asserted that the sector should be avoided in his 2007 Shareholder Letter $BRK.B $BRK.A:
“The worst sort of business is one that grows rapidly, requires significant capital to engender the growth, and then earns little or no money. Think AIRLINES ... The airline industry's demand for capital ever since that first flight has been insatiable.
Investors have poured money into a bottomless pit, attracted by growth when they should have been repelled by it. And I, to my shame, participated in this foolishness when I had Berkshire buy U.S. Air preferred stock in 1989.”
2. I’d also probably dial back a bit on commodity-heavy businesses—think oil or metals—where margins can get crushed by cycles. Instead, I’d lean harder into asset-light companies with wide & sustainable moats—that don’t need constant capital injections but still dominate their lanes (e.g. $SPGI $MCO $ICE $ADP / more $MA $V)
WHY YOU SHOULD AVOID INVESTING IN AIRLINES ⚠️
First, let’s take a look at the last 5-year returns of 4 major airlines:
1) $AAL -67% (American Airlines)
2) $UAL -32% (United Airlines)
3) $JBLU -63% (JetBlue)
4) $DAL -34% (Delta)
Why do airlines post such poor results for investors? It’s simple. On average, here are the economics of the sector:
COST OF CAPITAL: ~8%
RETURN ON CAPITAL (ROIC): ~4%
Would you want to own a business that pays $8 just to receive $4 in return?
Of course not. Airlines BLEED MONEY EVERY DAY.
As Warren Buffett asserted in his 2007 Shareholder Letter $BRK.B $BRK.A:
“The worst sort of business is one that grows rapidly, requires significant capital to engender the growth, and then earns little or no money. Think AIRLINES ... The airline industry's demand for capital ever since that first flight has been insatiable.
Investors have poured money into a bottomless pit, attracted by growth when they should have been repelled by it. And I, to my shame, participated in this foolishness when I had Berkshire buy U.S. Air preferred stock in 1989.”
#stocks #investing tweet
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: President Trump's Commerce Secretary Lutnick says Trump may roll back Canada and Mexico tariffs tomorrow.
He says a tariffs compromise announcement is "likely" tomorrow.
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BREAKING: President Trump's Commerce Secretary Lutnick says Trump may roll back Canada and Mexico tariffs tomorrow.
He says a tariffs compromise announcement is "likely" tomorrow.
What just happened?
Between 3:25 PM ET and 3:52 PM ET, the S&P 500 fell -105 POINTS without any major headlines.
This crash erased -$875 BILLION of market cap, or a whopping -$32.4 billion PER MINUTE.
Did we just witness the biggest bull trap of 2025?
(a thread) https://t.co/nYcSukWmDr tweet
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Conestoga on nCino, Inc. $NCNO US
Thesis: nCino, Inc. is a market-leading provider of cloud-based software solutions for financial institutions, focusing on lending and account services, with 86% recurring revenue and a target to exceed 30% operating margins.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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Conestoga on nCino, Inc. $NCNO US
Thesis: nCino, Inc. is a market-leading provider of cloud-based software solutions for financial institutions, focusing on lending and account services, with 86% recurring revenue and a target to exceed 30% operating margins.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: US Treasury Secretary Bessent says "there is no signing planned" for a minerals deal with Ukraine, per a Fox News reporter on X.
Just 3 hours ago, Reuters reported that Trump and Zelensky were planning on signing the deal today.
Trump was reportedly set to announce it in his 9 PM ET address to Congress.
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BREAKING: US Treasury Secretary Bessent says "there is no signing planned" for a minerals deal with Ukraine, per a Fox News reporter on X.
Just 3 hours ago, Reuters reported that Trump and Zelensky were planning on signing the deal today.
Trump was reportedly set to announce it in his 9 PM ET address to Congress.
What just happened?
Between 3:25 PM ET and 3:52 PM ET, the S&P 500 fell -105 POINTS without any major headlines.
This crash erased -$875 BILLION of market cap, or a whopping -$32.4 billion PER MINUTE.
Did we just witness the biggest bull trap of 2025?
(a thread) https://t.co/nYcSukWmDr tweet
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The IRS is drafting plans to cut as much as 50% of its 90,000 employees, per AP. https://t.co/7K0z0zKQ9N
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BREAKING: The IRS is drafting plans to cut as much as 50% of its 90,000 employees, per AP. https://t.co/7K0z0zKQ9N
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